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The Merchan's daughter is working for a political consulting group raising money from Trump's trial. I.e., Merchan's family is profiting from this case. When Trump pointed out this conflict of interest, Merchan's response was to accuse Trump of attacking his family, gag order him, and then hold Trump in contempt for calling this unfair. This is decidedly not treating Trump with "kid gloves".
Why he was held in contempt is irrelevant to the point that he was held in contempt, and the penalties assessed for contempt of court were minuscule, to Trump. No effort was made to assess a penalty that would actually harm Trump, like multi-million dollar fines or imprisonment. That is kid gloves.
I'll make the point here that the judge was legally barred from fining Trump more than $1k for each instance of contempt. He could have jailed him, but he could not have levied multi million dollar fines.
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It goes directly to your false description and whether it was appropriate to even gag him in the first place.
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"We made up something you did wrong, but only punished you slightly" is not kid gloves. Kid gloves are when you punish people lightly for severe offenses.
Terminology aside: Wouldn't your argument imply that they will once again be too cowardly to harshly punish Trump on trumped up charges once we get to sentencing?
If the charges are illegitimate, any sentence is inherently harsh.
As for predictions, I'm not entirely sure. I think it's extremely likely that Merchan will impose something like house arrest that effectively bars Trump from the campaign trail. Jail? I'm not sure they'll go that far, but I wouldn't put money on it.
I'll register that I expect the sentence to amount to nothing until the election is past. By whatever method, Trump will be free to move about as usual until December.
I'll take that bet
Saved. You can force me to steelman anything on here if he goes into custody.
Putting some bounds on this: my prediction is that, in sentencing, Mercham imposes a penalty that effectively bars Trump from campaigning. Jail would count, house arrest would count. Probation or some other arrangement could depend on the terms. If these things don't happen, and Trump is able to go back to campaigning regularly, you win. I would consider myself the winner if Merchan puts Trump under house arrest, and Trump violates parole and goes out campaigning anyways.
I would consider this bet void if for some reason sentencing doesn't happen. But I could be convinced to give you the win if this matters to you. (For example, sentencing gets delayed past the election, for some reason.) I would consider you the winner if Merchan imposes any terms that would otherwise cause me to win, but then immediately pends consequences. (Trump is placed under house arrest, but it doesn't start until after appeals, which end up lasting through the election).
You are welcome to propose amended terms and offer stake, I'm just trying to be fair but won't take this too seriously if it's not something you want to commit hard to.
Ultimately, I think Merchan will say, contempt of court, threat to democracy, 34 felonies, grave offenses, defendent shows no contrition, boom, house arrest / jail. Sorry Mr. Former President, you can have the RNC Convention Speech when you've thought about what you've done and promise to be a good little boy.
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