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In times of extreme pressure, fairly normal people are relatively likely to commit crimes. If you are starving, theft is much more justifiable and likely than if you are doing fairly well. In the 1800s a fairly normal person could end up destitute in a way that is unlikely to happen to that person today. There were probably more orphans in 1850 who stole things but could be straightened out. The person who in modern day Sweden has to steal in order to not starve has made a series of poor choices and could find another source of food than theft. Most criminals in the modern west aren't even destitute. The gangster driving around in a car blasting music isn't turning to crime in order to survive, but because of an outlier personality. As the pressures to commit crime are reduced it is expected that criminals will become harder to rehabilitate as there will be more neurological causes to their crimes. A Soviet soldier who raped a woman in Berlin in 1945 could have had a normal psychology. The man in Berlin in 2022 who drags a random woman into the bushes in a park last night is probably severely deranged.
Therefore, long sentences become an increasingly good idea as society gets richer, as it stops people who are dysfunctional from interacting with society and stops them from reproducing.
I don't really buy this. It one of those things that sounds plausible (hard times = more crime)but possibly wrong, or unsupported by evidence. crime was higher in the 50s and 60s despite the strong economy. There is probably no correlation or a small uptick. The fact that there is so much crime during strong economic times , committed by wealthy people (Like the Enron and WorldCom frauds and also Theranos ). White collar crime is especially bad because it affects so many people (thousands of investors, pensioners, credit card fraud that affects thousands of card holders, etc.)
https://www.lawyersreadytofight.com/2020/06/15/how-economic-depressions-impact-criminal-behavior/
For example, numerous analyses have shown that during the Great Depression, the U.S.’s worst economic downturn to date, overall crime rates steadily decreased after an initial surge of violent crime at the start of the period. Crime rates continued to fall even as 68 percent of Americans were at or below the poverty line in the late 1930s.
Agree. I think long sentences are good deterrents especially against organized, white collar crime. Someone can cite a study that maybe it's not that effective, but it's probably better than shorter sentences.
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