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I think KS, IN, NE, TX, AK, and KY are extremely unlikely to pass any such amendment. And I don't think the states Biden won are guaranteed, either. I think instead you're mistake the opinion of the court with the opinion of the country.
Nationally support is over 70% for gay marriage. Obviously differs by state but the opinion of the country is clearly on the side of allowing gay marriage.
Who cares? We're not talking nationally, we're talking about 38 separate states. I don't care that there are millions of Californians who are in favor of gay marriage, I care whether the Wyoming state legislature would approve an amendment to the constitution.
That opinion, by the way, is completely downstream of the opinion of the court, wrongly decided.
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There's a difference between supporting gay marriage and supporting a Constitutional amendment to explicitly allow it, though. There are a lot of meta-concerns in the latter around the Constitution that don't exist in the former. I'm not sure I'd bet a lot against such an amendment passing, even if there were some serious threat against gay marriage in some states, but I'd almost certainly bet against it.
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