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PaperclipPerfector  4mo ago (text post)   3097 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for June 9, 2024

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Random shower thought- does low fertility select for a higher percentage of multiple births/twins? People can’t exactly control when they have twins so it’s reasonable to think that a multiple birth meaningfully raises fertility compared to the counter factual, and this is a bigger advantage comparatively when the population average is 1.5 than a historically normal birthrate. Anecdotally every family I’ve known to have multiple births, both religious and secular, proceeded to have the number of pregnancies they would have had if they were all single births.

Yes, but I think that that would be the case when fertility is high, as well, wouldn't it, if twins don't affect pregnancy count?

This would only affect fraternal twins, as I believe only that is heritable.

Probably a bit, but proportionally it’s a bigger difference when tfr is 1.5 than when it’s 3.0.

Is it? When you measure per 1000 births rather than per family I think it wouldn't be?

Multiple births are less affected by family planning decisions. Or so it seems to me.

does low fertility select for a higher percentage of multiple births/twins?

If their fertility is low enough to warrant IVF, then yes, absolutely, the incidence of multiple pregnancy for those undergoing it approaches 30%. Which is great, it's an expensive procedure, so who ought to complain at the chance to get twice the bang/baby for the buck?

I think there's equivocation here on fertility—you mean something like "ability to have children," which while it is what fertility means in common parlance, is, I believe, in technical terminology, fecundity, and hydroacetylene means something like "tendency of the overall population to have children," which is fertility in its technical sense, like the F in TFR.

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