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Notes -
What is the current prevailing Israeli opinion of the Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange? I can sort of imagine what the steelman would be at the time, but given what we know now, does anyone still seriously defend this?
The people rallied and there was an extensive campaign by the family. Netanyahu was always opposed to these deals and had written about it. But the mob won out. Even now there are rallies about accepting any price to get hostages back, it’s just that for once more people have a desire for revenge than are willing to help the enemy to do so.
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I first came across it when it was mentioned on /r/CredibleDefense in the days after October 7. I couldn't believe Israel would be so shortsighted to make such a deal because of the obvious incentives it would give to potential hostage takers with such an exchange ratio (1000+ prisoners for 1 hostage).
According to one poll a the time, 79% of Israelis supported the deal with 14% opposed so it seemed to have broad public support. Some released prisoners unsurprisingly went on to commit more attacks against Israel.
The deal was bad for Israel. Incredibly bad. It probably influenced hostage taking on October 7.
Some other tidbits:
Edit: It seems the Israeli consensus may have been driven by a high value placed on their children due to historical persecution and cultural values. I still think it was incredibly shortsighted because they saved one life to incentivise the loss of many many more in the future.
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