This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
I don’t think the war is actually winnable in any near future. And this brings up a lot of potential problems.
First of all, we’re draining resources fighting this war by proxy. Not just the weapons, but fuel, and aid. We don’t have infinite oil reserves to keep Russian oil off the market for the next ten years. Russian and Ukrainian grain was very important to stabilize grain prices globally, that’s not happening because Russia is embargoed and Ukraine is too busy fighting to plant. We can probably do it for a couple of years, but once we get to the place of fighting by proxy for ten years, these kinds of problems are going to get worse.
Second, it’s a distraction from other problems. China wants Taiwan. And if we’re distracted by Ukraine, taking Taiwan becomes much easier. I don’t see us trying to have a two front proxy war with both China and Russia. We don’t have the weapons or materials to support both.
Third, I don’t think we can keep interest on the home front for continuing to support Ukraine with billions a year.
Good news- the Western oil sanctions are not intended to keep Russian oil off the global market, nor do they.
Rather, the Western oil sanctions are intended to undercut Russian profit margins, which is why Russia spent much of the last year functionally subsidizing lower energy prices by selling greater volumes at the lower prices.
Russia's gain (and fertilizer) is not embargoed on the global market.
Good if bitter news on this- the global food situation will get better, not worse, as the Ukrainian war goes on, as global producers have more time to adopt to alternative fertilizer sources, which was the most significant loss. The supply chain loss has already occured in irreversible fashions do the destruction of relevant parts of the Ukrainian fertilizer industry that were located in the industrial east in the opening phases. The fertilizer-chain disruption costs are already built in, and would not revert even if the war ended before the next planting season.
Add to it the loss of the Pakistani rice crops in Asia from last year's flooding, and the food-supply disruption has already occured, while the rebalancing is already starting and will increase over time.
Good news again- the weapons and material from any potential Ukraine patron are fundamentally different from those that might be used to support Taiwan, by virtue that Ukraine is a conventional ground war and Taiwan is a naval war.
If China is in range of the sort of ground combat systems being provided to Ukraine, it has already achieved the localized naval superiority to manage a landing of its invasion force, and thus has the naval capacity to keep the arms shipments of land-systems from reaching Taiwan to affect the conflict.
Compared to routine expenditures by the west without political pushback, public disinterest is a reason why Ukrainian aid will continue, not a reason it will falter.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link