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100ProofTollBooth


				

				

				
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joined 2023 January 03 23:53:57 UTC

				

User ID: 2039

100ProofTollBooth


				
				
				

				
1 follower   follows 0 users   joined 2023 January 03 23:53:57 UTC

					

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User ID: 2039

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Link: https://www.natesilver.net/p/how-culture-trumps-economic-class

From the article:

In 2020, something unprecedented happened in recent American politics: Democrats won the wealthiest voters, or at least the wealthiest subgroup that the exit polls tracked that year (people making $100K or more). Among poorer voters, the story is more complicated. Biden did just a hair better with the white working-class than Clinton — not a lot better, but enough to get him over the finish line in the Upper Midwest — but considerably worse than her with Hispanics and slightly worse among Black voters.

Then forget about learning how to do the job before you do it. You won't, and you might bring in some preconceived notions that actually hinder you.

  1. Work Hard
  2. Be willing to fail and then learn
  3. Ask for help
  4. Talk to people. Cold outreach e-mails work
  5. Understand you're going on probably the most difficult emotional journey of your life aside from a big relationship thing (wedding, divorce) or other family relevant stuff (birth of children)
  1. Simply watching one's weight is sufficient to lose weight
  2. Survivorship bias: only the people who lost weight report it

Pretty much these two things. Most diets fail because the diet-er just stops.

the Pope's rather unusual looking sculpture

Holy Fuck that's fucking metal as shit. Fuckin' Deus Vult, Bro.

As a tradcath (perhaps I need to downgrade myself to aspiring tradcath, thanks, @hydroacetylene) it's important to me that people realize the deep history of badassery present in religious art.

The 1970s Peter-Paul-and-Mary-ization of American Churches and hymns really did far too much to turn the aesthetics fake and gay.

[1]: If you are into cryptocurrency, watch the episode of Alexi Friedman with the founder of Cardano on it. He talks for like 6 hours and says NOTHING. This is a good example of what a 2024 motte poster does in most top level posts.

My favorite part of that interview was him repeatedly saying "normies are too dumb to understand crypto so we can't let them use it. Also, it's very important that everyone uses crypto." He should'e had his wife's boyfriend review his notes.

Trump won the >$100k/yr vote in 2020* and his electoral coalition was significantly whiter and older than Biden's.

I believe you are incorrect. [This Nate Silver article] specifically says it went the other way. More importantly, and to @jeroboam 's point ... the realignment is still happening.

@jeroboam - Re: your fact about major corp's donations; It was the NYPD and ... The United States Marine Corps. God Bless the Alcoholic Gun Cult.

I feel like @FiveHourMarathon might have worthwhile input here.

He is of a noble lift-bro tribe that my elders (Mark Rippetoe) have told legends of.

breaks the association

This isn't how your - or anyone's - body works.

Here's all of dieting summed up:

  • Processed foods and sugar are the devil. You have to stop eating them completely. There is no other way.
  • Put protein at the center of your diet. Every full meal you eat should contain a non-trivial amount of protein. Protein is meat, poultry, pork, eggs, and dairy. You can supplement (but not replace) with protein powders.
  • Figure out if you are fat or carb sensitive. Most people just retain a lot more of one or the other. You do this by keeping track of what you're eating day-to-day, nothing how you feel (lethargic, tired, etc.), and then weighing yourself.
  • Like sleep, regularity is important. Eat at the same times as much as possible (this is hard when traveling, I understand that). Snacks can be snacks in that they're smaller meals. They can't be absent minded. Plan your snacks.
  • Hydrate

The High Growth Handbook (this is a link) is a good starting point.

One of Seth Godin's book is also good from a concepts / abstract perspective.

Do you have any Sales and Marketing experience?

4 weeks .... in a few months, this will seem like an luxury of time.

I mean ... the game is the game.

You catch a hot one posted up on the corner, you can say "fuck it" and bounce. Or you can step the fuck up and get back in the mix. You do you, playboy. Game gonna stay the game.

--- Dick Cheney (probably)

I've not heard of business deals being cut on the deer lease in the same way as on a golf course.

You do it at the bar at the lodge after.

If an actual hunter type businessman invites you on an outing, that's a pretty huge deal. It's also a test. If you can't shut the fuck up for a while, if you get bored and can't focus, if you're cranky in the cold / rain.

Golf Business is much more a direct extension of the boardroom but outside and with beer. Hunting is more.

... Unless they're not actually a hunter and just want to blast away. In which case, you'll be back before lunch.

You're right. And it wasn't lost on me the weird parallel between Hobbes and feminists that emerged when I wrote the response. I can't say I've totally wrapped my own head around it. All of us Trads do say "We need trade values or else society will fall apart." But it's couched heavily with the idea of personal choice; "You can choose to not follow Trad values, but then your life is going to be shitty." I'd contrast that with the progressive concept of culture which is fundamentally authoritarian; "You MUST adhere to the approved cultural norms, or else you are dangerous and will be excluded from society."

"Teach men not to rape" is too far of an extreme because I think the implicit assumption is that men are born with the rape module turned up to 10. I don't think this is the case. Men (and women!) are born with the basic mammalian firmware desires for food, water, shelter, reproductive activity. The duty of society is to teach men and women how to go about fulfilling these fundamental needs in pro-social ways.

Appreciate your comment. One of the better "stop and made me think" situations I've had on here in a while.

Women it appears are aware of the Leviathian shaped hole, even if they have mever heatd of Hobbes.

An old redpill/manosphere saying was "Men are the real romantics, while women are, at the end of the day, the hardcore realists"

Validity of that statement aside, I think your phrasing is far better and more inclusive of real cultural dynamics.


Of course that is just a subset of the idea that more of us would murder or commit violence in general in the absence of a restraining force. The state of war of all against all.

Is this not self-evidently true? Societies with weaker social/cultural/legal system infrastructure have higher rates of physical violence, SA, etc. There's the infamous (repeated!) studies on Papua New Guinea pointing out how it's Heart of Darkness levels of pain and chaos.

Does this mean that inside the heart of every man is an eager but repressed rapist? Of course not. That's on-its-face wrong. The entire point of well developed social/cultural/legal system development is to leverage the inherent social conformist nature of humans to build broad pro-social patterns of behavior. In fact, those who fail to conform in the extreme are either/both (a) locked up permanently and/or (b) labeled as cognitively malfunctioning. This is a good thing. What could be looked at as "boys will be boys!" behavior to an A.D. 1000 viking is now seen as "criminally insane and unsafe for anything besides lifelong warehousing."

As I understand it, it's the assertion that whenever someone identifies a societal problem and begins asking "why is it like this? what can we do about it" the answer is that the identified problem arises from something we ought to already be aware of; base human nature.

The solution (what Hlynka used to point to as the piece that would fit into the "Leviathan Shaped Hole") is often some mix of traditional cultural values, a stronger executive within the state Apparatus, more rigidly defined social roles for men/women/minorities/majorities. I'll admit that on this last part, I could be a little wrong as Hlynka's writing was often a little impenetrable.

I hope I'm close enough here.

For somebody like me, it probably wouldn't.

From what you said it seems to me that you do not understand how people that are very different from you work.

Could've gone other way, you never know.

No, that was pure luck in my opinion.

But sometimes the best way to the goal is not rushing at that direction headlong, but instead walk some roads not taken.

Continue to amble along amiably, meandering through life, wishing providence smiles on you. Is this an accurate representation of your preferred strategy?

just that one must be careful that it may not apply to everyone,

Then let me be explicit; my advice may not apply to everyone

and if it doesn't work for somebody, it doesn't mean they are even more of a loser than they thought

Nowhere did I say this. You did. My introductory "loser" comments were caveated upfront.

but that there are other ways that would be better for them.

How can I possibly know this about another person who I have never met?

Like, for example, find communities online where once could practice talking with various people.

This. Isn't. Talking. To. People.

Maybe even with people of female persuasion without trying to score with them ;)

OP is literally asking for ways to get better at dating

just maybe not jump right into that if that's not what you're comfortable doing.

What is more important to OP? Developing comfort with current situation, or seeking to change current situation? I suppose that's a question for him.

That depends a lot of what you mean by "said".

Dude.

What was the first thing for which you used your face hole to send sonic vibrations to her?


Whenever there's a line-by-line quote-response breakdown in the replies, it's always because someone (in this case, me) has taken issue with what they feel to be a very bad argument. I freely admit this is the case.

None of what you have said is in anyway wrong, debased, or could be considered offensive. But I think literally all of it is ineffective based on what I believe OP's goals to be. I know I'm getting close to Jordan Peterson territory here and I'll resist the urge to start shouting "MAKE YER BED." But I think that most gradualist self-improvement advice is ineffective and is ultimately a road to developing new and fun copes for bad situations. All good self-improvement advice is a variant of "you're going to have to do things that aren't comfortable, but then things will improve for you." So, that's what I'm offering OP. That it may not be comfortable for him is precisely the point. Now, to try an find some middleground, if OP really does believe my advice will also be ineffective, he's more than free to ignore it.

I believe you haven't offered any advice that is more effective. I believe you had only offered advice that is ineffective. I believe you have prioritized comfort relative to the current state over absolutely improved future state.

I will await your reply wherein you tell me "Well it must've worked! - I'm married!"

What was the first thing you said to your wife?

"I don't think your advice will work for me," Is a valid thing to say. I offered my best possible advice with genuine intent.

I'm reading Hesse's Steppenwolfe right now and it strikes me as the self-aware version of Underground quite a bit. Not finished yet, so it could change.

It's fun reading Underground at different points in your life. The extent to which I sympathized with the protagonist as I douchey college type is now pure chuckle-memory to my now Based Giga-Chad self. Ah fuck I see what I did there.

I am a loser

What makes you say this? I'm not trying to give you an internet pump-up speech along the lines of "you're probably pretty great!"

No, I will accept at face value that you fucking suck, loser. Now, let's identify the problem.

Are you short and skinny? Do you smell and dress bad? You say you have a fair bit of money. Did you earn it or did someone die an leave it to you?

The point is that getting out of loserdom is really just a project like anything else. Identify what is lacking, create plans for compounding improvement, execute those plans, track and log progress, adjust along the way.

Here's a generalize bullet list that 99% of dudes benefit from:

  1. I'm a physical loser ---> Go to the gym. There are a million beginner lifting routines. Do one. After six months, add a competitive sport. Doesn't have to be MMA / BJJ, just something where there is a definite winner and loser and people take it seriously. Don't do beer league softball.

  2. I'm a social loser ---> Get good at small talk. Start by making short observations at checkout lines. Try to make simple jokes. If it goes poorly, you're in a checkout line and the interaction will end in literally seconds. You'll know you're getting good when it becomes almost second nature and you can get a chuckle most of the time. Next step, start going to bars and doing this with the bartender (doesn't matter if they're male or female). Most of their day is spent making small talk to medium talk (i.e. bullshitting with regulars about their jobs or whatever). They're pretty much on autopilot and also paid to be nice, so they'll help the conversation along even if you still kind of suck. This will help you get better at developing a few quick "lines" into full on conversations. An option but not really recommended step is to do this at strip clubs. Again, I don't recommend it but have great stories. I digress.

  3. I'm a loser loser, meaning I have no confidence in myself ---> Paradoxically, one of the easier ones to solve. Confidence comes from exactly one process; demonstrate competence in a difficult task. You will pick a medium term task or project that seems hard, and then you will do it. Build a website, build a birdhouse, organize a party, train for an complete a 10k, something that takes around 90 days. Pick it. Do it. Write about it as you are doing it in a journal style. At the end, after you do it, read the journal, relive the emotional journey and realize "I did it even though it was hard along the way." Boom, confidence.

  4. I'm an internet loser. This is guy code for "I watch porn." It's easy - stop.

akin to the cybersecurity or military strategy

"Defense in Depth" means something very different in the cyber versus the traditional military context.

It's a real shame that the term was re-used but then also redefined. So, unfortunately, I think your analysis is confused and self-contradictory not because of a failure of your personal construction, but because the terms and the concepts underlying them can't be swapped out as easily as you may have assumed.


Directly answering your intro question - hard no. Conspiracy theories about the all-powerfulness of the amorphous "intel" cabal of the USA I always dismiss out of hand because the axiomatic assumption underpinning it is that they're all powerful. "Could an all powerful entity do ... stuff!?" Yes, yes it could.

The sad fact of the matter is that the really cooky progressive stuff is the result of a Long March through the institutions paired with the kind of narcissism that can only result from the most prosperous generation of all time (boomers) failing to introduce their children (millennials) to reality. If you grow up richer than all other humans and never leave the suburban never-never land (even into college), tinker belle starts talking about polyamory, and then everyone starts calling your green tights gay, then, yeah, maybe cheering for the Islamic Death Cult helps you work through those emotions.

Phrased differently; social progressivism is make believe that has survived as a political ideology only briefly. Remember, 10 years ago we were in lame duck Obama years and looking at an at the time probable Bush-Clinton 2: Electric Boogaloo contest in 2016. Then the Orange rolled down the escalator and changed the game. 10 years in politics / social ideologies isn't nothing, but it isn't that long. The hard left is dying quickly before our eyes (big caveat here: the overton window has been shifted so much that the non-hard left is still pretty nuts.)

MAGA types are going to take multiple victory laps as the hard left continues to decline, but they've problems of their own. If the hard left is political make believe, the hard right is nihilistic fatalism. We had Walt Bismarck around these parts not too long along. Reading his substack is both worth it and difficult. Worth it in that a lot of his highlighted problems are very real and very well analyzed. Difficult because a lot of the solutions are heavily caveated "...but, even still, I don't think society is recoverable."

Looking in the mirror, earlier this week or last week, I got called out for unintentionally recommending a Benedict Option. That one made me think. Nihilism and fatalism aren't self-sustaining ideologies for obvious reasons. Worse, they don't actually cultivate pro-social and pro-growth behavior in a constituency. I saw a funny thing during the heart of the pandemic; my progressive friends were barricaded in doors wearing their CBRN costumes during zoom meetings - they mostly got a little fat, posted on Twitter more, and got good at home brewing anxiety. My MAGA friends stayed outside, went to spring break --- and got constantly shitfaced without a second thought. They definitely "owned the libs" at their end of the world party. And now, even those who think Trump: Deuces Wild is inevitably going to premier in November walk around very much like a doomsday cult that had their D-Day come and go without the rapture and are now feeling empty, fearful, and unprepared.

And none of this is the real threat to America.

Because that's China.

Is there any good online poker (actual money or just fun money) left? Or is it all weird bots / scams?

I'd like to start playing mostly as a way to have some non-passive fun (I can't just do movies / shows / books every night).

Related; any good medium to advance "how to play poker" guides? I don't mean absolute beginner stuff, but anything that gets into deeper probability / behavioral theory. Think if Doyle Brunson wrote Super System but he was a MIT game theory PhD dropout first.

a higher fraction of socially conservative tradcaths.

I have been summoned.

Hmm, okay. There's something here.

Totally agree with your latest comment (especially like the Nash equilibrium usage) ... And also agree that the big changes do happen under an authoritarian model (especially if a crisis is involved; Civil War, WW2, 2008 Financial Crisis).

But my value assertion remains the same - we shouldn't ever really be ok with an authoritarian system.

So, I guess the question / problem becomes - I am being naive and wishful in thought that it will never happen again (probably?) If it's unavoidable, should we seek to steer towards "conservative authoritarianism", however that odd term is defined? I take it that that's roughly your/@2rafa's position?

But yes your overwrought "I can't even leave my red state or I'll be persecuted" schtick is silly, false and just wrong at an objective level.

Why do you need to say this?

Up to this comment, I think you could summarize the exchange thusly:

TollBooth: Something something, I'm a red stater, get off my lawn

French: "That's goofy. You're goofy. Stop being goofy"

TollBooth: "Fine. You got me. Here's me being tongue-in-cheek and a reasonable cessation to our mostly pointless disagreement"

And then you have to go "you are just wrong at an objective level."

Y tho?

the world is a big beautiful place and just because people have a different opinion on some issues doesn't make it dangerous to visit other states or countries.

Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.

Do some traveling, step out of your comfort zone and you'll find that your fears are unwarranted.

Nice try, NSA.

This is fox news 80 year old grandpa levels of living in a fear bubble.

Get. Off. My. Lawn.


Look, the above section is playful and obvious trolling because you and I just aren't going to agree. Do I have ideological consternation when I'm in liberal cities / states - sure. Is it a real, palpable "fear"? - of course not. Then again, ideas and values are truly important to me and I would trade extra income in California for a little more demonstrated freedom in Idaho.

"But, but, but, you can travel! Don't artificially limit yourself, especially not with this Fox News fear mongering." Well, it's kind of my decision to do what I want for me, right? (so long as I'm not breaking any laws etc.) And trying to "convince" me otherwise by kind of insulting me or boomer-hectoring me to "get out of my comfort zone" is not a winning strategy.

It is just a bit boggling to me

Be boggled, then. I'll stay over here.