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PaperclipPerfector  7mo ago (text post)   3598 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for May 5, 2024

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I first came across it when it was mentioned on /r/CredibleDefense in the days after October 7. I couldn't believe Israel would be so shortsighted to make such a deal because of the obvious incentives it would give to potential hostage takers with such an exchange ratio (1000+ prisoners for 1 hostage).

According to one poll a the time, 79% of Israelis supported the deal with 14% opposed so it seemed to have broad public support. Some released prisoners unsurprisingly went on to commit more attacks against Israel.

The deal was bad for Israel. Incredibly bad. It probably influenced hostage taking on October 7.

Some other tidbits:

Edit: It seems the Israeli consensus may have been driven by a high value placed on their children due to historical persecution and cultural values. I still think it was incredibly shortsighted because they saved one life to incentivise the loss of many many more in the future.

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