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Culture War Roundup for the week of December 11, 2023

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The charges are real. They are being tried in a courtroom with very real consequences if Trump is convicted. That’s not a fake charge. They are politically motivated charges, and I’ll agree this is pretty obvious.

I think conviction is less obvious as you will likely have trouble seating a jury unbiased enough to not instantly lose on appeal. Even then I would give at least a 30% on a hung jury and maybe 15% on a mistrial due to jury misconduct (my best guess Isa juror getting caught writing a book while serving on the jury, which happened during the OJ Simpson trial), which means that you might not get a conviction until next year.

The interesting case to me is states removing Trump from the ballot in absence of a conviction. I don’t think there’s actually a precedent for doing that even at local levels, and Trump is not only a mainstream candidate for president (and the presumptive GOP nominee), but polling even to slightly ahead of Biden. If Trump is removed, that would be pretty clear official interference.

The charges are real

I know that this is going to come across as mean/uncharitable but define "real" because I think that this question of is really one of the core points of disagreement between Right and Left.

I mean that the state thinks it has enough evidence that he did what they’re accusing him of that it’s worth bring to a jury trial. And that if convicted he goes to a real prison.

I think the prosecution is politically motivated and if he were anyone else he would never have been charged with these crimes because they’re pretty common in the political class.

I think conviction is less obvious as you will likely have trouble seating a jury unbiased enough to not instantly lose on appeal.

I think you underestimate how "game-able" jury selection is. And even if it's straightforwardly certain to be overturned on appeal, I again point to Ted Stevens — just secure conviction before the election, but make sure the overturning on appeal only comes after the election.

If Trump is removed, that would be pretty clear official interference.

According to whom? That is to say, who has the legal authority to rule what is or isn't "official interference"? And even if they do rule so, what remedy is available after the fact?