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You are using reductive and simplistic weakman arguments, though I can't say no one has ever expressed that. But I would say the consensus view here is that trans women may experience some reduction in physical ability due to HRT, but the available evidence strongly suggests that while it puts them at a disadvantage compared to men, they still have a significant advantage over women. Furthermore, not all sports (especially amateur leagues) even require HRT or any kind of physical transition. So no, people are not, in general, claiming "Trans women will win every competition ever." They are claiming that trans women vs. women is not fair competition in the same way (though perhaps not to exactly the same degree) that men vs. women is not fair competition.
... How would we demonstrate that, since the choices in the top 3 are "trans woman" or "cis woman"? If there is 1 trans woman competing against, say, 499 women, and she places in the top 3, the other two would be women. Maybe what you mean is that we'd have to have a large number of competitions in which a tiny percentage of trans women consistently score higher than an average distribution would predict? I.e., if in every competition of 499 women vs. 1 trans woman, the trans woman should average 250th place but instead averages 3rd place, that would be pretty significant, yes? But how many competitions would that have to happen in to convince you? How many competitions can we get with trans women in them, and would you consider winning 3rd place in frisbee soccer and winning 3rd place in cycling comparable?
And I am asking what you would consider convincing, since you seem to have reasons why all the evidence in existence currently isn't sufficient. I am pretty sure we don't have a database of 1000 athletic competitions with trans women competing in them and how well they placed. That would be convenient for statistical analysis, sure, but barring that, why does empirical evidence hold no weight whatsoever with you? Why all the biological studies presented to you hold no weight?
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