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I would gently posit that your level of conscientious organization is slightly higher effort than these flash mobs. Occupy Wall Street and Chaz exhibit hallmarks of being coalescing of disparate bedfellows rather than a coordinated mobilization effort. Coordinated efforts if anything exhibit geographical dispersion to maximize visibility, like deliberate disruptions of uninvolved parties and events by the pro-pal protestors. Staying in a single region to protest dance is just a magnet attracting the crazies, and those tend to dissolve the moment a power struggle arises.
The CHAZ/CHOP in particular had 3 phases, at least to my eye. The first had a lot of influence from the local anarchist community, and had some rhetoric about seceding from the US and suchlike, hence the name "autonomous zone". Then there was some sort of low-key power struggle, possibly just the natural result of all the anarchist-style meetings that were going on, and the BLM faction came out on top, and ditched the more abstract stuff in favor of focusing on police interactions with black people, and changed the name to "occupied protest". Then the police backed off, and there was no resistance, and the normie-lefty contingent kept growing, and it turned into a giant homeless encampment, resembling Hamsterdam from "The Wire" but with smartphones and guns. And then enough people died there that public opinion soured and the mayor felt comfortable shutting it down.
After the first few days, the CHAZ was just where you went if you were a lefty. At first it was the core protestors against the police (the East Precinct substation being right there), but it spread out to people who liked to protest in general, and people who wanted to change something about America's police or America's treatment of black people, and also people who got bored of sitting around in lockdown. I was regularly in the area for other reasons, but one time I think I heard someone talk about "coming down to the protest to see what was happening today".
There didn't need to be a co-ordinator, it just became a Schelling point for every protestor in the city.
I've seen antifa show up to events a couple of times, and I don't doubt that they've got some form of co-ordination, although it might not be very centralized. The earlier riots and looting in Seattle might have had some co-ordination like that, where people passed the word on to friends, and then everyone showed up that evening to a march that rapidly degenerated. But the CHAZ/CHOP thing seemed organic.
Your assessment largely tracks with what I read, with a single point I'll raise about Raz Simone turning warlord at phase 3 being the major trigger for a violence spiral, instead of armed lefties suddenly finding their christiania.
Calling it a schelling point really reminds me of OWS, just where people WENT if they had nothing better to do. I was at Zucotti and there was this bartender from Georgia who quit his job to live a crust-punk existence with the other OWS. This was like 2 days before the crazies started using the park as their bully pulpit and the progressive stack became implemented to manage the crazies, only for that to morph into its own retarded beast.
Maybe Raz did something I'm not aware of, but the reports I heard seemed overblown to me. "Warlord of Capitol Hill" sounded like a catchy phrase that got picked up and tossed around right-wing media, and persisted virally until the end. But maybe that meme contributed to public opinion turning, allowing the shutdown, regardless of whether it was true.
I wasn't down there a lot, but I never felt unsafe because of the large men with guns. It was the opposite, actually: I worried more about the criminals, crazies, addicts, and people currently high, and I thought the presence of the "security" team made it less likely that one of those other people would start something. That's just one person's perspective, of course. But I don't recall hearing about them being involved in the rapes or murders or fencing or drug dealing or whatever else went down.
I do still wonder about extortion, though - there's a liquor store across the street from the police station, right in the heart of the CHAZ/CHOP, and it seemed to survive without visible damage (other than graffiti outside). It's hard to imagine someone there not wanting to shake down the store for free booze, but either they didn't, or it was covered up. I assume the people who run the place wouldn't say anything, because they want to stay safe.
Your OWS story does sound very familiar. The incident that triggered the shutdown of the CHOP was a shooting, that left a black 16-year-old boy dead and a 14-year-old boy wounded. Apparently the kid was from San Diego and had borrowed some money from family the previous Wednesday, to travel north to be part of the protest. Sunday night, he died in a shooting that had some connection to a carjacked SUV, although reports agree that someone else had stolen the SUV and brought it to the CHOP, so last I heard it was still unclear what he and the other kid were doing around it.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/everybody-down-what-happened-at-the-chop-shooting-that-killed-a-teenager-and-led-to-the-areas-shutdown/
Raz illegally transfered "semiautomatic assault weapons" without a background check, which is a crime in WA and supposedly an enforcement priority for the party. Needless to say there was no attempt to prosecute anyone involved, because the law was only intended to be used against political enemies.
Yeah, he did that.
There's a whole thing about the City of Seattle and King County selectively not enforcing certain laws (although the City of Seattle has gotten better, while King County is still playing progressive while the city suffers the results). Plus the thing about how a lot of gun control laws primarily target lawful users but ignore the illegal users who actually do most of the killing. I'm libertarian enough that I like having few laws, strictly enforced, and while I have some doubts about the wisdom of the 2nd amendment in the modern world, it - unlike abortion - is in the fucking Constitution until repealed.
But was it that specific event that caused the negative publicity and contributed to the shutdown? I'm curious; I don't know what it looked like to people outside. I was focused on the innumerable local problems, plus recovering from covid and dealing with some other life stuff.
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