NunoSempere
No bio...
User ID: 1101
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Stuff I've been tracking this week so far:
The US approved $110M worth of radar & other equipment to Romania
...as Romania's top court bans a pro-Russian candidate from running in the presidential election next month
Russian arms dealer is attempting to broker a deal with the Houthis
The Japanese Prime Minister suggested a Japanese base in Guam, to the dismay of the Guam population.
Over 3000 Sunni scholars praised Khamenei over Iran’s military action on Israel. This is relevant because it shows religious unity and consensus building, which is predictive of further actions in the same direction.
Israel expands offensive against Hezbollah in south Lebanon. As seems to be the pattern in recent conflicts, initial incursions and special operations later expand, such that there is no clear line for "full-blown conflict"
Israel also kills Hassan Nasrallah's successor
Kazakhstan to build nuclear power plant
Hezbollah rockets hit Haifa
More than 130 projectiles fired into Israel on anniversary of Oct 7 attack
A dispute in Nigeria seems small scale now but in the worst case scenario could snowball into a civil war. Details are unclear but the dispute seems between the central government of Nigeria, controlled by one party, and the governorate of an oil rich region, controlled by another.
Mpox spreads in a DRC megacity, Kinshasa (formerly Leopoldville, with 17M inhabitants, largest city in Africa)
An interview with John Sullivan, former US ambassador to Russia, has this snippet on Putin's possible use of nuclear weapons:
I’m not a nuclear weapons expert, but I did spend a lot of time in Russia, observing Putin and his government and how they approach this war. And I also spoke to military experts in the US while I was Ambassador. The use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine isn’t in the interests of Russia. A tactical nuclear weapon destroys things. Putin would be destroying territory that he says is part of Russia.
The only time I thought he might use an unconventional weapon was in the spring of 2020 when you'll recall, the Russian military surrounded Mariupol, an important port. And there was a large Ukrainian military contingent in a large steel factory. They were dug in. The Russians had expended a huge amount of resources [and] personnel to try to crush the Ukrainian resistance. I thought Putin might use chemical weapons the way Assad used chemical weapons in Syria to kill those who were resisting so that he wouldn't have to spend the lives of as many Russians as it would take to ultimately dig out those Ukrainian resisters. Huge Russian casualties [and] even then, he didn’t use a nuclear weapon.
The way I think of it, Putin has to be threatened personally. And there was a moment last year with [former Wagner mercenary chief, Yevgeny] Prigozhin. Instead of it being Wagner, Russians who were committing what they characterised as a mutiny against the Minister of Defence […] imagine that’s the Ukrainian armed forces and they’re marching north toward Moscow, the capital of the Russian world. If Ukrainians were threatening that, that’s where I would not rule out the possibility that Putin would use or threaten in a much more overt, destabilising way – through a nuclear test, for example – nuclear weapons. But it would have to be a threat to his regime in the Kremlin, not battlefield losses in Ukraine or even public support starting to diminish in Russia.
A BBC documentary claims that on 8 June 1967, during the Six-Day War, America considered launching a nuclear attack against Egypt
Saudi Arabia under MBS is carrying out around 200 executions a year
The mayor of a city in southwest Mexico was beheaded
Dominican Republic starts mass deportations of Haitians and expels nearly 11,000 in a week
Rwanda introduces partial travel ban to fight Marburg spread
Doctors without borders warns that Israeli mass evacuation orders are creating catastrophic conditions
Mongolian police seize around 290 dead marmots, in effort to stop spread of bubonic plague. Although hunting marmots is illegal in Mongolia, many locals regard the rodent as a delicacy and frequently disregard the law.
China seems to have hacked the mechanism that US telecoms use to assent to US court-authorized wiretaps.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
other examples elsewhere I could list if requested
Yes, would love some other examples.
Also, how much of a fad is BSW?
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Yes, definitely.
I also recently refreshed my mind by looking at Cyprus on a map: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Cyprus/@34.4816366,29.3321508,1004982m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x14de1767ca494d55:0x324c3c807fc4146e!8m2!3d35.126413!4d33.429859!16zL20vMDFwcHE?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkyNC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D
It's just placed very conveniently. Makes sense why Turkey would invade it.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Things are gettin' spicy.
I know right
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Makes sense
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Looked into it, doesn't seem like the market has really priced recent developments. But at the same time, the US is trying to avoid an invasion. Not sure what to think.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Lebanon thread. A summary statistic is that Polymarket is at ~49% at the time of this writting that Israel will invade Lebanon. https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-enter-lebanon-before-November
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Things I'm tracking (besides Lebanon)
Geopolitics
Iraq also attacked Israel https://www.palestinechronicle.com/iraqi-resistance-drones-attack-israel-in-first-sirens-heard-in-bisan/
China seems to be producing drones for Russia https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-has-secret-war-drones-project-china-intel-sources-say-2024-09-25/
Hezbollah launched a ballistic missile to Tel Aviv. It was intercepted https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-hezbollah-says-it-launched-rocket-targeting-mossad-base-near-tel-aviv-2024-09-25/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/25/israel-hamas-war-latest-news-hezbollah-64/ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/25/hezbollah-fires-missile-at-mossad-hq-near-tel-aviv
UK sends troops to Cyprus https://www.reuters.com/world/britain-urges-nationals-leave-lebanon-2024-09-24/
Bio
India confirms mpox clade Ib case https://www.aol.co.uk/news/india-confirms-first-case-dangerous-152803698.html?guccounter=1
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Here is a dump of some stuff I'm keeping track of; happy to get thoughts on any of it. Warning that these can look pretty worrying when joined together, but stuff of similar severity happens about every week. The context for these is that I'm trying to anticipate crisis that could spiral out of hand, and I have alerts and software that processes large amounts of news and highlights some of the more worrying ones.
A United Nations statement by the UK https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-increased-military-cooperation-between-russia-iran-and-dprk-poses-an-unacceptable-threat-to-global-security-uk-statement-at-the-un-security-cou
Pagers exploded, killing many Hezbollah terrorists https://x.com/HilzFuld/status/1836051026673119719 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/17/dozens-of-hezbollah-members-wounded-after-pagers-explode-in-lebanon Here are some expert opinions: https://freebeacon.com/national-security/what-experts-make-of-israels-ingenious-hezbollah-pager-attack/
Israel has been re-establishing deterrence since it was badly undermined last Oct. 7. Like the recent assassinations in Lebanon and Iran, and Israel’s attack on some Iranian air defense sites in April, this attack is meant to remind Hezbollah of Israel’s technical sophistication and its willpower. Israel is trying to make it clear to Hezbollah and Iran that it does not fear escalation. Hezbollah will respond, but this attack will make them realize they are more vulnerable than they think
Initially 2k, now up to 4k. https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1836097128747151422 Images: https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1836061232433930309 Iranian ambassador to Lebanon also injured Here is a video in a hospital: https://x.com/WachtelDan/status/1836038754756145515
WhiteHouse meeting on mpox https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/16/readout-of-white-house-convening-on-mpox/ https://www.state.gov/digital-press-briefing-u-s-government-support-to-the-global-response-to-mpox/
Big google could hack https://www.techradar.com/pro/security/researchers-uncover-rce-exploit-in-google-cloud-millions-of-servers-at-risk https://www.tenable.com/blog/cloudimposer-executing-code-on-millions-of-google-servers-with-a-single-malicious-package
https://www.thepoultrysite.com/news/2024/09/czech-republic-reports-avian-influenza-outbreak H5N1 outbreak in the Czech republic. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czech-republic-reported-bird-flu-outbreak-farm-woah-says-2024-09-16/
Reuters on secret service https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-apparent-trump-assassination-attempt-highlights-secret-service-strains-2024-09-17/
Putin to increase size of Russian army https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-orders-russian-army-grow-by-180000-soldiers-become-15-million-strong-2024-09-16/
In a decree published on the Kremlin's website, Putin ordered the overall size of the armed forces to be increased to 2.38 million people, of which he said 1.5 million should be active servicemen.
Speculations about how they did this https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1836113607572230358
WHO flags limited mpox testing in epicenter DRC https://www.voanews.com/a/who-flags-limited-mpox-testing-in-epicenter-drc-/7784829.html suggests that actual number of cases is higher
Israel says missile from Yemen fell in central Israel https://www.yahoo.com/news/israeli-army-says-missile-yemen-052624033.html
First conviction under Hong Kong's new national security law for wearing "seditious" T-shirt https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/first-conviction-under-hong-kongs-new-national-security-law-wearing-seditious-t-2024-09-16/
Iran hanged Baloch liberation group leader https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2010/06/20/iran-executes-jundullah-founder-abdul-malik-rigi/
Follow up attacks with walkietalkies https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/lebanon-pagers-explode-hezbollah-israel-09-18-24-intl-hnk/index.html
Militants in India's Kashmir are proffessionalizing https://tribune.com.pk/story/2497064/iiojk-intensified-militancy-and-the-bewildered-indian-army
UNICEF aiming to fundraise 58M https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/unicef-global-mpox-preparedness-and-response-children-september-2024-february-2025 salhattab@unicef.org
North Korea test-fired ballistic missiles in latest military display, neighbors say https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-ballistic-missile-tensions-af75c31d24dc53b0ae0db7260458563b
Meta and Youtube ban Russia Today https://countercurrents.org/2024/09/meta-platforms-and-youtube-ban-rt-worldwide/
Gavi to buy 500,000 mpox vaccine doses from Bavarian Nordic https://www.yahoo.com/news/gavi-buy-500-000-mpox-084946643.html
More details on the exploding pagers https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/world/middleeast/israel-exploding-pagers-hezbollah.html
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Write a million words.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
The DRC had 2,662 cases over the past week, 25 of them fatal. Of cases this year, 58% occurred in children younger than 15,
From: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/mpox/mpox-escalates-africa-officials-launch-response-plan
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Ehhh...
It's in some spectrum between Ebola and smallpox. Largest than the largest Ebola outbreak, much smaller than smallpox.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Geopolitical Alpha by Marko Papic
Thanks!
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Yes, the overwhelmingly most likely case is as a test.
Monkeypox is currently mostly an STD, especially between men, right?
Nope, this was the previous strain. This one seems to be spread by close contact as well, e.g., in families, corpses, etc.
Exporting technological and social innovation is another factor I care about. E.g., the Germans experimented with tanks in the Spanish civil war, and this affected the next war; similarly, I'm thinking about how much to care about Ukranian advances, or about conflicts in Africa developing strategies that are then exported to other conflicts.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Do people have any thoughts, questions on forecasting stuff?
Some things I'd love to have some back and forths about:
- How to model the chance that North Korea will detonate a nuclear bomb by end of year?
- Chance that monkeypox will spread to the West? Distribution of expected deaths?
- How to model the spread of conflict? How to model which states matter in the world?
- What will happen with Bangladesh?
- Some states are three families in a trenchcoat. What's up with that? Particularly in the case of Pakistan: it's a nuclear state, but it also just has a lot of difficulty projecting power into rural areas...
NunoSempere
3mo ago
Very neat. But, might you give a worked example of how to use an equivalent measure to solve Allais' Paradox?
NunoSempere
3mo ago
I'm on Twitter, @NunoSempere!
I'm very unsure about what would rock your boat, here are three clusters:
- @TylerAlterman, @visakanv, @KeturahAbigail, @shagbark_hick
- @alexandrosM, @zackmdavis, @EgeErdil2, @Domahhhh
- @dick_nickson, @rsalame7926, @wagieeacc, @real_lord_miles
NunoSempere
4mo ago
Thanks! I mean, there is definitely a problem of talking too much, but talk does allow people to coordinate better as well.
NunoSempere
4mo ago
Congrats! I'm intrigued. Where are you from originally? Whats' your startup about? Do you have funding?
NunoSempere
4mo ago
it would be illegal to charge women more than men, but not the reverse
This is not clear to me. My sense is that you could construct a scheme where you can do this. For instance, by a) not using corporate structures, b) using your own money supply, which you mint and control. And worse comes to worse, c) using a different jurisdiction.
...but then you could still be charged with something like racketeering or creating some sort of conspiracy? I don't know.
NunoSempere
5mo ago
I agree that $100k is expensive compared to other things in daily life, but... even if you're earning $30k/year, three years worth of wages for a second kid seems in the range of reasonable? It seems like less than what you would spend on a kid over a lifetime, for some people it adds a huge amount of meaning to life, etc.
As an aside, it's not distributed over 20 years, which does make it much more difficult. I wonder if you're a stable couple, whether a bank would give you a loan for this, or whether IVF clinics have payment plans? Even if not, this seems like the kind of thing some people could ask friends and family to borrow to do.
Like, in general $100k is a lot, but it seems like it can correspond to the strength of desire and will to have a kid.
That said, I'm viewing this from an odd, detached angle as a pretty young guy, so I'm probably missing a lot of the complexity a couple faces when making that decision for real; sorry.
NunoSempere
5mo ago
Surrogacy would solve problems related to giving birth, but would add additional complications, and it's also expensive. Still, maybe worth thinking about.
I have no horse in this race, but: as a small case study, the Effective Altruism forum has been impoverished over the last few years by not being lenient with valuable contributors when they had a bad day.
In a few cases, I later learnt that some longstanding user had a mental health breakdown/psychotic break/bipolar something or other. To some extent this is an arbitrary category, and you can interpret going outside normality through the lens of mental health, or through the lens of "this person chose to behave inappropriately". Still, my sense is that leniency would have been a better move when people go off the rails.
In particular, the best move seems to me a combination of:
- In the short term, when a valued member is behaving uncharacteristically badly, stop them from posting
- Followup a week or a few weeks later to see how the person is doing
Two factors here are:
- There is going to be some overlap in that people with propensity for some mental health disorders might be more creative, better able to see things from weird angles, better able to make conceptual connections.
- In a longstanding online community, people grow to care about others. If a friend goes of the rails, there is the question of how to stop them from causing harm to others, but there is also the question of how to help them be ok, and the second one can just dominate sometimes.
NunoSempere
6mo ago
Here is a link to coverage of this topic on Linux Weekly News: https://lwn.net/SubscriberLink/970824/8002d283c35edf86/
Incidentally one of the few publications I pay for subscribing, because coverage is generally thoughtful and informative
Thanks! I'm basically doing this professionally now, and the infra behind that list is kind of insane.
I haven't given much thought about whether this one will turn into a civil war or remain as a political dispute; at this point I'm just flagging it to keep an eye on it.
More options
Context Copy link