NunoSempere
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User ID: 1101
NunoSempere
3d ago
Use git?
NunoSempere
3d ago
The Economist gives a higher yet still small number as a proportion of total population.
NunoSempere
5d ago
Letter from Biden to the Speaker of the House on US deployments is interesting. I appreciate how it subverts various mechanisms for Congressional oversight.
From doctor to brutal dictator: the rise and fall of Syria's Bashar al Assad
An article in Haaretz openly talks about Israel's nuclear program, noting a shift from Israel's official stance of "strategic ambiguity"
China warships near Taiwan nearly double in 24 hours, ahead of possible wargames. China also expressed dissatisfaction with visits to Hawaii and Guam from Taiwan's president
Syria rebels name transitional prime minister, Mohammed al-Bashir. He was the previous prime minister of the statelet in the region controlled by HTS.
NK saber rattling. My sense is they might test a nuclear weapon in the next few months (15% by April?)
US transition of power soon
Belarus president confirms that nuclear weapons are stationed in Belarus, reports Russia Today.
Putin claims that its intermediate-range missile system, the Oreshnik minimizes the need of using nuclear weapons.
Ukraine war: US gives $20bn to Kyiv funded by seized Russian assets. It's deposited to a World Bank fund, where it nominally can't be spent to buy military assets (though it of course funges with civilian spending).
Zelensky says that Ukraine has lost 43K soldiers since the start of the war, with an additional 370K wounded, and that losses oon the Russian side are around 200K, with an additional ~500K injured. With a population of 37.9M for Ukraine, that corresponds to 0.11% dead, 1% wounded. Wikipedia reports similar numbers. The ratio of repoprted Ukranian to Russian losses is also very steep. The Economist instead estimates 60K to 100K deaths for Ukraine. But these are just... not that high? Very, very far from "total war".
Genetic analysis of H5N1 in kid in California: "the virus gene segments sequenced most closely resemble those segments from recent B3.13 viruses detected in California in humans, dairy cattle and poultry. This analysis supports the conclusion that the overall risk to the general public associated with the ongoing HPAI A(H5N1) outbreak in U.S. dairy cattle and poultry has not changed and remains low at this time."
UK considering ring-vaccination campaign to tackle new mpox outbreak if more cases emerge
Drone strikes UN vehicle on way to inspect Ukrainian nuclear plant
Israel arrested 30 people to whom Iran was paying relatively small amounts of money for spying and sabotage tasks
Assad fell, some good coverage here. Israel also took the opportunity to get a buffer zone in Syria.
Various European countries are stopping or revering asylum claims from Syrians
Arrakan Army now controls the Myanmar/Bangladesh border.
The Russian Federal Security Service arrests a German-Russian man for allegedly planning to sabotage a rail line in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, on behalf of the Security Service of Ukraine.
Saudi Arabia to host 2034 world cup
NunoSempere
5d ago
Also changed the font to something which might be a bit better
NunoSempere
9d ago
Thanks, typos fixed
NunoSempere
12d ago
Meanwhile I'm still running my little intelligence agency, and we keep putting out weekly minutes (of which stuff like the above is my draft for Thursday). Today I was very frustrated because someone wants to give us a grant but their ops is fucked up and so we might have to pay $5k in overhead basically just because. On the plus side, my cofounder has been doing very fast wargames for the items in this list and these have generally been very enlightening, because they make it much easier to think through what the "obvious steps" are in catastrophes like that in a way that more abstract thinking doesn't do it for me.
Yesterday I posted a blogpost on the "grain of truth problem", where you can't really update well if you observe something which you previously thought had probability ~0—many of the big picture frameworks people use to make sense of AI have fail and imho will continue to fail because they are too rigid. I put it on twitter, but it failed to reach anybody with real power.
/end of rant.
NunoSempere
12d ago
Pretty quiet week for me, but then again I'm focused on events that could escalate. The South Korea martial law declaration was poorly executed (compare with the 1981 Spanish coup), and overall I thought it wasn't a big deal. Maybe I'm just desensitized. As the Lebanon front closes a new front emerged in Syria, which seems like a bigger deal (because it's a bigger country), but nothing decisive has happened there yet.
Russia moved some assets outside Syria, perhaps suggesting that it will not reinforce Assad.
United Healthcare CEO assassinated
Meta plans to build $10B spanning undersea internet cable for its exclusive use.
Hezbollah fires the first missiles since ceasefire
Estonia launches large-scale NATO exercises near border with Russia, together with France, the United Kingdom, the United States and Latvia. I like Estonia and consider them competent.
Catholic bishop attacked and robbed in Sudan, by the RSF. Meanwhile the pope calls for peace
Marburg virus has been spreading a bit. I previously was vaguely paying attention to it, but now it's come up often enough that I'm more actively tracking it.
UK orders 5M doses of H5 vaccine
China state news point out how the US has repeatedly promised and failed to provide security to Africa.
Pakistan army kills some jihadist insurgents
The South Korea military law declaration seems like a nothingburger.
Flu-like disease kills 143 in Congo.
French prime minister resigns. Unclear if Macron (President) will hang on to power.
Meanwhile, Senegal and Chad asked France troops to leave. France presence in Africa has declined a lot over the last few years.
China banned exports of various raw materials to the US.
NunoSempere
12d ago
My answer here is that there is no meaningful "we", and your level of analysis is decoupled from actions you can personally take, because the US natsec blob gains meaning from opposition to China and is thus pretty set on that.
Coupling it with actions would be much more interesting, e.g., "why don't we form a voting block that attempts to influence either mainstream party into doing so?", "why don't we see if we can get 100 people to call their US representatives about [whatever]?", "why don't I personally see how I can meaningfully trade with China, e.g., by manufacturing stuff there".
NunoSempere
12d ago
- air purifier / air humidifier
- dust-mite-proof pillow & covers
- various sleep apnea products (price in M$)
My recommendation would still be to go to a doctor.
NunoSempere
13d ago
You could just have nasal polyps, i.e., growths in your nose. A doctor can burn them.
NunoSempere
19d ago
What's so special about facebook is that it was the first to offer this at scale in that country, in a way accessible to wide swathes of the population.
NunoSempere
19d ago
This isn't really news
Sure. It was news to me though.
NunoSempere
19d ago
Some items I'm tracking this week:
Austria didn't pay for Russian gas, as a remedy for an arbitration award. This ends Austria's 50 year dependence on Russian gas, mid-winter.
Anti-NATO nationalist won the first round of Romanian presidential election. Calin Georgescu, who has praised Putin's regime and blamed the military-industrial complex for the war in Ukraine, secured over 22.9% of the vote, surpassing pro-western candidates Lasconi and Ciolacu.
Israel <> Hezbollah ceasefire
As a case study for negative impacts of technology, apparently the introduction of Facebook groups allowed larger-scale cooperation in Myanmar to a much larger extant than before, and contributed/enabled/made possible the Rohinya genocide.
Aljazeera looked at whether aid workers are being tagetted, given that relatively many (281 in 2024) were killed this year, articularly in Gaza. This could be important, because killing aid workers potentially makes catastrophes much worse.
Further protests in Pakistan about releasing Imran Khan
His wives kept dying mysteriously. His secret poison: Insulin
William Dale Archerd was a charming sociopath who married frequently, drank highballs, and despised 9-to-5 employment. He was a natural salesman who married seven women from 1930 to 1965, sometimes not bothering to divorce the previous one. Archerd was finally arrested in 1967 for a series of murders carried out using insulin injections to mimic fatal illnesses.
Israel and Lebanon instituted a ceasefire, which was then broken. However, Lebanese are returning to their abandoned homes
Per Biden's announcement of the ceasefire, it is between the governments of Lebanon and Israel, and their respective security forces. It doesn't seem to bind Hezbollah?. Over the next 60 days, the Lebanese Army and the State Security Forces will deploy and take control of their own territory once again. Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon will not be allowed to be rebuilt.
Food conditions continue to worsen in Gaza, in part because Israel has been blocking aid
The US and Japan are High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) on Japan's Nansei islands to defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion, as reported by Voice of America.
Trump team weighs direct talks with Kim Jong Un. Meanwhile, in his final meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier this month in Peru, Biden asked for Beijing to use its leverage to reel in North Korea.
Documents declassified by the US reveal a list of assassination targets authorized/ordered by Putin
North Korea reveals uranium enrichment facility for the first time. DHL cargo plane crashed just outside the Vilnius airport, killing the Spanish pilot and injuring the three other crew members. Lithuania cannot rule out terrorism.
If Trump introduces tariffs against other nations, inflation in the US would go up, and other countries would likely retaliate.
Bird flu found in sample of California raw unpasteurized milk sold to the public. group of access leaked api access keys to OpenAI's Sora model in protest to considering themselves "free PR"
NunoSempere
24d ago
I don't necessarily disagree, but to me the most salient fact is that there is not a clearly dominant gang that can keep the peace.
NunoSempere
26d ago
Stuff I'm tracking this week
Top items:
- Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea cut, Germany and Finland fear, sabotage suspected
- Ukraine fired UK, US missiles into Russia. Russia retaliated by sending an ICBM-lite missile into Ukraine
- Sweden sent a brochure to its citizens "in case of crisis or war". Seems worth reading
- The Adani empire is stumbling a bit.
T-Mobile hacked as part of a broader Chinese effort.
Nearly 100 trucks carrying food for Palestinians were looted in Gaza. Hamas security forces retaliated by killing over 20 gang members involved in the looting. Israel cited distribution challenges as the main obstacle in aiding Gaza.
China-Pakistan to conduct joint military/anti-terrorist exercise
Maybe worth purchasing big ticket items soon, before Trump tariffs hit.
DeepSeek will release large models
Russia / Ukraine heating up a bit.
volcano erupted in Indonesia.
US Secret Service using data from phones to locate users, without a warrant
Talks between Hezbollah, Lebanon and Israel are ongoing, with talks being between Israel and Lebanon, and Israel wanting to preserve its ability to attack Hezbollah if needed.
Biden authorizes Ukraine to use US-supplied longer range missiles for deeper strikes inside Russia
Deutsche Welle reports that a chance in Russia's nuclear doctrine preceeded the US allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons.
300 Colombian mercenaries killed in Ukraine, out of 500 that went there
Russia has begun production of nuclear shelters
Russia Today, a Russian state-affiliated media outlet summarizes the key changes in Russia's new nuclear policy
CNN looks at some satellite images of the infrastructure damage in Ukraine
China and Russia are acting together in the Artic
Special US-Russia Hotline To Defuse Crises Not In Use, Says Kremlin
Zelensky gave an interview to Fox News, in which he recognizes that Ukraine probably wouldn't be able to survive without US support.
Greek Intelligence declassifies reports on 1974 coup and Turkish invasion
Pakistan starts a larger operation against Balochistan terrorists
US arms stockpiles strained by Ukraine, Israel support, says the head of US Indo-Pacific Command.
First case of clade I mpox diagnosed in the US
Trump seemed to confirm on Truth Social that he'd declare a national emergency and use military assets to institute a mass deportation program
WHO added another mpox vaccine to their emergency listing. This allows countries & procurement processes to coordinate a bit better around acquiring it.
EU isn't cutting antibiotic use fast enough to slow antibiotic resistance, the EU CDC says
H5N1 bird flu infects six more humans in California, Oregon
Here is an overview of nuclear events
Here are a few bullet points on the "Talibanization of Bangladesh"
NunoSempere
28d ago
Is your startup a solution to my problem?
No. Rather, some internal tooling I am not willing to release is. I am not willing to release it because it would take too much effort, and it might not end up meeting your needs (it uses the terminal extensively). However, from the description you could get an AI tool (maybe this) to try to replicate it.
NunoSempere
29d ago
Also, I've sometimes entered Data secrets lox, but bumped out pretty quickly; what is an example of a discussion you've found valuable there, if that's not too much trouble?
NunoSempere
29d ago
A straightforward answer could be to write a parser for each source of information that you are interested in, and then a frontend to consume that information. I am partially doing this (and it provides some of the magic sauce for my startup), though I also use email and rss. And Twitter; the serendipity factor for the algorithm is still too high to leave it be.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
What says The Motte?
This makes a lot of sense to me, particularly on the Ukraine side. On the Russian side, I'm not so sure, and in particularly I'm not so sure that both sides will share an understanding of what is a reasonable compromise.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Lol, this makes sense :)
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Elon Musk shared a perspective from Jeffrey Sachs, outlined in more detail here or here, about how Russia was provoked by NATO expansion into invading Ukraine, in the same way that the US was provoked by Soviet cooperation with Cuba. This matters because Musk has become an important Trump advisor.
African countries face cybersecurity vulnerabilities due to foreign control over critical technological infrastructure, with notable cases of Chinese cyber espionage in African Union headquarters and Kenyan government ministries. Chinese and U.S. companies dominate the application and operating system layers.
Theravada Budhist rebel militias control most of a state (province) in Myanmar. Seems like it could tickle some people here.
Otherwise, I'm thinking about how states just seem like a bad abstraction. Alliance blocks, ideologies, religions, dynasties seem like somewhat better building blocks. In particular, states seem like an easy abstraction, but recently they have mislead me when... a) thinking about the Iran/Hamas/Hezbollah/Houthis: it seems much easier to think about them in terms of religion than in terms of their geographic boundaries; b) there are a few governments that are pretty weak, and they are so just because the west recognizes and supports them. Yemen, the former government of Afghanistan come to mind, c) borders are important, but not that important. There is free travel between Paraguay/Argentina/Brazil, between the European Union, between the US and Canada, between Russia and Belarus, etc., d) at the lower level, a few governments are just a few families in a trench coat (Saudi Arabia, El Salvador, etc.).
Longer list of items below. Some may be wrong.
Protest in Hyderabad against Punjab's construction of more canals on the Indus river.
Canada forces are training for deployment in Latvia—an a potential
Potential prophylactic against Ricin, in case somebody is wanting to recreate a Pricess Bride scene irl.
A paper in nature warns about the danger of a repeat of the 1815 Mount Tambora eruption
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warned of the potential spillover effects of the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, where Iran-backed groups are battling Israel. Araghchi stated that if the conflict expands, it could result in insecurity and instability spreading to other regions beyond the Middle East. I'm particularly worried about that scenario.
Biden administration "under pressure" to respond to Iran's plot to kill Trump, reports Fox News.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called for imposing a weapons embargo on Israel and severing trade relations with the country
Far-right Israeli minister calls for annexation of West Bank
IDF says it destroyed most of Hezbollah's manufacturing, storage sites
Iran is building 'defensive tunnels' in Tehran metro network to save people from Israeli air strikes
Iran might have developed chemical weapons. These would have been tactical, rather than wide-area.. British tabloid claims that Liz Truss thought that there was a 50% that Putin would use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine in the eve of her administration
The Famine Early Warning System warns that if food supplies remain blocked, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) will most likely occur in North Gaza
An Iranian MP says Iran should move forward with a nuclear test
China is building nuclear reactor to power new aircraft carrier
France sent a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to Japan
North Korea ratifies mutual defence treaty with Russia. The treaty commits both countries to providing immediate military assistance to each other using “all means” necessary if either faces “aggression”.
NATO military chief says troops would be on ground if not for Russian nukes
US flights to Haiti banned after 3 airplanes shot. government information campaign in Norway is urging citizens to prepare for emergencies, with a checklist of supplies including water, food, candles, iodine, a radio, and cash.
Doctors Without Borders ambulance in Haiti ambushed, patients executed by police officers and vigilantes.
Colombia has declared a state of disaster following days of torrential flooding impacting tens of thousands of families.
European Forum for Disaster Risk Reduction
Canada records its first human bird flu case
Global talks to reach an agreement on better fighting pandemics will continue into next year
The largest-yet multilingual open pretraining dataset was released.
China arms itself for potential trade war with Donald Trump. "You think you’ve priced-in geopolitical risk and US-China trade warfare, but you haven’t, because China hasn’t seriously retaliated yet"
Ukraine could build a crude nuclear bomb within months, similar to the Fat Man bomb dropped in Nagasaki, from spent plutonium
An elephant seal colony lost 95%+ of its pups because of H5N1
An Australian site makes the point that misinformation laws prevent converging to the truth when the official version is wrong, as it was in the early days of covid when the mechanism for transmission was thought to be droplets, rather than the virus being more generally airborne.
ChinaTalk reports on the state of model testing in China
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Looking into this a bit more, using a stack-based fermi estimation tool I like
600K 700K # tonnes of rice
=> 600.00K 700.00K
* 1K # kg in a tone
=> 600.00M 700.00M
* 1.2K 1.4K # calories per kg of rice
=> 753.25B 936.74B
/ 1.9K 2.5K # daily caloric intake
=> 323.46M 459.24M
/ 25M 28M # population of NK
=> 12.12 17.51
/ 365 # years of food this buys
=> 0.033 0.048
/ 1% # as a percentage
=> 3.32 4.80
exit
So Russia is giving 3-5% of North Korea's caloric intake, and NK previously was short maybe 5-10%. Somewhat wild.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Makes much more sense, still kinda blows my mind.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
maybe kilotonnes
I keep coming back to this [folk theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Folk_theorem_(game_theory), which points to a fucked up equilibrium where many/most Aztecs don't believe in human sacrifice, but believe they will be punished by others if they don't do it or punish others.
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