2D3D
10d ago
Artillerymaxxing is what you do when you can't maneuver and have an excess of shells and barrels relative to other assets. Ukraine going artillery isn't due to inherent superiority, its due to availability. Even now we've seen a reduction in Russian artillerymaxxing because artillery spares aren't as rich as they used to be and glide bombs have proven to be a much more effective weapon at the operational and even tactical level. Artillery duels have given way to FPV ambushes or glide-bomb centric strongpoint degradation.
Stocking artillery isn't great because primers degrade, but for the west they just churn out new bags, whereas for the soviet stuff you can't tell if the shell is dead untill its inside the tube. Yes, soviet stuff stays in better shape longer than fiddly western stuff, but slathering stuff in cosmoline is its own utter hell and even rugged 80s era stuff doesn't survive 40 years. 10-2 year preservation windows could be stretched under PERFECT conditions to maybe 30-35 years, so the vast parks of Russian equipment hit a reactivation wall. Artillery is used early, used fast, and now gives way to whatever can actually be produced. Given the vids of the fronts, that ends up being Chinese golf buggies and FPV drones, not T14 terminators.
2D3D
10d ago
I keep thinking of the Toyota war where Libyans bumrushed tanks in the first week and then couldn't keep up logistics and maintenance tempo so they got stomped by cheat Hiluxes. Libya had supplies... in Libya. Logistics depth and reach under threat has not been stress tested at all so it remains to be seen how exactly things will pan out in a kinetic peer engagement requiring flag planting.
2D3D
10d ago
Once Severodonetsk/Popasna/Bakhmut/Avdiika/Chasiv Yar fall the kokhols will be shattered and they will fall back like the cornered rats they are. They totally won't fall back to the next defensive line that, undermanned and underprovisioned as they are, still managed to hold off the unsupported spears.
It'll work this time! This time the kokhols really are on the ropes and going to collapse! Once Kramatorsk falls then Russia will have finally achieved the territorial victory they achieved in 2014!
2D3D
10d ago
For feminists women in prisons aren't a relevant entity because women are wonderful so their being in prison is simultaneously a removal of the halo effect and expulsion from the category of women and thus are irrelevant to Womxn. Trannies on the other hand are a relevant entity outside of the prison for Womxn, so catering maximally to them is automatically a high payoff if you have rejected criminal women from the Womxn coalition. Pity about the second order effect of other women self selecting out of the Womxn but thats just false consciousness and internalized misogyny.
2D3D
10d ago
The stakes for female status games is who seizes the pie and distributes it thusly, the stakes for male status games is getting more pies or defending pies from raiders, or failing which destroying the pies so no one gets to eat. The reign of Ottoman Sultanas consolidated and preserved Suleimans expansions for nearly a century, an unheard of territorial expansion when succession crises were the literal order of the day. Women have a role in societies, and can perform them better than men precisely because they are not men. Unsurprisingly societies that had long term continual civic stability without women in charge had un-men running the show: eunuchs and celibate clergy. The value in having the authoritatively incapable administer the machine prevents claimants from fearing what is effectively management buyouts and what keeps the machine going in lull or transition periods.
The tradeoff is when the administration thinks it is the authority and parasites itself into power. The trappings of authority are not the muscle inside the fist, and when push comes to shove the kinetic authority must assert itself. Ironically the women who know the game therefore are incentivized to accumulate and wield authority rather than administrative alliances because their authority is more likely to be directly challenged. Theres a point here somewhere about Merkels weakness being indulged by the German public lead to the wif schiffen das death knell, but I can't be bothered to spell it out.
2D3D
10d ago
The unspoken gentlemans agreement of western inviolability actually does hold some weight: do whatever you want to your own people just dont attack whites. ISIS hung up dozens of men on meat hooks and then slit their throats so that their blood ran in rivers down the drain, but its Kayla whateverherface that captured global attention because some white do gooder didn't enjoy the normal aura protection they had during the hippie traip era. Mexican cartels just slaughter paisas in villages so urban fresas (white girls) don't even pay attention. Ukrainians and Russians and that entire warsaw pact area aren't thought as White, they're slavs doing slavshit, so they're unimportant.
Jihadi John and ISIS mistake was to openly declare war on the west and encourage actual action domestically to kill whites. If they stuck with killing Sunnis and Kurds they'd be dismissed as sandshit barbarians unimportant to the west. Kill your own and don't kill the westerner and no media will pay attention. This obviously means Taiwans only line of defense is encouraging as many whites to migrate there as possible, and so their courting of MAGA influencers is to raise the hostage value of white sexpats.
2D3D
10d ago
If live footage of atrocities motivated anyone at all there would have been a scorched earth campaign to clease Brazil and Mexico of gangs, followed by seperatists in Ethiopia and Sudan. Funkytown remains one of the most gruesome videos out there of human suffering being gleefully meted out by enthusiastic participants fully aware of what they were doing, and there are countless amputated corpses scattered in the vast Brazillian forests where the flayings and murders were filmed specifically to be shared with the families of the deceased. Ukraine and Palestine are relevant for retarded domestic political reasons in any country that professes to care, and for that reason livestreamed mass murders in Sudan are just dismissrd as sandshit.
2D3D
10d ago
The way Russians are being treated is similar to how transphobes were treated during peak wokeness
Thermostatically relevant moral cause offers avenue for posturing. Its proximate to "demand for racism outstripping supply" and thus every small incident needs to be emphasized as maximally as possible within the attention window before people stop caring.
No one (in general, not the poster specifically but I won't care either way) cared about Maidan or whateverfuck other than its relevance as an anti-CIA USA bad bulletpoint. The relevance of Russia in 2022 due to the invasion is probably the biggest shot of adrenaline to the Russian national psyche because they are now a feared invading monster in the eyes of the west, not a dying gas station surrounded by rotting tank graveyards. Unlike (most) transphobes, Russians revel in being treated as scary enemies of the west, because they correctly calculate that the west is not interested enough in ruining their comfy lives by pocketbook or nuclear hellfire. Playing up the big bad unstoppable enemy is great especially if the only cost is a bunch of Buryats and Dagestanis that you were hoping to get rid off anyways.
The specific tactical strategic macro historical whateverfuck navelgazing about immutable historical characteristics or other personal pet explanatory theories are just fitting a messy situation onto personal prior beliefs. Russia Ukraine offers a delicious discussion ground for Grand Theory on (military/history/racial character/jews) without consequence, because Ukraine and Russia are irrelevant just as Sudan is irrelevant. A choice is being made to pay attention, and a choice can be made to ignore. Can't do that for Israel because of retarded domestic US politics, can't ignore China because Altman needs to justify his ascension to AI Godhood.
2D3D
14d ago
Patriarchy is elders the managung incompetent and emotive youngins and the greatest trick of women was to have men take the label when mothers are the ones who exert control over their daughters and other inferiors far more viciously than men do.
2D3D
14d ago
Isn't this just status games? In the workplace continued status communication by polite engagement is necessary for subsequent cooperative potential. Its just not worth it to change an existing dynamic. Ideal solution is to flag oneself as unimportantly heterodox in advance. You know Im not the same as you but I dont care enough to change your mind so dont bother trying to change mine, so lets talk normie shit like baseball or weather where fundamental value flash isn't axiomatic to our functional dynamic.
Let it rip for nonrepeated games though. At house parties I have great fun openly stating my maximalist positions when interrogated because I don't care about my reputation among oneoffs. They can bitch to the host later about the evil nazi that somehow entered the party but thats the hosts fault for inviting me in the first place if he knew I'd accept leaving my cave for a meatspace rando sorting hat ceremony.
2D3D
14d ago
You definitely mean east asians (culturally) when you state the above as asians. The personal is gauche and embarrassing to asians, and consequently the personal is simply unimportant to others. Me communicating the unimportance of my life to you is an expectation that you'll reciprocate and not try to impose the supposed importance of your life onto me. Sinic small talk of any import will be on topics of casual depth, like food or gaming strat or makeup tips or workout tips. No sinic ever wants to hear anything about your dating mishaps or family drama.
To a lesser extent this means that emotionally in-tune East Asians are inevitably westernized to some degree and are insufferably narcissistic to normie sinic eyes. Saying you have trauma doesn't make you more sympathetic to me, it makes you an uncomfortable oversharer trying to get mental expenditure from me that I simply cannot provide.
This changes when doors are closed and alcohol is involved. What happens in the ktv stays in the ktv.
2D3D
14d ago
I think theres a self selection mechanism going on where people who are aware that they have rope to hang around themselves know better than to be Chotinered. Those who are too stupid to realize they are entrappable don't show up. It is entirely possible that these people being interviewed aren't aware of their reputational flameout during the interview with ostensibly friendly New Yorker and then are blindsided that people think they're coming across as retarded once the piece is published. No how can you think I'm wrong can't you see the strength of my conviction?
2D3D
14d ago
The geographic setting might have been part of it. Could have also resulted in a snowball where one initial batch of highly forwarded "bro what the fuck is this" triggers an interest cascade and grok just starts inserting white farm murders to every african query on twitter because engagement farming is its reward mechanism.
That would also explain the hitler praising or whatever other bullshit Musk was accused of trainng grok to do which I also never saw. My absolute lack of social media (sans perhaps this forum) is once again saving me.
2D3D
14d ago
I was using grok ALOT just to stress test it so yes I was doing it within 8 hours of news publications.
But you raise a good point about twitter reply. I never got that.
I still maintain I never got any white farmer murder stuff on grok itself. If its a twitter reply thing it invites speculation about recursive feedback loop.
2D3D
14d ago
I can accept that were it not for my repeated failures to get grok to try and repeat the story or shades of it with any indirect prompt. I mean I really tried. I said things like "whats the crime situation in South Africa" and I got really anodyne crime stats about joburg and pretoria. I asked about white emigration and I got answers about the attractiveness of Australia and UK for afrikaners. At no point did I get a five alarm fire about the white farmer crimes.
I can accept that I maybe never got it due to some arcane blocks I may have put on my own metausage, but I don't think I was that smart or careless. I fundamentally think that it was a journo trying to gotcha, screaming "MUSK IS A NAZI TRYING TO MAKE WHITE PEOPLE VICTIMS" and then the story gets repeated across the journo sphere. Everyone assumed they weren't getting grok to repeat apartheid adjacent narratives and concluded the absence was proof of a coverup. Journalism 101
2D3D
15d ago
Im just being facetiously churlish toward one of the more prominent Names in this antiprogressive wonkspace, I'm not autistically invested enough to either remember or trawl through the deep lore. All I remember is something about Tracingwoodgrain starting an anti-motte subreddit back before this forum self exiled fully and that subreddit had really some great posts interspersed with really intense egotripping personal drama that sometimes bled out to this refuge here. I don't know the specifics of why I mentally flag rationalwiki drama as adjacent but my gut says it is and I updoot my own gut over faggy shit like "research" or "diligence".
2D3D
15d ago
Arab wikipedia is fucking WILD. Though supposedly the top contender is Serbian wikipedia for ultranationalist eevisionism.
Having said that I personally found Rationalwiki to be continuously teetering on the edge of progressive fracturing, like it was the wikipedia equivalent of the the Judean Peoples Front. Fighting an internal battle for legitimacy among warring progressives and deeply despising lesswrong turbotards. One day I'll actually go investigate what actually happened with lesswrong or whatever that made tracingwoodgrain persona non grata here.
Wait did I just beetlejuice something? Why am I suddenly filled with immense fear that I have summoned candlej-
2D3D
15d ago
Is it definitively established that Grok was pushing white genocide theories to everyone? I tried to get it to repeat the theory to me but I never got it. I strongly suspect journos were disingenuously framing grok for gotcha moments or just too stupid to realize they were seeding the ground for grok to parrot whatever the journos wanted. As always, journalist delenda est.
2D3D
15d ago
The best result for grokapedia (btw fuck musk for both ruining grokking as a verb and making his pet ai sound like a rejected flintstones villain) would be to pastebin wikipedia wholesale and add a regex replacer trained on conservapedia for semantic weights. All the (shit) factual accuracy with all the moral softframing purged and replaced with awesome Phyllis Schlafly schizoposting. It wont be any more accurate but it'll be way better than the captured wiki trannyjanny circlejerk.
2D3D
17d ago
The weight of evidence for 'child abusers' is the single instance of them hitting a child, with repeated proof furthering the original case. Followup apology vids of 'its just context bro' while the child actually has bruises visible don't help. When the case looks bad enough it requires the aggrieved party to outright state that there was no harm performed, and that is why children and pets - not animals as a whole specifically pets present within an asymmetric power dynamic - are given a level of public sympathy not available to other interaction scenarios.
It is necessary to highlight that this is a giant TOUCH GRASS RETARDS HOLY SHIT moment, but for the fact that Hasan occupies a hilariously stupid intersection of IRL to Internet thoughtspace: a terminally online retard agitating for real life changes. Asmongold wants his vidya to keep having big titty white girls and awesome dudes doing awesome stuff, and any IRL activism such as it exists is expeditionary raiding to push back invaders. Hasan wants to stream while talking about the necessity of the revolution, and never actually do anything in dirty meatspace where people can actually disagree with him. The digital world Hasan cocooned himself in is emblematic of leftist echo chamber circlejerking, but, unlike political podcasters that clone their IRL bubbles into online islands, Hasan operates in a visible manner that allows a surprising amount of bleedthrough not just from IRL falsifiability but also from adjacent digital cocoons like le epic redditor pupper protection brigades. He evades from all sides when he can, calling himself an online streamer irrelevant to real life influence but also a socialist whose voice must be raised as a totem for the youth to follow. Turns out animal abuse is something his slicked broccolihair can't deflect though.
2D3D
17d ago
Someone want to give the expected IRR hurdle for high usage low conversion platform aggregators? The optimistic discount rates given to investors at pitch rarely map onto actual as use statistics or patterns, and oftentimes the VCs are number crunchers looking at TAM conversions instead of understanding how ginned up stats are disguising other more usable metrics. Oftentimes platforms have to find a defensible USP to slather on top of the blitzscaling machine they've built and hope the narrative of the USP holds when the blitzscaling is creaking under fake incentives, and that just becomes a bagholder escape exercise.
Tumblr, Reddit, Twitter, Discord are famous examples of high use platforms unable to convert their userbases into monetizable assets without significant curation and often full on self destruction once the USP got exposed to scrutiny. A more quantifiable example of platform aggregation failure is the facebook pivot-to-video where autoplay vids got counted as full engagement and caused many platforms to both invest in video architecture as well as creation, when in reality no one was actually watching that much video (that came later on with tiktok and COVID doomscrolling cemented that operational modus). Facebooks shift to video specifically meant plenty of VCs were investing in esports specifically, which had to be written off in later years and which clearly showed changes in term sheets post 2020 after the charade was exposed.
Its also true that we are likely still in the overhang of ZIRP, with an irrational exuberance in market strength due to Trump and rapid capital shifting during this economic chaos. We still are in the window for a lagged interest rate stressor, and mortgages are peaking above 07 rates though that means nothing in this differentiated environment. In any case this ZIRP overhang still sees capital sloshing around looking for someplace, ANYPLACE to put money into to get alpha, and the demand for a story outweighs the demand for a technically sound assessment. No ones going to listen to the sysadmin saying the usage stats for AI wrapper chatbots don't make sense and will collapse when regex parsers are shown to be as useless as BPO outsourcing consultancies, VC Principals listen to the confident guy that promises he will change how humans work thanks to their Scarlett Johanssen sexvoice AI assistant reminding grandma to take her meds.
2D3D
19d ago
The hoped for outcome of 'money makes traps politically desirable' was, unfortunately, not achieved. The war against the machine must continue.
You get over it by doing all the kinky stuff with HER going forward, and if thats off the table for physiological or psychological reasons then you accept who she used to be is not who she is now. She is not the same person today she was yesterday and will not be the same person tomorrow she was 10 years ago.
If your own personal value matrix emphasizes (parnter.bodycount)<(own.bodycount) then either accept that the partner is lying or buy a mail order bride.
It must be noted that you MUST know at least the vagueness of whatever your partner has gotten up to in the past. Finding old nudes of your partner even if you possess your "own" will still be weird if it was never mentioned even in brief. I don't know how this will ultimately extend to the inevitable of kids finding out what mom and dad were like if social media archives go far back enough.
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