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PaperclipPerfector  5mo ago (text post)   28012 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of May 27, 2024

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Something I find myself idly wondering these days is whether my moral calculus is changing as I believe the range of possible options is narrowing.

I think there was actually a decent chance of something approaching a viable peace circa the Oslo Accords; maybe if Arafat takes one for the team and risks the fate of Sadat or Rabin, maybe if the Israelis are a little more flexible, maybe a million other possibilities... but whatever the case that is gone. And so is I think my hope that anything can be achieved through diplomatic negotiation. You know back in the '90s there was the fantastic optimism that we could actually settle all these big world problems without it coming to the truck bomb and the bayonet, and for the most part things did OK: the Troubles got resolved, most of the potential genocides in the Balkans averted, the Soviet Union came apart mostly peacefully (which was something of a quasi-miracle I don't think we fully appreciate), a myriad of lesser conflicts were solved or at the very least muted. Maybe, just maybe, we could learn to the bury the hatchet, and I think there was very real and tangible progress toward that end in the Middle East.

Of course that's impossible now, or at least for a generation you'd think. Obviously there's lots of blame on both sides regardless on which frame of analysis you choose, but more to the point is that the respective parties in charge (Hamas and the pro-settlement Israeli hardliners) are both locked in a sort of hostile symbiotic relationship where their actions keep entrenching their ostensible opponent, who in turn further cement the other's legitimacy. I don't see any way to break out of that in the short term, which means no peace by means anywhere within this framework of international law and cooperation.

Which means that you kind of have to pick which side would you prefer to annihilate the other. Because that is the only possible resolution to this in the near-future. Grudgingly I suppose I would pick Israel. But really I'd rather not pick. I don't want any of my government's money or time or attention to go to this. Let them fight or let them make peace but it's got nothing to do with me.

Obviously there's lots of blame on both sides regardless on which frame of analysis you choose, but more to the point is that the respective parties in charge (Hamas and the pro-settlement Israeli hardliners) are both locked in a sort of hostile symbiotic relationship where their actions keep entrenching their ostensible opponent,

This is typical both-sides thinking that I think people resort to because they're desperate to think Israel must have done something to deserve Gazans hating them so much. You can be entirely against settlements and recognise the obvious truth that they have approximately zero effect on Hamas' attitudes towards Israel.

the respective parties in charge (Hamas and the pro-settlement Israeli hardliners) are both locked in a sort of hostile symbiotic relationship where their actions keep entrenching their ostensible opponent, who in turn further cement the other's legitimacy.

This telling seems to assume that absent the settlements, the Palestinians' intergenerational rage would subside and they'd embrace peaceful coexistence with Israel. Do you genuinely believe that to be the case? My weary conclusion is that they're stuck in an intergenerational rage spiral sustained mostly by hope (fueled by the actions of their supporters abroad) that they'll be able to prevail and eliminate Israel. Apace with Richard Hanania, I think peace can be achieved only by crushing their hopes -- and that doing so is worth substantial trauma in the present to break the region out of their seemingly durable and miserable stalemate. In this telling, the settlements are superfluous.

I think at this point the Palestinians (or at least some of their leaders) think if they just hold out for another generation and keep things stirred up so they can accuse the Israelis of genocide, Israel will have lost the PR war and will lose foreign (including US) support. At that point we can get a repeat of the 1948 Arab-Israeli war only with Iran helping out, and then Israel will be destroyed and the Palestinians can spend a few months leisurely hunting down and killing any survivors. It might be a good strategy except for two things

  1. Israel might win anyway.

  2. The Samson Option. The Israelis are at least as stubborn as the Palestinians, and if they think they're losing a war for their existence they will use the nukes. Which is not going to turn out well for anyone.

Also, #3, Israel no longer appears willing to let the current situation fester for another generation.

They don't have a choice; they can't genocide the Palestnians and they can't expel them, so the best they can do is put them under military occupation.

Yeah. They can also try to negotiate with a third country for their expulsion.

Nobody wants the Palestinians.

It may not work. But I bet Israel could offer a lot in exchange, especially to a country that doesn't have much to begin with. There were reports that Netanyahu was negotiating with Congo, for example.

The Palestinians would quickly take over the Congo (a few thousand Lebanese dominate several sectors of Nigeria’s economy already, and of course Arabs are highly powerful in Central America) and then use tens of billions of dollars made from resource sales to fund jihadist efforts in the homeland. Doesn’t seem smart from the Israeli perspective.

The only real ‘solution’ along population transfer lines was for them to all move to Egypt/Syria etc in the late 40s and early 50s, with no special UN refugee rights, and that obviously didn’t happen.

The Samson Option. The Israelis are at least as stubborn as the Palestinians, and if they think they're losing a war for their existence they will use the nukes. Which is not going to turn out well for anyone.

If you're playing the long game there's a future where some Middle Eastern Muslim state gets nukes. This makes Israel just genociding the Palestinians and/or its other enemies a much more fraught endeavor. Such a nation might not have a choice but to signal it'd intervene, or its leadership could be overthrown.

That still leads to a nuclear war in the Middle East, just a less one-sided one. The Palestinians still lose, though they may not care; they'd probably prefer for their remnant population to live in the radioactive ruins of Jerusalem dominated by Iranians than to live in the West Bank dominated by Jews.

As 2rafa said, the line is that Israelis are colonists and will fold and "go home"...somewhere. How much people believe that line or it's just the best PR position, I dunno. They walk around carrying keys to houses they've never seen. Who knows how many drunk the Koolaid?

I doubt Palestinians outright want to burn. But are they willing to gamble on burning if they believe that, when Israel no longer has the ability to act with impunity and has to choose between mutual annihilation and backing down, it will fold?

Israelis are colonists and will fold and "go home"...somewhere.

Do Palestinians actually say this? I’ve definitely heard it from their Hajnali groupies. But it seems like Palestinians miss the days of Hitler.

As 2rafa said, the line is that Israelis are colonists and will fold and "go home"...somewhere.

That's just a line used because it ties in with the progressive project. My read is that the Palestinians would accept the Jews leaving, but they'd prefer them dead.

I doubt Palestinians outright want to burn. But are they willing to gamble on burning if they believe that, when Israel no longer has the ability to act with impunity and has to choose between mutual annihilation and backing down, it will fold?

The choice they would give the Israeli Jews is between mutual annihilation and unilateral elimination, and the Jews are going to pick mutual every time.

This telling seems to assume that absent the settlements, the Palestinians' intergenerational rage would subside and they'd embrace peaceful coexistence with Israel. Do you genuinely believe that to be the case?

I don't think it's so easy to say. But the settlements are very obviously a sore spot for Palestinians, and more to the point seem to indicate that making deals with Israel is a fruitless gesture - any diplomatic agreement is not worth the paper they are written on if Israel will just move in settlers at gunpoint. And it isn't just Palestinians that Israel is double-crossing with respect to the settlements, they make these deals with their allies to limit them and go do them anyways. From the perspective of a secular Palestinian, why on earth would you trust a foe who willingly violates the trust of their friends, let alone their enemies?

I don't think we need to reach the question of whether the settlements are a good idea, or a morally just course of action for Israel. All that we need for present purposes is skepticism that the settlements play a causal role in the Palestinians' intolerable bloodlust. And my cup runneth over with skepticism on that front.

both locked in a sort of hostile symbiotic relationship where their actions keep entrenching their ostensible opponent, who in turn further cement the other's legitimacy.

I believe Scott (PBUH) coined the term “toxoplasmosis of rage” to describe exactly this sort of escalatory spiral

There is that element of it, but I suspect that both Hamas and the Israeli right are a little more deliberate about it than parasites. I think they to a certain extent deliberately prop up each other, and seek to antagonize them.

Bezalel Smotrich infamously had that 2015 quote about Hamas being an asset:

“The Palestinian Authority is a burden and Hamas is an asset. On the same international field, in this game of delegitimization, and think about it for a moment: the Palestinian Authority is a burden, and Hamas is an asset. It is a terrorist organization. No one will recognize it. No one will give it status at the ICC. No one will let it put forth a resolution at the U.N. Security Council. ...”

That's some galaxy-brained thinking, right there.

It's not so exotic, really. If your goal is to crush your opponent, it is to your benefit for them to discredit themselves.

It isn't necessarily a good tactical move to speak that observation into the microphone, of course...

In terms of "adopting a strategy that sacrifices one's own people for the greater good", it's quite in line with Hamas' thinking.

Kind of a similar category to Biden's campaign secretly hoping for Trump to say the n-word or something. Do you want a major presidential candidate to say the n-word? If you're American, no; better that we have two enlightened saints arguing based on high-minded principled policy differences. But if you're the Biden campaign, of course you do. And that doesn't make Biden analogous to Hamas in any central sense.

Kind of a similar category to Biden's campaign secretly hoping for Trump to say the n-word or something.

You mean like this Vox article from yesterday?

That is what I was thinking of, yes :)

No, this is like Hillary Clinton (and the rest of the like-minded Democratic establishment) wanting Trump as her opposition because he looked like such a doofus to her. Seemed like a great idea, up until he won, and now the majority of the Republican party is behind him, and his attitude is becoming more and more dominant on the right. This is the future she (and her people) made.

Smotrich could go on saying "it's good that our opposition is terrorist", right up until they raped, killed, and kidnapped a bunch of Israelis. It's the fable of the scorpion and the frog - what did he think terrorists do, occupy campuses and chant slogans? But maybe Smotrich thinks that sacrificing a small number of his own people will help him in the long run. Just like Hamas thinks that sacrificing a small number of their own people will help them in the long run.

I mean, I can't speak for Smotrich, but if his goal is to crush the dream of Palestinian statehood, that project does seem to be further along now than it was on October 6.

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