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With the shift of college educated voters to the democrats, I expect this to be more common. The highly educated are much more likely to turn out for non-presidential elections (republicans benefited from this in previous elections as well). But there's a ton of voters that only show up every 4 years, and only vote for president, and those demographics seem to be sliding towards the GOP.
Also worth noting the Trump was not running in those elections -- to the extent that the guy has some reality distortion field going on, it does not seem to extend to his hangers-on; this does not me that it's not still working for him.
Sure, but the issue is there's evidence like I pointed out above that's even fallen off - see Trump's small donor donations, etc.
Now, yes, the person still posting about how the 2020 election is stolen, etc. he's obviously showing up, but not all the non-college educated Trump supporters he brought out in 2016 or 2020 are as connected as people assume, and for all the talk of Biden needing every vote, so does Trump. It turns out that you do need money to actually get lower propensity voters to turn out, and the state parties in many places are in state of disaster, Trump's focused on his legal bills, and so on.
Again, Trump could still win. I'm not denying that. But, his mythical ability to turn out non-voters is slightly overrated. Especially if his campaign, instead of being about immigration and closed factories, becomes obsessed with 1/6, his trials, and so on, as appears to be happening with his current speeches.
Donno man, the guy was turning up tens of thousands for boring (?) rallies at the height of a Deadly Pandemic (tm) -- say what you will, the man can turn a crowd. The money thing I'm pretty sure he proved false in 2016 -- as I recall he raised like half as much as Hill-dawg? For Trump, the media does it for free -- Biden does too to a great extent, we'll see how he campaigns but much of his messaging is actively distasteful to the black/hispanic (and now maybe Muslim, depending on the path chosen re: Israel) demographics.
Hey, as a leftie social democratic, I'm happy the right now seems to think they can win elections without money, without state parties, running specifically on things normies despise or think is highly weird, all depending on the greatest racial realignment in American political history since the Civil Rights Act, that has not shown up in any actual elections, including in 2022.
Again, Trump can win.
But, as I said, I firmly believe a Biden 54-45 win where the bottom falls out of the college educated vote for the GOP, and the non-white basically stays stable or drifts to Trump by a point or two, but also, the non-college educated vote for Trump also falls, ironically, in part due to some of the restrictions against mail-in voting passed in GOP-controlled purple and light-blue states, is more likely than a Trump win that's more than 2016 redux.
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