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PaperclipPerfector  10mo ago (text post)   1951 thread views

Transnational Thursday for January 18, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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The real question will be how China reacts.

Indeed. I don't have quotes, but I heard that they threatened to invade, and while that is standard rhetoric, there are some signs that this time they might actually not be bluffing. Minihan's warning, for instance, predicted (a year ago) that this would be used as casus belli. There's also the hair-raising Paul Symon interview in roughly the same timeframe where he implied that "a linear path" leads to "major-power conflict"; the most obvious explanation for that comment is that the Five Eyes had detected preparations for a major Taiwan play, although I suppose there could be something else similarly dire.

The simple fact of the matter is that in the 2010s they had reason to hope for Taiwan agreeing to One Country, Two Systems (the "charm offensive" is clearly visible in polls of Taiwanese attitudes toward unification), but that died a horrible screaming death in 2019-20 when Xi did his little Darth Vader stunt to Hong Kong. So they have the motive to try to force the issue, and they have the opportunity with the USA reeling from the CW and this election being predictably a mess a long time in advance; why wouldn't we expect them to be quietly preparing? They could still definitely call "no-go", but we live in Interesting Times.

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