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Right. That's why a bunch of Cohen's testimony, texts, emails, etc were about establishing the motive to pay off Daniels was campaign related. It was Cohen's belief that Trump kept putting off paying Daniels because he hoped he could until after the election, when it wouldn't matter if she went public. That is the perspective of someone concerned about the story's impact on the campaign, not the perspective of someone who didn't want it to get out irrespective of the campaign.
It doesn't matter. Let's say Cohen bought Trump a new suit. They went back and forth talking about how this suit would make Trump look more like an every-man, this other suit made him look more powerful, this one made him look healthier, and how those different impressions would impact the different demographics of voters.
It still would not make the purchase of a suit a campaign contribution. The motive being related to the campaign does not make it a campaign contribution.
The idea here is because Cohen made the payoff to Daniels, that when Trump re-imburses Cohen he has to take into account Cohen's subjective belief made at the time Cohen paid off Daniels; if Cohen thought it was personal, Trump has to pay from personal funds. If Cohen thought it was campaign, Trump has to pay from campaign funds.
Of course this is ridiculous, as is the idea that writing "legal expenses" on a check for money paid to a lawyer who served as an intermediary in a deal is "falsification of business records". It's very imprecise, of course. However, these conclusions have now been laundered through a jury and can no longer be further examined by higher courts.
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I don't know. I think the analysis is more fact intensive than you present here. Distinguish two cases.
In the first case Trump wants a new suit for whatever reason. Maybe he thinks all his current ones are ugly, he ruined his favorite one, whatever. So he and Cohen go suit shopping. Trump happens to be a candidate and there's a debate coming up so they do the discussion you mention about how various suits might look. Ultimately Trump picks one and Cohen pays for it. The debate ends up cancelled and Trump keeps the suit.
In the second case candidate Trump has a debate coming up. He doesn't think any of his current suits will look good enough on the debate stage so he decides to buy a new one. He and Cohen go suit shopping. They have the same discussion about suits and how effective they might appear. Trump picks one and Cohen pays for it. The debate ends up cancelled. Trump gives the suit back to Cohen to return since he no longer needs it.
I think the first case is probably not a campaign contribution but the second case probably is a campaign contribution. The "irrespective" criteria is fulfilled in the first in a way it isn't in the second.
The second case is literally not a campaign contribution. "That’s why another part of the statute defines “personal use” as any expenditure “used to fulfill any commitment, obligation, or expense of a person that would exist irrespective of the candidate’s election campaign.” These may not be paid with campaign funds, even though the candidate might benefit from the expenditure. Not every expense that might benefit a candidate is an obligation that exists solely because the person is a candidate."
Clothing does not count as a campaign contribution. Clothing is personal use. Humans have an obligation to be clothed even if they are not campaigning. And public figures have a commitment to hush up their affairs even if they are not campaigning.
Let's imagine the reverse world:
There is, at the least, reasonable doubt that this action was illegal, and the standard for convicting someone of a felony is beyond a reasonable doubt.
I am not convinced those are general as you assert. The statute also lists "meals" as an example of things that can be campaign expenditures (and therefore outside payment of which can be contributions). The question is not "does Trump have a commitment to buy clothes" its "does Trump have a commitment to buy this specific article of clothing." It's not about the category of thing being purchased, it's about the particular expenditure. I think Trump's attempts to put off paying Daniels until after the election, and his belief he wouldn't need to do so after the election, evince that he had no commitment to paying her outside the context of the then-ongoing election. In any case, this is clearly what Michael Cohen believed, and he's the one who actually committed the election crime.
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