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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   24538 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of May 6, 2024

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Anything could happen, but it hasn't. People have been predicting the demise of the dollar for 60 years, from weird baskets of BRIC currency to crypto, to gold. It only gets stronger! It is interesting that people are always calling for the fall of the mighty USD and yet when I travel these days I can only buy more and more with the same amount of cash! Call me when that changes.

I don't expect the demise of the dollar before the US comes close to defaulting on its debt, which is still a ways away. But the deficit's steadily been growing relative to GDP. (And even then, I don't expect a total collapse.)

The US will never default, we are in a better place than all other countries, hence the strong dollar. Unless you think all other players are totally irrational investing in it? If we are defaulting, the rest of the world has already fallen apart and it doesn't matter. Like people who buy gold for the apocalypse...when what you really need is beans and bullets.

The US will never default, we are in a better place than all other countries, hence the strong dollar.

Okay, the US won't default, but at some point it'll need to start printing money, at least, to avoid it.

That is:

The US wants to pay for stuff.

To raise funds to do so, it sells bonds.

Demand for bonds is not limitless.

US spending keeps growing.

Eventually it will hit the limit of those willing to buy US debt.

At that point, it must either print money to pay for things, or fail to pay for things (that is, default).

Unless you think all other players are totally irrational investing in it?

It wouldn't surprise me. But really, all you need to buy a bond is just to think that things will be fine within the lifetime of the bond, which is entirely possible even if you think it's going to collapse in a few decades.

If we are defaulting, the rest of the world has already fallen apart and it doesn't matter. Like people who buy gold for the apocalypse...when what you really need is beans and bullets.

I see no reason to think the former is true. And the latter depends heavily on what kind of apocalypse you're in.

Again, we have the strongest currency in the world. If it goes bad then all others have gone before it. We abuse the shit out of that and we're going to abuse it more. No one can say boo.

You keep saying this, and not addressing what I said about the mechanisms of how the US would end up in a situation of scrambling to avoid default.

Which point in that list was wrong (following "that is:")?

What is the actual mechanism by which the US can keep borrowing? Who, specifically, wants US dollars, and will keep buying up our debt indefinitely, even as it continues to grow to be a larger and larger share of US and world GDP?

Instead of just giving a, "we'll be fine, someone will stop it," as you have us sleepwalk into disaster.

There is no mechanism. You don't get it. There are no "rules", people and countries do what they can. The USA is best placed in the whole world, monetarily and militantly, there is no end to what they will use that for. It doesn't have to "make sense" or "be fair". No one is going to stop it, because there is no one to do so. There is also no disaster to sleepwalk into, the USA will just keep winning.

Quit with the magical thinking.

There is always a mechanism. It might change, be fluid, sure. But somewhere, somehow, if the US wants to do stuff, it needs to get people willing to do stuff. And there always, always, must be some mechanism by which that's happening, some way or ways to motivate people to put labor and materials toward whatever it wants.

What I'm asserting is that the current method (pay for it with dollars, using promises of future dollars in order to get enough dollars to cover what taxation isn't sufficing for) is being done in an unsustainable fashion, and will have to stop, or otherwise be revised eventually.

I was saying that that problem would eventually be remedied by printing money, which should have the effects I discussed (A worldwide shift away from dollars, to some extent).

(Heavy taxation or cutting spending are also possible, but probably harder to get through the political process.)

So what are you suggesting instead? You keep bringing up force. Are you suggesting that we'll impose a tribute on other countries? That's possible. (Though definitely a big departure from now, when we give countries a ton of money, instead of exacting it)

Edit: If innovation in AI or something causes sufficiently large US-centered economic growth to increase tax revenue enough to pay for things, that could also work, provided it's not also accompanied with corresponding spending increases.

Edit 2: If the US does impose tribute, ancient Athens might be a cool comparison.

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