anarchonomicon.com
An Epic length essay of mine in which I lay out my theory of history and why briefly summarized: The Age of the nation state is almost certainly coming to an end under the corroding forces of decentralizing military technology and institutional decay.
The future will not resemble post French Revolution centralized governments asserting their control over each other, but rather will slowly come to resemble the Greek City states (misnomer) or the Holy roman empire's vast network of thousands of polities and war making entities.
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Notes -
As Simon Kuznets' saying goes, there are four types of countries in the world: developed, undeveloped, Japan, and Argentina.
The latter two have defied the expectations of economists the world over for decades, recently in particular, and as we are now learning with the consequences of ZIRP in countries that do not utterly control the supply of their real estate, policies that justify themselves by the fact that these exceptionally weird economies have survived doing them are at best audacious and at worst ruinous.
The USA is neither Japan, nor Argentina, and has its own specificities (some of which the OP points at) that would have potentially catastrophic consequences for the entire world if it hyperinflated the dollar. The world hegemon that guarantees all shipping lanes, whose debt is the reserve currency, festooned with the most powerful army ever assembled, not to mention a competitive nuclear arsenal, suddenly unable to pay real wages to its legions? The fall of the USSR would be a cakewalk in comparison.
And, as I’ve said below, results into balkanization into smaller, poorer, but definitely in continuity regionally hegemonic empires.
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