anti_dan
18hr ago
Who is this 'we'?
Liberal Western State Dept Consensus
It is certainly a take that a country that was not a member of a regional defensive alliance, and repeatedly disagreed internally and externally about any need to join a defensive alliance, getting repeatedly invaded and suffering major losses when countries that did join the defensive alliance were not invaded is thus a proof against value of being a party of a regional defensive alliance.
A true statement if we hadn't declared them a proxy via pouring in oodles of money and having leaders going around making declarations. The Biden-NATO philosophy appears to be "Speak loudly and carry a tiny stick."
Again, I will ask who this 'we' is, because this goes beyond a lack of shared consensus.
"We" are NATO and establishment American foreign policy persons.
Just as importantly "they" are foreign belligerents. What you seem to care about is what France or Finland thinks of these entities. That is largely irrelevant. What Russia thinks is relevant. And they decided that the Biden administration was a good time to invade. They decided that Germany had crippled its own economy with Green pipedreams.
Also its important to keep an eye on one of the most important, but mercurial NATO members: Turkey. Turkey has bucked the rest of the members more than ever and was closer to exiting the alliance 2021-present than any time since it joined.
And in 2024 NATO is presumably weaker than in 2020 because the addition of Finland and Sweden, years of greatly increased military-industrial investment in their armaments capabilities, and consensus that the Russians are indeed a common threat is... is presumably worth less than the stockpiles given to Ukraine shoot NATO's primary potential adversary in the face, who... apparently grew in relative strength the more NATO munitions were shot in its face and the more of its own munitions it shot at a non-NATO country.
That capacity has proven both far too slow to materialize and far to expensive for the welfare states to maintain.
anti_dan
1d ago
To be frank, I don't think Germany (or most of NATO) knows shit. They've been getting hard carried for over half a century now and have consistently demonstrated an inability to act either in their own interest or when prodded by the US. They basically exist (along with much of NATO) as the laziest vassal states of all time. If the US withdrew and Russia announced an invasion of Poland in 2034 I doubt Germany would respond until he was past Warsaw, more likely they'd do nothing and surrender when he got to the Neisse river.
anti_dan
1d ago
I find your framing a bit odd.
Russia is not winning the war because it is taking and may keep territory in the Donbas, it is losing the war because Russia itself framed the war not as a conflict between itself and Ukraine, but between the Russian world and the west.
I mean, perhaps that was how Russia framed it at home (I trust neither set of sources on this), but it is certainly true that NATO/America has been losing the war as we defined it as well. Putin was a big bad that had to, and would be, soundly defeated by the power of freedom and money. The latter idea, has failed. We are spending many multiples of what Russia is spending to gradually lose terrain.
I suppose this deal is not so bad if you are a Brit or Canadian who cares nothing about Ukrainian deaths. But if you think NATO prestige is important, its a huge loss. Being a NATO proxy is a provably bad deal now. Even with American investment. Heck, the rest of NATO might as well be dead to the remaining civilized world. Minus America, NATO couldn't help anyone anywhere.
In so much that NATO is worse off in 2024 than 2022, it's because of reasons other than Ukraine, and in many respects NATO is considerably stronger and more threatening than before.
NATO is certainly much weaker now than 2020, but not than 2022. We cratered as a legitimate organization under Biden and it is likely impossible to get lower than Russia just invading again after abstaining for 4 years. But its certainly possible. Trump could keep doing the same things but more. And then our support would get discredited even more.
anti_dan
4d ago
There is plenty of evidence. Just not evidence that fits into the special box that people ask for which is "cannot be explained innocently for other reasons". Look at the PA senate race now. The steal is being attempted, it may or may not prevail.
The only way to find definitive proof of fraud, given our current system, is sting operations. A thing the current DOJ refuses to implement, and which they would also put you in prison for life if you attempted.
anti_dan
6d ago
I think the suspect counties still generated about the same number they always do. Slightly less probably than 2020 because that was the easiest its ever been, but sometimes 100k doesn't cut it. See, e.g. the 1980 and 1984 IL presidential elections.
anti_dan
8d ago
Francis Fukuyama publishes a letter to Musk with regards to DOGE. He tells Musk that the number of Federal employees have remained about the same for 50 years. Young people don't go into the Federal government jobs, so they're filled with older people and about a bagillion contractors.
This is a very stupid take and anyone who has worked as, with, or around the federal government will tell you so. Maybe it is true of very low GS level positions who are essentially secretaries and janitors, but it isn't true of anyone writing and promulgating regulations or enforcing them. Those positions attract very qualified people. Unfortunately, those qualified people take the jobs because they exactly want POWER and the forces surrounding them prevent them from doing anything innovative or good with said power. But those positions are filled with people who have resumes that would make the average hiring manager go "oooo".
Thus the issue of the revolving door and capture of agencies by Goldman and other such firms. But the reason is that those people are Goldman level qualified. The problem isn't quality. It is agenda and structures.
anti_dan
8d ago
Commuter rail is fairly inefficient in most cities, and in any case doesn't replace the automobile. That is a large public capital investment to not even replace a lot of privately held capital.
anti_dan
8d ago
I think you make a pretty important point: Many, if not most, drivers in cities don't even want to be there. They are there to get the paycheck to do the things they actually want to do. Thus any "solution" to too many people driving in the city will inevitably end up hollowing out that industrial/urban core of office buildings. We've seen this story before. This kills the city.
anti_dan
9d ago
I'd echo Butlerian. What are their fresh takes? Can you timestamp me (or at least give the episode) where they said replacing Biden was needed (before the debate) or that replacing him with Kamala was a bad choice (before the election)? Or something post election that undermines DNC orthodoxy? Bring back the death penalty?
anti_dan
9d ago
I once tried a listen, but they seemed far too self congratulatory for my own tastes. And, frankly, others have said they have "normie" Democrat takes, but I find I can get those in less than half the time by reading Politico. If Pod Save America was better, and less pompous, it perhaps could be the left of center version of the Republican-insider podcast Ruthless. But Ruthless is simply better. They have a sense of humor. They mix the insider information, high profile interviews, etc, with levity. I cant imagine the Pod Bros doing shots on the pod with AOC then making off color jokes about the rest of the squad.
anti_dan
9d ago
Its solved for Uber and Lyft exactly because they ban people. Public transit has the issue of banning people being basically impossible. BART-Lyft in San Francisco would quickly devolve into cars full of needles, feces, and vomit.
anti_dan
9d ago
In other words, democracy really is crumbling, but the people screeching about it do not have clean hands
Worse, they are the primary perpetrators.
anti_dan
10d ago
You would think so, but actually admissions stats indicate a strong discrimination effect at Ivies against rural kids.
anti_dan
10d ago
It continues to strike me as odd that a party that dominates the Ivy Leagues and Wall Street has had to field back to back candidates that went to Delaware and Howard grads.
anti_dan
14d ago
Maybe, but she's also just Kamala. One of the least relatable politicians of all time with a background of being the most left wing senator of the last decade.
If the Election was held August 1st, she probably would have won because no one knew anything about her. If it was held Jan 1, its possible she'd lose 45 states.
anti_dan
14d ago
Building social cohesion is not stupid. When it works your community has virtually no transaction costs.
anti_dan
15d ago
A typical ballot contains anywhere from 15 to 25 positions/questions, and anywhere from 20 to 40 candidates (not exact, totally spitballing based on previous experience). That's a lot of names. Hard to keep them all straight, yes?
Not really if I care about them.
We had 3 statewide advisory questions. Easy enough to remember. 1 State and 2 federal. A few LE-related questions. A school board choice. And about 30 judges to vote on, all that I remembered. There were also 2 local advisory questions, again easy to remember. The remainder were niche like water reclamation.
Whether I am deliberately abstaining, or not bothering is kind of subjective. My opinion is its not worth my time to educate myself about water reclamation not just because its so niche a subject, but also because I don't think any of the sources will be particularly trustworthy. If you wanted to, of course, for most of these niche questions you can vote party line and expect a pretty average result from whatever party you favor.
In any case, if you want to you can always get a sample ballot at home, fill it out and copy it at the booth.
anti_dan
16d ago
What is particularly difficult for you? I understand that perhaps your referendum are poorly (perhaps intentionally) worded, but what else is so hard? It is perfectly fine to simply not vote in races where you dont know or dont care enough to know. I know most of the judges, so I vote on judges. I care about schools and law enforcement so I take time to make my choice. I don't particularly know about water reclamation so I tend to abstain. Perfectly acceptable.
anti_dan
16d ago
Voting this year was much less chaotic than 2020 and 2022. The polling place was actually clean and organized as opposed to there being boxes scattered everywhere. And the electioneering folks stayed behind the line for once.
Very improved. Visually. Now if only they could get the mechanics down. Still a seemingly 0% signature rejection rate. Chain of custody is better, but I saw at least 2 people have to spoil ballots and the COD on those was wonky, and they just sat out for far too long.
Sweden and Finland would join because they already were effectively joined as establishment American (to be distinguished from America as a whole) proxies and joining merely formalized that. The problem remains that the whole alliance is entirely dependent on America because the rest of them are sclerotic, and the alliance, unfortunately, comprises countries that encourage the US to follow us down that path.
This is antithetical to the theory of being a NATO proxy as Ukraine is. The theory of the NATO hegemony is that American establishment types can just bully the world with their wallet and win. If you actually need AMERICA (aka our 18-40 year old men and the engineers and tradesmen supporting them) to control and win a regional skirmish like Ukraine, the theory is dead.
A fairly good analogy. Tutoring for standardized tests has little value (although it has increased recently as the tests have had their predictive qualities intentionally lowered).
The problem in the analogy is this + the "free" part. Because its clearly not free. You make regional enemies by agreeing to be a NATO proxy.
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