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Culture War Roundup for the week of January 1, 2024

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At least I don't think you'll get the same amount of trans people if it's no longer explicitly glamorized, if schools are not allowed to hide kids going trans from their parents, if doctors don't get to do "gender affirming care" by default, and threaten the family with suicide risk, if they object, etc.

That's probably true, but I'm not sure that looks much different to trans activists from the social conservative perspective just winning, and perhaps more critically I think you're still going to have a million+ trans or post-trans people going around, and unless they're sold against the concept, they're going to have alternative means for bringing matters forward socially. Whatever they do might still be such that the next generation of trans people is smaller, and maybe that loops back on itself, but you're looking at decades if not the better part of a century.

Are you coming from the transmed "body dysmorphia" approach? The "gender identity" one? Do you think transition is about relieving distress, or is it more a question of self-expression and people having the right to modify their body as they please?

My relevant underlying axiom is that it is there must be limits to what governments can do to protect people from themselves, so probably closer to self-expression or right-to-modify, though the principle applies far broader than just body modification -- it's why I'm very skeptical of vape bans, soft drink size controls, or of the Australian arguments for gun control, with the extreme being matters like 'the FDA oppressed Stalking Cat'. Many of these things might be stupid things to do (especially for Stalking Cat and the vapers), but that's their choice to make.

This principal isn't unlimited, in the sense that we reasonably restrict selling cigarettes to children or advertising ethylene glycol as a low-calorie sweetener, and there are some edges cases with trans stuff. But even to the extent I can be persuaded on the edge cases that were parallels, it's hard to present a fair or honest engagement. Bringing up false-advertising-like claims inevitably invites discussion about what extent any given procedure or policy has benefits. I've even been persuaded on a few matters! While the data for damage from short-term use of puberty blockers on bone density isn't anywhere near as strong as trans skeptics think, early-initiated long-term use of those blockers probably has some harms for sexual development in adulthood for both continuing trans and desisters that is neither being disclosed nor documented properly, for example, and in ways I'd honestly expected to have been better hammered out and wasn't.

But short of convincing evidence that adult trans people are going to keel over by the cartloads with the equivalent of the asbestos-to-mesothelioma pipeline, though, any debate on this pretty quickly turns to "sucks to be them, gotta update that documentation" or "okay, guess we should wait mid-to-late teens". Which is going to seem like a really weird goalpost-moving to someone holding this position, rather than an update-on-evidence, in addition to just coming across ghoulish when someone's just finishing talking up how a victim is now horribly dysphoric/has had their entire romantic life upended/couldn't trust that bungee jumping service.

That said, I don't think my principles are common, here. Not only are the average trans activist likely motivated by something different, in many circumstances they're actively drive toward widespread government controls (not just on this topic, such as with bans on stupid talk-only conversion therapy, but also on a wide variety of others). But if principles only mattered when they helped people you agreed with, or agreed with them, they're not principles at all.

I think that dysphoria and gender identity are more useful frameworks for understanding what motivations trans groups, rather than what would change the minds or arguments of trans activists or the median person. Indeed, I don't think they are, or should be, particularly persuasive to other people even presuming that they were true: in addition to the self-hostage-taking that social conservatives often bring up, we pretty clearly don't recognize mass suicides of other groups as cause for actions along the beliefs of those groups. But they're neither what makes the policy for within the view of trans people, nor are they what would need to be different for their advocates and activists to change their minds rather than their arguments.

Thanks for the elaborate response, I feel a bit bad now since I don't seem to have too much to say about it. It does make me wonder why you think your view is so rare here, because I don't see much of anything that I'd disagree with here. There might be something around the validity of dysphoria - I'll be the first to confess I don't grok it at all, be it personally or in the abstract - but it doesn't seem to be the cornerstone for your views on the matter, nor is it for mine. I can understand (though it frustrates me) how people immediately jump to "do you want to ban adults from making medical decisions for themselves?" upon seeing my vehement disagreement with trans activists, but I don't think this is what the disagreement is about. Everything you said the limits of the government to protect people from themselves is, in my case, preaching to the choir.

That's probably true, but I'm not sure that looks much different to trans activists from the social conservative perspective just winning, and perhaps more critically I think you're still going to have a million+ trans or post-trans people going around, and unless they're sold against the concept, they're going to have alternative means for bringing matters forward socially.

This does seem to hit the nail on the head as to why we're in such a pickle. I don't even care about alternative means of bringing the matters forward socially, as long as they're not underhanded (using the public school system to sell the concept to kids, behind the parents' back being one extreme example). But if what I consider to be setting up some basic rules of engagement is already defined to be a lose condition by the pro-trans side, well... where can we go from there?