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PaperclipPerfector  10mo ago (text post)   1761 thread views

Transnational Thursday for January 4, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Venezuela

Britain has now sent a warship to the Guyanese coast for “routine purposes” and to “conduct training drills,” but realistically to protect them from potential invasion. Venezuela meanwhile has started hosting military drills of over 5000 soldiers, possibly implying that the whole annexing-Guyana thing wasn’t just to get the people going. Brazil has been sweating nervously the whole time, caught nervously between their friendships with both countries.

I maintain that likely no conflict will really erupt. The territory in Guyana right over the Venezuelan border is so rugged and jungle-y that direct invasion is hard, and Brazil isn’t going to let Venezuela move troops through its territory. Still, it’s unfortunate seeing things seemingly escalate.

In other remarkable news País reports that that Maduro himself has been unclear on whether he will run in the upcoming election or pick a different candidate instead. His popularity is sub 20% (why don’t they just fake these numbers?) and overwhelmingly the country wants something different. Oil exports have actually risen significantly, by as much as 12% since sanctions were eased, but the economy is still wrecked and the opposition candidate Machado apparently dominates in polls with a projected 70%+ of the vote. It’s hard to imagine him stepping down voluntarily; we’ll see. Possible alternatives include Maduro’s VP, the head of parliament, and the governors of Carabobo and Miranda states.

Venezuela meanwhile has started hosting military drills of over 5000 soldiers, possibly implying that the whole annexing-Guyana thing wasn’t just to get the people going.

If there’s any lesson to learn from the Ukraine war, it’s that 5000 soldiers in a war between second world countries isn’t enough to secure a football field. This raises my estimates of it being saber rattling significantly.

If it was 500,000 troops I’d be worried, but I don’t think even Maduro is dumb enough to try anything with less than that.

In fairness it’s more than double Guyana’s whole military, but agreed it likely won’t turn into anything real.

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