ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
No bio...
User ID: 626
The Germans used to have a "crime by nationality" chapter in their annual crime report, where all the stereotypically criminal minorities turn out to be actually criminal. Though the last in year for which the full report seems to be available is 2020.
I think immigration dynamics tend to be pretty different in Europe vs the US, for whatever reason.
I think this was true in the past moreso than it is now, though obviously you have different nationalities coming over, which might have it's own impact.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Would you accept a European source, or would you say it's irrelevant to the conversation you're having in America?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
The world turning into the "How Not To Be Seen" skit from Monty Python was not on my 2024 Bingo Card...
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Waiters. Grocery store security.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
I suppose you can claim that technically it's not a lie (knowingly putting forward a false statement), but the whole rub is that a lot of people (myself included) see "crafting narratives" as dishonest.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
The best part about it is that everybody here seems to agree with it, and we're just fighting over which type of lying is better/worse.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
I was wrong, maybe I shouldn’t make such quick assumptions
...Though they are fun (which is why this probably won't get me to stop)!
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
This serves as evidence that if the Haitians do eat an occasional pet, it’s pretty uncommon.
This sounds like the slow pace from "this doesn't happen" to "it doesn't matter of it does" on the glorious way to "it's a good thing that it does". If it really doesn't matter because it's so rare, people could stop freaking out over Trump/Vance dropping these claims. Would it kill progressives to say "Bro, they literally got off the plane after dodging cannibal gangs. Give them some time to adapt"? Oh yeah, we can't acknowledge any friction coming from immigration, because one day people might start asking if the trade-off is worth it.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
because this caused confusion on here in the past, I am using efficiency to refer specifically to calories in vs calories out
Now, if only we could get you to stick to that definition of efficiency when talking about nuclear power.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
Dick Cheney's daughter was already a lesbian
This is ancient history, but I seem to recall her being thrown under the bus by her father and sister. This doesn't make it "less surprising" for me, the progressive reverence for the Cheney family is whiplash inducing.
Data literacy is your own responsibility
Yeah, but I'm talking about availability and legibility, not literacy. If you don't think people who already worked on the data should pass on their work on the former two, there's no point in publishing any numbers in the paper at all. Just say "Immigrants commit less crime. Don't believe me? Check for yourself, chud!".
it’s often common to publish the code you used to run your analysis in the supplemental material section.
a) How much you want to bet they didn't do it in this case?
b) The code on it's own is not particularly useful without the input data, and just constitutes a "fuck you citation". This is the entire thing I've been driving at all along
Furthermore, you’re implying that recent immigration is obviously related to higher crime
I'm doing no such thing. I'm pointing out how trivial it is to manipulate data, even if the actual truth is the opposite of what the data is showing.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
That just means their stories are more low-brow, not that they're less trustworthy, no?
The ever-trustworthy Daily Mail says
I've been hearing these kind of jabs at the Daily Mail for years, but have they actually done something that would put them below CNN, NYT, MSNBC, CBC, etc.?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
Obviously a bombing in a market causes the market to suffer the harmful effects? What are you even denying at this point?
That these particular bombs were a threat to anyone in the market, other than their intended targets.
If you switch back to Godot or Unity, I might be able to chime in with something constructive. Unreal is the one engine I didn't touch at all over the years. A political userbase is annoying, but Godot is on the MIT license, it's not like they can yoink it away from you (I don't remember the details of the Unity drama, but that seems to be an advantage over it, at least).
Like I expected, I was way too busy with life to get anything done last week.
@Southkraut, hopefully your project is fairing better?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
Studies typically don’t publish the raw data but often work from public datasets. This type of data wouldn’t be something that the study authors collected, but data that the state of Texas in this case collected.
I doubt that it’s not public.
Sorry, I think I initially misunderstood you. Yeah, crime data is likely to be available to the public, but there's the "in an easily parsable format" part of my initial statement. Generally, I think you should make it as easy as possible for others to double-check your work, and minimize "fuck you citations".
Data would be what we use to see if that intuition is correct or not.
What do you do when the only data you have is from a time when a more strict and selective immigration process was applied, or refers to to completely different groups, or ignores immigration background and just lumps everyone into "US born"? By the time you get proper data, it's too late, the immigration is fait accompli.
But posting one news article that supposedly defines an entire class of millions of people, then defending that by saying “at least I posted one example”, is just obviously a poor way to make any given point.
I agree with that, I just don't think "data" is a particularly good argument either.
I mean, we’ve got to reason about the world somehow.
Yes, and doing it right will always include a certain amount of Witchcraft, because any systemic approach that gains widespread adoption will be gamed by people vying for power. Even Rationalists flirt with that idea when they talk about Goodhart's Law, though they never take it to it's obvious conclusion.
You can do so using logical errors if you want, it sure is comfy.
If you want to use Rationalist lingo, I'm just saying Rationalism is full of logical errors, often ones that are more likely to lead you astray than primitive grug-brained heuristics. It's the IQ Bell Curve Meme come to life.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
I haven’t seen that the data isn’t available. I doubt that the data underlying the study I linked isn’t public. You should be able to access it. You might look into this. I honestly don’t care to.
It is my experience that studies in general do not publish raw data at all, only aggregated end-results that make the point that the authors want to make. You can sometimes ask the authors to give you the raw data, but they tend to ignore internet randos doing it, and it's not unheard of for them to dismiss even other academics when they get a whiff that they might want to see the data to refute the original study.
Hey, one news article about a psycho is nowhere near enough to categorize an entire class of people as violent.
Is the crime rate of the country they're coming from enough to consider it plausible that they're more violent?
You guys are an offshoot of the rationalist movement for Pete’s sake.
Yeah, but an offshoot can go more than one way. For example "post-rationalism" is still an offshoot of rationalism (though I think we still have a decent amount of unrinoic Rats). In any case my personal belief is that the Rationalist movement was an utter failure as far as truth-seeking is concerned, and that is because of, rather than despite, Rationalist principles.
Isn’t pushing back on simple logical fallacies to be expected around here?
It's certainly within the bounds of acceptable discourse, and so is pushing back on the pushback.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
So how do you know immigration is such a blood soaked affair?
This is exactly what I mean. What do you do when institutions tasked with truth-finding do not make raw data available to the public, and only publish when it reaches the conclusions they wanted to reach to start with? We're indeed left with pretty unreliable ways to figure out the truth, but one thing is for sure "Uh, source?" is very disingenuous.
Meanwhile I’m able to find that the places that do report data on undocumented immigrant crime seem to typically report lower rates of crime than citizens.
There's several issues here. Like I mentioned, the datasets are not public, so the work is not replicable by anyone who'd want to double-check it. Secondly, the category of "US-born" has little to no implications on the debate. Members of the various rape-gangs in Britain were all "British-born", and yet none of them would exist, if Britain had a more strict immigration policy.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
If the data isn't published and accessible to the public in an easily parsable format, it's a bit disingenuous to do the "um... source?" thing.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
Yeah, but "fear of being reported" does not boil down to being reported to the police. When MeToo was at it's peak, we've had progressives unrinonically argue that no one should ever hit on a woman at work, to the utter shock and horror of our local Europeans, for whom it's it would imply lowering the birthrate from "dangerously low" to "extinction level".
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
Mostly justified, quite frankly, unless they pick civilian non-elite target.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4d ago
They didn’t stop approaching because they were scared of being arrested for harassment
Who said anything about being arrested?
Your explanation for why apps are lower-fear is exactly why they'd be a shield against metoo.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
7d ago
There is such a thing as being afraid of something you can't predict - imagine being trapped with a bear or a member of one of those uncontacted tribes that sometimes shoot outsiders on sight
Why should I imagine them, and not a member of the society I live in, but one that has a very different worldview? Do you think I have no taboos? The one against surrogacy alone is on the same level as these people have against "racism". It's the fact that you this is considered an apt analogy, while arguing in their defense that gives a massive WTF quality.
Same to you, bro. If you lie about something that doesn't matter to me, it's not going to matter to me. I can't wrap my head around getting worked up about it.
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