RenOS
Real libertarians LIKE being outsourced
10mo ago
Dunno, I really hate relying on technology that doesn't actually yet exist. I agree that it seems likely enough, but fusion or hydrogen or ... also seemed likely to revolutionize society at different time points. Computers and the internet, for example, were one of the revolutions that DID pan out, but I'm still undecided whether that revolution was really so net-positive. Any gain in efficiency seems to have been more than swallowed by cheaper and more accessible distracting entertainment. I wouldn't be particularly surprised if for one reason or another AI-guided robots in particular just stubbornly refuse to become economically efficient for many tasks. I'd also not be surprised if LLMs turn out to be extremely good at entertainment-related activities - it arguably already is - while its helpfulness for practical purposes is good enough to be widely used, but never reaches a point where it can outright take over critical productive jobs.
Even worse, assuming it should eventually pan out, we still need to get through the intermediate time. Germany doesn't have asian levels of terrible birth rates and also has a decent level of "good" immigration from eastern europe and other places that can paper over some difficulties, but the crunch as the boomers are retiring is quite noticeable. Though admittedly I think some of this is self-inflicted - the lack of teachers, for example, would be almost trivial to solve by better conditions for "Quereinsteiger".
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Notes -
Dunno, I really hate relying on technology that doesn't actually yet exist. I agree that it seems likely enough, but fusion or hydrogen or ... also seemed likely to revolutionize society at different time points. Computers and the internet, for example, were one of the revolutions that DID pan out, but I'm still undecided whether that revolution was really so net-positive. Any gain in efficiency seems to have been more than swallowed by cheaper and more accessible distracting entertainment. I wouldn't be particularly surprised if for one reason or another AI-guided robots in particular just stubbornly refuse to become economically efficient for many tasks. I'd also not be surprised if LLMs turn out to be extremely good at entertainment-related activities - it arguably already is - while its helpfulness for practical purposes is good enough to be widely used, but never reaches a point where it can outright take over critical productive jobs.
Even worse, assuming it should eventually pan out, we still need to get through the intermediate time. Germany doesn't have asian levels of terrible birth rates and also has a decent level of "good" immigration from eastern europe and other places that can paper over some difficulties, but the crunch as the boomers are retiring is quite noticeable. Though admittedly I think some of this is self-inflicted - the lack of teachers, for example, would be almost trivial to solve by better conditions for "Quereinsteiger".
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