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Notes -
MAGA terrorism. I've spent a lot of time going door to door for candidates. There are a lot of hot-and-cold-running crazies on the R side of the aisle. And while we have seen the odd beheading or guy driving his car at the FBI headquarters, we haven't seen anything big scale. We're going to see some massacre where people are waving Trump and Q flags. The reaction to this will dominate the election coverage. Will it turn off the BlueLivesMatter folks when somebody shoots a cop executing a warrant against some QAnon who takes her child on the run with her?
Chinese economic collapse. We've been playing China's Final Warning about various property developers in the WSJ and everywhere else for years now. I think a lot of people have started to tune it out, to be honest. But it's increasingly clear that China is cooking its books, with suspicious editing of population figures among the most obvious signs. There is real fear that China might go the way of Japan, getting old and staying important, but ceasing to expand its role in the world. But if we saw a sudden Chinese crisis in the shadow banking sector or who knows where else that we aren't looking yet, the results in the short term would be destructive to the world economy in unpredictable ways. The sudden destruction of the Chinese economy would doom Biden, forcing a sudden recession on him.
Israel might really cross the line. I'm betting on either a true massacre, that even the best NYT editor can't squeeze into the passive voice, or a truly shocking example of the Hannibal Directive.
Ukraine is unlikely to lose in a way that seriously impacts the election. At worst you'd see a new, Pro-Russian government installed in Kiev. But...what if Ukraine wins? What if we're treated to Azov death squads in Crimea on TikTok? Don't think these nationalist psychopaths are going to be friendly to Collaborators. What if they're able to terror-bomb enough of Russian oil infrastructure to paralyze Russian oil exports and drive up the price of oil to the point that the global economy is impacted?
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