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PaperclipPerfector  7mo ago (text post)   1675 thread views

Transnational Thursday for January 25, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Finland: I haven't posted my news recaps here (now bimonthly instead of weekly), but they're still in my Substack. I've now posted a short overview of the presidential race and candidates, first round being on Sunday.

The Finnish president does not have as many duties as, say, the American president, but is not a completely unimportant figurehead, either. The president does have a status as a “values leader” to put forth their views on moral issues, though they are also supposed to be a national unifying figure, a democratically elected monarch. More importantly, they also represent Finland in foreign high-level meetings, such as the summit hosted by the current president Sauli Niinistö between Trump and Putin in Helsinki, 2018. I mean, that summit failed, but it was still a big opportunity for Finland!

In the recent times, the importance of the President is, if anything, heightened, as there’s a possibility the country might be at war within the next presidential term. Even though Finland would now be a part of a military alliance that would have joint command, the next President would assuredly have a role in keeping the nation together and promoting the Finnish cause abroad, Zelensky-style.

Since all the candidates have been playing it safe to present themselves as true successors to Niinistö, the race has been fairly bland. However, in the recent week or so, the race has been getting a bit of new electricity thanks to the rise of right-wing populist Jussi Halla-aho, one of the most notorious politicians in the country. It would be very unlikely to mean he becomes the president. His opponents fear that him even getting to the second round would bolster his anti-immigration, right-wing views in public debate. This has then led to new debates about tactical voting to prevent this, though it’s hard to say if this has led to anything beyond acrimony between other parties.

I then go through the candidates, starting with the minor ones and ending with the ones most likely to be the President.

The election came and went. Stubb and Haavisto, the main candidates in the polls, advanced to the next round. Halla-aho was left third, with a considerable gap to Haavisto.

The second round is in two weeks, and for the first time in my life, I'm seriously considering leaving an empty ballot. Not as a protest, but simply because this is the biggest Tweedledum and Tweedledee election I've seen in my lifetime; there's not much difference between the candidates expect in nuance (both are socially liberal, Atlanticist and Europhile), neither particularly causes me a feeling that I should vote for them, neither causes a feeling that I should vote for the other one to vote against them, neither causes much feelings at all.

On the other hand, this is probably the perfect state of politics to be in anyway...

In the recent times, the importance of the President is, if anything, heightened, as there’s a possibility the country might be at war within the next presidential term

Is this actually a considered a significant possibility in the zeitgeist? I'm aware that Putin has made bad-ish decisions in the recent past, but 'pick a fight with NATO over some not-particularly-attractive* real estate' seems a bit OTT?

*no offense, I love Finland -- but frankly I'm not sure Putin is enough of a fjord lover to be interested in the Nordics per-se

Finland doesn't have fjords. That's Norway.

The most likely scenario at this point would be a general NATO-Russia war, of course. in that case there would probably be some fighting in Finland, but it's very possible the biggest Finnish casualties would be among the troops sent to defend the Baltic states.

Finland doesn't have fjords

I blame the Russians!

One could also blame the Swedes, if the Swedes had been a bit more proactive in settling northern areas then the current Norwegian county of Finnmark, which has plenty of fjords, could now be a part of Finland.

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