site banner
PaperclipPerfector  10mo ago (text post)   1749 thread views

Transnational Thursday for January 25, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

4
Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Finland: I haven't posted my news recaps here (now bimonthly instead of weekly), but they're still in my Substack. I've now posted a short overview of the presidential race and candidates, first round being on Sunday.

The Finnish president does not have as many duties as, say, the American president, but is not a completely unimportant figurehead, either. The president does have a status as a “values leader” to put forth their views on moral issues, though they are also supposed to be a national unifying figure, a democratically elected monarch. More importantly, they also represent Finland in foreign high-level meetings, such as the summit hosted by the current president Sauli Niinistö between Trump and Putin in Helsinki, 2018. I mean, that summit failed, but it was still a big opportunity for Finland!

In the recent times, the importance of the President is, if anything, heightened, as there’s a possibility the country might be at war within the next presidential term. Even though Finland would now be a part of a military alliance that would have joint command, the next President would assuredly have a role in keeping the nation together and promoting the Finnish cause abroad, Zelensky-style.

Since all the candidates have been playing it safe to present themselves as true successors to Niinistö, the race has been fairly bland. However, in the recent week or so, the race has been getting a bit of new electricity thanks to the rise of right-wing populist Jussi Halla-aho, one of the most notorious politicians in the country. It would be very unlikely to mean he becomes the president. His opponents fear that him even getting to the second round would bolster his anti-immigration, right-wing views in public debate. This has then led to new debates about tactical voting to prevent this, though it’s hard to say if this has led to anything beyond acrimony between other parties.

I then go through the candidates, starting with the minor ones and ending with the ones most likely to be the President.

The election came and went. Stubb and Haavisto, the main candidates in the polls, advanced to the next round. Halla-aho was left third, with a considerable gap to Haavisto.

The second round is in two weeks, and for the first time in my life, I'm seriously considering leaving an empty ballot. Not as a protest, but simply because this is the biggest Tweedledum and Tweedledee election I've seen in my lifetime; there's not much difference between the candidates expect in nuance (both are socially liberal, Atlanticist and Europhile), neither particularly causes me a feeling that I should vote for them, neither causes a feeling that I should vote for the other one to vote against them, neither causes much feelings at all.

On the other hand, this is probably the perfect state of politics to be in anyway...

In the recent times, the importance of the President is, if anything, heightened, as there’s a possibility the country might be at war within the next presidential term

Is this actually a considered a significant possibility in the zeitgeist? I'm aware that Putin has made bad-ish decisions in the recent past, but 'pick a fight with NATO over some not-particularly-attractive* real estate' seems a bit OTT?

*no offense, I love Finland -- but frankly I'm not sure Putin is enough of a fjord lover to be interested in the Nordics per-se

Finland doesn't have fjords. That's Norway.

The most likely scenario at this point would be a general NATO-Russia war, of course. in that case there would probably be some fighting in Finland, but it's very possible the biggest Finnish casualties would be among the troops sent to defend the Baltic states.

Finland doesn't have fjords

I blame the Russians!

One could also blame the Swedes, if the Swedes had been a bit more proactive in settling northern areas then the current Norwegian county of Finnmark, which has plenty of fjords, could now be a part of Finland.

What is this place?

This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.

The weekly Culture War threads host the most controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy; if in doubt, post!

Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts. You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.


Why are you called The Motte?

A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently, it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey", originally identified by philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."

On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.


New post guidelines

If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it. A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).

Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.

If in doubt, please post it!


Rules


Recommended Posts And Communities

Recommended Realtime Chats