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I think the Trump strategy is to gamble everything on a big win in the upcoming elections. It's a bit reckless, but it's not stupid. The border issue is hurting Biden with the voters. The Republicans had a choice between a temporary compromise now or a better chance to win enough power to get everything they want in 2025. They chose to go for the win.
You call his decision self-serving, but from a game theory perspective that's the whole point. Trump is inseparable from Trumpism now. If he doesn't win and get rid of his enemies then he'll spend the rest of his life on trial or in jail. For voters who call their representatives Republican-In-Name-Only, it makes perfect sense to support a candidate who can't back down and retire to a comfortable life of wealth and influence.
I addressed this in my paragraph before the last section. Not only does Trump need to win, he'd almost certainly need a trifecta. The odds of this are somewhere between 20-50% based on prediction markets, and any bill they'd be able to clinch would likely only be 10-20% more conservative in the best plausible outcomes. Then, it'd have to pass the final hurdle of Trump actually caring enough to do it. He didn't accomplish any major legislation on the issue even when he had a trifecta and instead focused on other priorities and only did EO's on immigration.
In terms of getting an enduring compromise, it'd almost certainly be easier if they started with this bill, and then just extended it, possibly adding to it slightly if possible. "Hey, remember that bipartisan immigration bill that fixed the border crisis? Let's just extend that" is a pretty easy sell. Even if Trump gets his trifecta and wanted to pass immigration reform, if history is any guide then Trump would screw it up in the long term by doing something like calling it the Subhuman Infestation Removal Act, Democrats would freak out, and they'd revoke it the next time they're in power.
Sure, I understand why Trump is doing it. What I don't like is that the Republican base is just going along with it. They're so enamored with Trump's vibes that they're willing to sacrifice easy, concrete policy wins.
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