NunoSempere
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User ID: 1101
NunoSempere
11d ago
Yes, which is why it's interesting that he has backpedaled on this.
NunoSempere
14d ago
I'm also curious about to what extent he changed his mind vs got pressured to make noises he doesn't agree with.
NunoSempere
15d ago
News on my mind this week:
Trump/China trade war intensifying. S&P 500 breaks. I was regretting not buying the dip. Trump/China trade war intensifying
Trump threatens Iran if talks don't go well
Iran and the US having talks on the nuclear file through Omani mediation
Satellite imagery shows US aircraft carrier in proximity to Iran
90% of Rafah's residential neighborhoods destroyed by Israel, Gaza authorities say
Trump to not prosecute crypto fraud
Treasury imposes sanctions on enablers of Iran's nuclear program
New Sanctions Targeting Iran's Nuclear Program (another gov source)
Israel would be 'leader' of strike if Iran doesn't give up nuclear weapons program, Trump warns
Israel's Ambassador Expelled from African Union Conference Amid Tensions Over Gaza Conflict
Israel's Smotrich says 'not even a grain of wheat' will enter Gaza
B-2 Stealth Bombers Deployed To Diego Garcia Have Been Striking Targets In Yemen
Houthis attack US and Israeli forces, mostly ineffectively
INDOPACOM boss warns PLA is conducting 'dress rehearsals' for Taiwan invasion
Taiwan fears that PLA drills may escalate into real attack 'with no time to respond'
US to revoke all South Sudan visas over failure to accept repatriation of citizens: Rubio
Zelensky says at least 155 Chinese citizens are fighting for Russia in Ukraine
Bangladeshi court sends 70 pro-Awami League lawyers to jail, on seemingly trumped up charges
Ethiopia on the brink of war?
Is War Between Ethiopia, Eritrea Brewing In Tigray?
US producing new nuclear weapons faster
Squirrels might be natural reservoirs for mpox
RFK Jr. endorses measles, mumps and rubella vaccine
Petraeus: A US strike on Iran wouldn’t stop at nuclear sites
US Space Command wants orbital weapons for 'space superiority'
Republika Srpska, the Serbian part of Bosnia , might try to secede again and join Serbia.
Islamic terrorists kill over 300 villagers in Burkina Faso
NunoSempere
21d ago
Mmmh, thanks.
the voluntary come from very poor regions and receive significant sign on bonuses.
Is this still true? My sense is also that they were also mislead/pressured.
NunoSempere
21d ago
I don't know, but these are good questions.
NunoSempere
22d ago
The big item this week seems like the Trump tariffs. Smoot-Hawley tariffs contributed to the start of ww2 and the deaths of tens of millions of people, says a friend. An argument in favor is that the numbers aren't meant to be taken literally not seriously, and are just there to force a negotiation. The initial formula seems pretty straightforwardly wrong (it disincentivizes e.g., Vietnam sweatshops from producing clothes for cheap). I liked this piece from Varoufakis defending what he views as Trump's plan. I'd particularly welcome steelmen and defenses of the tariffs.
Besides that, a rough list of items I've caught, particularly focused on things that could pose large risks (if you want a cleaner version of this you can check here in a couple of days):
Cholera epidemic claims over 300 lives, spread to 16 out of the country's 21 provinces.
Chinese scientific research/spy ship spotted off coast of South Australia
China Eastern Theater Command Releases Military Operation Themed Poster "Closing In"
Mali, Burkina, Niger foreign ministers due in Moscow for talks
At least 322 children killed and 609 injured in Gaza following breakdown of ceasefire: UNICEF
Hamas agrees to release five hostages in renewed ceasefire, Israel counters
Iran threatens to develop nuke weapons should U.S. attack
An adviser to Iran's supreme leader warned on Monday that if the United States or Israel were to attack Iran under the pretext of nuclear concerns, the country would be compelled to pursue the development of nuclear weapons, according to the official news agency IRNA.
Israel issues wide-ranging evacuation order for southern Gaza
UN Agency Closes Its Remaining Gaza Bakeries Amid Israel's Ongoing Aid Blockade
ARMED Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff General Romeo Brawner has directed the Northern Luzon Command (Nolcom) to prepare for the possible invasion of Taiwan.
China 'closes in' on Taiwan with large-scale military drills
China Launches Large-Scale Military Drills Around Taiwan
Chinese forces encircle Taiwan on three sides during drills - World
Military chief says Philippines 'inevitably' involved if Taiwan invaded
Google deepmind AI strategy
China large-scale drills
Some incredibly dumb tariff maths
Another Chinese military poster
https://imgmil.gmw.cn/attachement/png/site2/20250402/f44d305ea6dd2956e78044.png
Military drills response to separatism, mainland official says
All bakeries supported by World Food Program in Gaza closed due to lack of flour, fuel
Israel hails Hungary's decision to exit International Criminal Court
Israel's Netanyahu says army to establish new security corridor in Gaza
The Eastern Theater Command has organized forces from the army, navy, air force, and other branches to conduct joint exercises around Taiwan Island.
US opposes China's military exercises around Taiwan, warns against 'destabilizing behavior'. Back in the day they would have done a freedom of navigation exercise
Sudan's RSF confirms retreat from Khartoum, eyes 'stronger' return
A NYT investigations reveals that at times, the US was running the back office of the war for Ukraine. It also tells a story of envious Ukranian generals leading to incompetent counteroffensives. (summary here)
a New York Times investigation |reveals| that America was woven into the war far more intimately and broadly than previously understood. At critical moments, the partnership was the backbone of Ukrainian military operations that, by U.S. counts, have killed or wounded more than 700,000 Russian soldiers. (Ukraine has put its casualty toll at 435,000.) Side by side in Wiesbaden’s mission command center, American and Ukrainian officers planned Kyiv’s counteroffensives. A vast American intelligence-collection effort both guided big-picture battle strategy and funneled precise targeting information down to Ukrainian soldiers in the field.
One European intelligence chief recalled being taken aback to learn how deeply enmeshed his N.A.T.O. counterparts had become in Ukrainian operations. “They are part of the kill chain now,” he said.
Putin plans to conscript 160,000 more Russians for war with Ukraine
British Columbia man, Mohammad Jawaid Aziz, accused in conspiracy to obtain US technology for Pakistan's nuclear weapon's program
Construction of private bunkers in Spain rises 200% as fears of war in Europe grow
Germany stationing troops in Lithuania, and considering conscription
Two-year-old girl from Andhra Pradesh, India, has died after contracting H5N1 bird flu
Mpox activity in Africa on pace to pass 2024 total. Inconsistent with reporting from the WHO last week about cases waning
I generally don't like to report on announcements, but: OpenAI plans to release open-weight language model in coming months
NunoSempere
26d ago
TV: The Incredibles, Speed Racer
NunoSempere
1mo ago
What can I do if I want to bring back these things?
Move to a poor country like Paraguay with a significantly smaller state yet a noticeable German minority. Sadly I think the cost for you would be too high.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Thanks man, this is good context that I didn't understand.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
India imposes direct presidential rule (rather than local elected government) in rebellious state
Drone strike on Chernobyl
IRGC holds large-scale military exercises in southwest Iran
Last week I was worried about Congo affecting more african nations. Since then:
- Uganda deploys troops in Congo to help the local government against local militias
- 4K deaths, 4K wounded in Congo civil war since Jan 21st 2025
- DR Congo seeks Chad’s support to combat M23 rebels: Report
- Bukavu, the second largest city in DR Congo falls to M23
- US imposed sanctions to M23 members
And in Sudan:
- Rapid Support Forces in Sudan kill 200 civilians in three days, are considering establishing their own government.
- Sudan’s army-backed government recalled its ambassador from Kenya in protest over Kenya reportedly supporting Sudan's Rapid Support Forces.
Transmissible brain disease is spreading through Canadian deer.
US seizes weapons shipment to Yemen's Houthis from Iran; Iran denies provenance.
NK building capability for missiles to reach US
South Korea stages military drills near inter-Korean maritime border, and air drills with the United States
Zelensky warns of Russian invasion of NATO countries.
US/Russia holding talks without EU or Ukraine
Stray Russian drones hit Moldova and Romania
Former Bangladeshi PM Hasina accusses Yunus of deploying terrorists, pledges to return and avenge police officers. This seems unlikely, as she doesn't control the state apparatus. However, if she does return, it would lead to wider turmoil in the region.
Southern California has a 36% chance of a M7.5 or greater earthquake in the next 30 years," Elizabeth Cochran with the USGS Earthquake Science Center says. This would wreak havoc upon the state's most populated cities, causing roughly 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, and $200 billion in damage.
How does this:
The President and the Attorney General, subject to the President’s supervision and control, shall provide authoritative interpretations of law for the executive branch. The President and the Attorney General’s opinions on questions of law are controlling on all employees in the conduct of their official duties. No employee of the executive branch acting in their official capacity may advance an interpretation of the law as the position of the United States that contravenes the President or the Attorney General’s opinion on a matter of law, including but not limited to the issuance of regulations, guidance, and positions advanced in litigation, unless authorized to do so by the President or in writing by the Attorney General.
affect injunctions and rulings? In a plain reading,
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if the Trump administration does something,
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and a judge disagrees and issues an injuction and then a ruling,
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the Trump administration can still disagree with that
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Until it goes up to an appelate court, and then to the Supreme Court.
At which step does the president/AG's interpretation cease to be binding?.
Washington post article on the topic: https://archive.is/XIMum
Geologists warn of an "overdue" very large earthquake for Istambul, and warn that Turkey doesn't have the infrastructure to mitigate it, and millions could die.. Die Erdbebenwarte Kandilli gibt die Wahrscheinlichkeit für ein Beben mit einer Stärke über 7 bis zum Jahr 2030 mit 60 Prozent an.
H5N1 also in India. They were doing less testing so they've caught it later. Or it could be that it only reached them now (unlikely). Authorities in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh have issued an alert and a series of containment measures following the outbreak of bird flu (Avian Influenza H5N1), officials said Thursday.. The outbreak has been reported in Eluru, West Godavari, East Godavari, Krishna and NTR districts of the state, where over half a million poultry birds had died over the last three days
CDC conducted a small survey of 150 bovine veterinary practitioners; 3 had H5N1 antibodies. Also wow is this very little testing still.
Nevada and Ohio report first human cases of bird flu; nominal egg prices hit record high – The Moderate Voice
41 Former Bangladesh Police Officials Arrested Over Crackdown On Hasina Ouster Protests
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Multiple militaries intervened in the Spanish civil war yet it didn't spread into a regional war (unless one counts WW2 lol). In that stronger sense Congo hasn't spread that much throughout the region?
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Edited to clarify that it's a direct quote. Agree it's somewhat overhyped.
Life got in the way for the last few weeks, so I just posted the final versions of the lists I'd been sharing here on monday here
This week I'm looking at:
Trump admin to challenge Humphrey's executor
If US makes nuclear deal with Iran, Israel will not bomb it, Trump says
Iran launches IRF6 production line at Isfahan nuclear facility
Iran's military urges leader to lift fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons
Israel allegedly used toxic gas to suffocate Palestinian fighters, captives in Gaza tunnels.
Israeli PM says he will make sure Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons
UN suspends its humanitarian work in Houthi rebels' stronghold in Yemen after more staff detentions
North Korea warns of retaliation after US nuclear submarine docks in Busan. North Korea has raised concerns over the docking of the USS Alexandria, a US Navy fast-attack nuclear submarine, in South Korea's Busan port, calling it a threat to its national security. The North Korean Ministry of Defence warned that their military is prepared to take necessary actions in response to what it describes as the US's aggressive military presence in the region, expressing alarm at the heightened tensions and potential for military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula.
Kim Jong Un slams US-South Korea-Japan partnership and vows to boost nuclear program. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has expressed that the growing security partnership between the United States, South Korea, and Japan represents a significant threat to North Korea. He reaffirmed his commitment to enhancing the country's nuclear weapons program in response to perceived military imbalances caused by this trilateral collaboration. Kim's comments, made during a speech marking the founding anniversary of the Korean People's Army, suggest that he is unlikely to engage in renewed diplomacy with the U.S. under President Trump, given the current state of stalled talks and North Korea's focus on weapon modernization.. cable belonging to Russian Rostelecom broke in the Baltic Sea
Could a rebellion in eastern Congo widen into a regional war?
Egypt to host emergency Arab summit on Palestinian displacement
First whooping cought death in the Washington since 2011
15K to 25K grebes killed by bird flu within Great Salt Lake, Utah officials say
Small model better than o1-preview?
OpenAI roadmap
The Islamic State has regrouped in Somalia — and has global ambitions.
The Somali branch has become the Islamic State’s new operational and financial hub, according to U.S. Africa Command (Africom), and local officials estimate there are as many as 1,000 militants under its command. Large numbers of foreign fighters have flowed into Somalia, establishing a formidable force that now threatens Western targets. The group has also become a key source of funding for other Islamic State affiliates around the world, which have killed thousands of people, including U.S. soldiers, according to U.N. investigators.
UN report finds brutal, systematic repression of protests in fallen Bangladesh regime
Potential spikes in AIDS-related deaths and a resurgence of untreated infections if access to antiviral drugs continues to be frozen by the US
China views the Philippines seeking to organize joint patrols with the US as a provocative move. In response, they conducted their own patrols (cn). Southern Theater Command: The People's Liberation Army Southern Theater Command conducts routine patrols in the South China Sea area. (cn)
On February 12, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command carried out routine patrols in the South China Sea, according to Air Force Senior Colonel Tian Junli. The Philippines has been attempting to engage external countries in 'joint patrols', which is viewed as a military provocation that obscures its illegal activities regarding China's maritime rights. China asserts its historical and legal claims over these territories, emphasizing that its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights are undisputed and must be respected. The Southern Theater Command remains on high alert to ensure the defense of national interests and to counter any disruptive military efforts in the region.
(I'm now parsing Chinese military news to check for precursors of a Taiwanese invasion)
Sudan confirms agreement on Russian naval base.
Trump and Putin to begin talks on ending Ukraine war
China is building four more type 093 nuclear attack submarines
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Have you considered starting your own firm targetted? Money to be made with niches like digital nomads, I think. More generally, what do you want from life? If you have a family, can you derive meaning from supporting it?
NunoSempere
2mo ago
No "guerrilla" or "terrorist" insurgency has ever won a civil war against a domestic enemy.
ISIS? Syria?
NunoSempere
2mo ago
I appreciated this post, thanks for writting it
NunoSempere
3mo ago
Friedrich März
Suspicious that you write Merz with an Umlaut.
NunoSempere
3mo ago
It's pretty much like this every week (or here for the final version). I think reading just one week is unduly alarming, because it doesn't make apparent that there always bad things happening in the world.
NunoSempere
3mo ago
Thanks! Yeah, I may have overestimated the significance, thanks for the correction.
NunoSempere
3mo ago
Here are some items I'm looking at this week; discussion & pushback welcome.
Microsoft reveals some details of how an unknown group bypassed their Azure AI API guardrails and created a hacking as a service scheme.
Navy Lookout looks at Russia v. NATO confrontation in the Baltic over the last few months
Mozambique opposition asks help from EU and UN in response to repression by the ruling president
One person dies from Ebola in Sierra Leone.
Finnland seems to have a bit more specific evidence on the internet and power cable cuts, reducing the degree of plausible deniability that Russia and China can claim they have.
Japan panel of experts says probability of "megaquake" in the next 30 years has risen to 80%
"Bomb Iran? Await a Trump Nuclear Deal? Topple the Regime? Israel Weighs Its Options", considers the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.
Iran reinforces their Natanz nuclear facility.
Dubai sends 68 tonnes of urgent medical supplies to Gaza
Iran is also looking to Russia to bolster its defense, and are now set to sign a 'comprehensive strategic partnership' treaty.
Iran also sent a surveillance ship out to sea, but is also holding nuclear talks with Europeans
Israel tried to embed explosivies within centrifuge components bought by Iran, but got caught.
Saudi Arabia announces plans to enrich and sell uranium
Swedish dockworkers vote to block military shipments to and from Israel
Tehran says 5,000 people working to expand Bushehr nuclear plant
China is developing methods to target Starlink satellites
Chinese Wuhan bat virus researcher continues with gain of function research
US adds Chinese company which develops open source LLMs to the entities list, "because these entities advance the People's Republic of China's military modernization through the development and integration of advanced artificial intelligence research". via @bdsqlsz
From the past: China could attack the US with EMPs.
Ukraine and Russia both had large attack waves.
Trump to meet Putin 'very quickly' after taking office
"You can't put a ship over every nautical mile of pipeline or cable -- it's an impossible task," says NATO commander. "There are approximately 50,000 big ships out there worldwide and they can drop anchors and drag them over infrastructure."
Sudan might fracture
In 2024, 444 terrorist attacks against security forces killed 685 personnel in Pakistan.
H5 Bird Flu confirmed in three additional domestic cats in Los Angeles
CDC telling laboratories to test for H5N1 specifically faster
Sierra Leone declares public health emergency over mpox after two new cases
WHO starts $1.5 billion funding appeal
Bird Flu mutations found in Texas
Study finds certain H5N1 strains in cattle linked to milder human illness
TTP abducts 18 Pakistani nuclear engineers, possibly to mask shipments of uranium to Iran.
NunoSempere
3mo ago
Thanks!
It's infuriating that there seems to be no defense/response to this
I know right. The antecedents are that Russia tried a similar thing, cutting internet and power cables in the Baltics, and it didn't result in much of a response from NATO. So now China has tried the same thing in Taiwan, and it isn't getting much of a response, so hostilities keep increasing.
With Russia I think the West has come to believe that there are some bright lines that separate the conflict from a full NATO/Russia confrontation, whereas Russia doesn't believe that, and keeps finding new areas of semi covert sabotage. The danger is that by blurring declarations of war into gradients, and having ineffective deterrence, low commitments, you just waltz into continued escalation.
The situation with China isn't that far along, and in particular, trade continues. But it's trending in a similar direction. And cutting internet cables just seems so hostile to me.
NunoSempere
3mo ago
Some stuff I'm looking at this week. The Facebook censorship policy change seems important. The Russia/EU Suwałki gap items are also pretty interesting.
Some digital brain simulations is able to predict fMRI data.
US sanctions Chinese company for cyberattacks
110K Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces to stage military exercise
Time to get rid of TTP once and for all, says Pakistani PM
There was aurge in armed activities by Baloch 'pro-independence' groups in 2024
Climate extremes significantly disrupted global water cycle in 2024, says the Global Water Monitor Report
"In the arena of Western politics where they’d cut their teeth, the worst imaginable outcome was that a poorly phrased missive might rile an EU country’s prime minister or upset an industry lobby group. Now, they’d inserted themselves into a bitter ethnic dispute where the worst thing that could happen was somebody burning down your house and cutting your head off."; Politico on Europe and Nagorno-Karabach
NATO to deploy nearly a dozen ships to the Baltic Sea to protect underwater infrastructure
Tibet earthquake kills more than 120 people
Jerusalem Post calling for a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear program
Hamas approves Israeli list of captives to be freed as part of Gaza ceasefire deal
Israeli soldier flees Brazil amid Gaza war crimes investigation
Japanese crime leader pleads guilty to conspiring to sell nuclear materials to Iran
Deepsea internet cable connecting Taiwan to the rest of the world cut off by China.
Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) outbreak in China; reporting somewhat sensationalistic
Russia intends to share advanced space tech with North Korea, says Blinken
Blinken reveals that the US began supplying weapons to Ukraine before the Russian invasion
Russian TV personalities, including a Duma member, talk about why Russia is cutting energy cables on national TV. "[The point] is to create problems for them, and it is creating problems", "We need the Suwałki Gap from Kaliningrad to Leningrad", "So let's go ahead and invade Estonia, right? Why just Estonia? Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania". It's pretty good TV.
Lithuania to protect said Suwalki Gap more intensely, ahead of planned disconnection of Baltic countries from Soviet-era grid shared with Russia and Belarus.
Russia says Ukraine Fired US-made missiles at Belgorod region
Techcrunch covers Chinese cyberattack capabilities. "The U.S. says Chinese government-backed hackers have — in some cases for years — been burrowing deep into the networks of U.S. critical infrastructure, including water, energy, and transportation providers. The goal, officials say, is to lay the groundwork for potentially destructive cyberattacks in the event of a future conflict between China and the United States, such as over a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan"
344K Michigan turkeys killed after detecting bird flu outbreaks
First H5 bird flu death reported in US
Parting Biden administration to remove regulations to facilitate civil nuclear cooperation with India
State Department accuses Sudan's Rapid Support Forces of committing genocide
Maoist rebels in India kill nine
North Korea does further intermediate-range missile tests
Indonesia joins BRICS
Paraguay and Venezuela suspend relations after Paraguay recognizes Edmundo González as the president
Masked men kidnap son-in-law of Edmundo González
US to maybe purchase Greenland??
International flights resume from Damascus
India confirms first case of HMPV
Zuckerberg announces end to censorship in Facebook and Instagram, asks US to pressure Europeans and others for more free speech.
NunoSempere
3mo ago
Good point, thanks
NunoSempere
3mo ago
Added, thanks
Cleaned up version of this comment into a brief here: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-152025
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