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PaperclipPerfector  5mo ago (text post)   24805 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of May 6, 2024

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...why? This feels like a complete non-sequitur.

What they are openly trying to do to Trump is as bad as an assassination attempt, is my point.

From who's point of view? The voters? The average global citizen? Surely in Trump's own subjective experience getting assassinated is worse than going to prison.

Average global citizen - depends if you like him

Voters - I think more than not think it’s an abuse of process

Trump - he has a big ego. There would be a certain historic parallel if he was assassinated with Julius Caesar. Who probably is a good comp for his career so far. If little Ron or Vivek or someone not known emerged as Augustus finishing his goals and Trump was remembered as Caeser then he might not mind being assassinated

I think @JTarrou called it a year ago - Trump is Tiberius Gracchus. After he goes down, every future populist leader will know what's waiting for them.

This fits but I actually thought of the Praetorian Guard too when it comes to the Roman analogies.

When dealing with the contemporary version of it, I hope we don't have to wait as long as the Romans did for Severus Septimius to put the Praetorian Guard in its place.

I remember that posts. But Trump appears to no longer be Gracchus. Trump seems to be rising from the dead. He survived the Jan 6 loss in popularity. Crushed the GOP nomination. I saw on Twitter today that everyone on Wall St assumes he’s won the election. I know the prediction markets say 50-50 but I don’t feel those vibes at all and prediction markets have some issues. If the elections goes as expected and he’s survived all of this that feels like he’s crossed the rubicon with all the memory of his own experience being Gracchus. I think we have to upgrade him to Caeser if he pulls off the election victory.

I'd say...

  • He's T. Gracchus if they manage to keep him out of power this time, and cut his political career off in some way which seems illegitimate to the right. (Which is what I weakly predict, but you're better off listening to the markets than me.)

  • He's Marius If he becomes President again, and puts it down after 4 years, but keeps being a kingmaker in Republican politics for the rest of his life, hobbling the right wing by his compulsive thirst for publicity/glory.

  • He's Julius if he becomes President, possibly staying in power more than 4 years, but then gets killed.

  • He's Octavian if he becomes President and stays in power more than 4 years, and makes it stick. "First Citizen" is too on the nose, but maybe "President Emeritus" would work? The perpetual Putin to the elected Medvedev. Sure, he's a Representative and Speaker of the House, and also a Senator and President Pro Tempore of the Senate, and the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, and most of the Cabinet, but that's totally normal for the greatest politician ever!

Or it could go some other way. Mostly I think the T. Gracchus resemblance is about what happens next. The next right-wing populist to successfully run for national office will know what they're up against, and if they're smart they'll plan for it. And maybe it's Trump, and he gets to be Marius, too.

(Was January 6 a symbolic journey to the underworld? There was a shaman and a human sacrifice...)

Trump is given a choice: Go to prison for the rest of your life or with probably P get assassinated. For what value of P is Trump indifferent? If it's for a P>.9 the two are very similar.

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