RenOS
Real libertarians LIKE being outsourced
10mo ago
I'd also be quite interested. From my own impression at least, "old" birthrates are predictive of "new" birthrates, but directionally not absolutely. My parents were 4 siblings and 7 siblings, respectively, my grandparents afaik also had 6+ siblings for the most part, and my cousins usually were around 3 siblings. These cousins now also seem to mostly have 2-3 kids, with very few childless. So while there is a clear downward-pointing arrow, at any time point we're consistently above the average. At the same time, my childless acquaintances seem to primarily come from academic families that rarely had more than 2 children even in the past. All with considerable variance of course, so I'm open to the possibility that this predictivness is quite weak.
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Notes -
I'd also be quite interested. From my own impression at least, "old" birthrates are predictive of "new" birthrates, but directionally not absolutely. My parents were 4 siblings and 7 siblings, respectively, my grandparents afaik also had 6+ siblings for the most part, and my cousins usually were around 3 siblings. These cousins now also seem to mostly have 2-3 kids, with very few childless. So while there is a clear downward-pointing arrow, at any time point we're consistently above the average. At the same time, my childless acquaintances seem to primarily come from academic families that rarely had more than 2 children even in the past. All with considerable variance of course, so I'm open to the possibility that this predictivness is quite weak.
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