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Notes -
Louisiana controls the Mississippi river chokepoint, which is pretty strategic. Just as an exercise in good geopolitics it would be smart to secure it if you could, I think.
Similar deal with Florida (gives you much more control over the Gulf). I think you'd also (with TX + FL) scoop most of the US' space launch infrastructure (although Vandenberg is in California) and that could pay off considerably down the road.
Security benefits can be a bit hard to quantify at times, so whether or not that would "pay off" or not, I don't know. Given some sort of national breakup, from Texas' POV it seems like the smart thing to do might be to pursue a security/diplomatic alliance with other states that secede without committing to financial support, which would increase mutual safety without dragging Texas down in a negative financial spiral.
I have a theory that if some states broke off from the US of A without a wholesale US collapse, it might cause some very interesting fiscal effects that would bolster the long-run standing of the breakaway states, but I think in the short term even with a mutually amicable separation it would cause a considerable financial shakeup in the best-case scenario.
Oh, paying the bills for southern Louisiana- albeit a not-as-nice as current southern Louisiana- makes strategic sense for an independent Texas, because the mouth of the Mississippi is very important. The place is basically run by engineers from A&M anyways and cutting the local elites down to scale is pretty doable and cuts admin costs drastically by reducing corruption.
But Texas accepting responsibility for the fiscal health of everything in the south that has to be subsidized seems unlikely. And while Florida, Georgia, North Carolina might be able to pay their own way, on a fiscal basis they’re not there to subsidize others.
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