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PaperclipPerfector  11mo ago (text post)   27234 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of December 11, 2023

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Lockdowns aren't on the pareto frontier of policy options for even diseases significantly deadlier than covid imo, just because rapid development and distribution of technological solutions is possible, but ... covid killed one million people in the united states. Yes, mostly old people, but we're talking about protecting old people here. No reason to pretend otherwise.

Speaking of government policy, I wonder how many lives were lost because we couldn't conduct challenge trials on COVID? It was almost the ideal case - a disease with a rapidly-developed, experimental new vaccine and a large cohort of people (anyone under 40) for which it wasn't threatening. If we were a serious society - genuinely trying to optimize lives saved, rather than performatively closing churches and masking toddlers - I wonder how early we could have rolled out RNA vaccines for the elderly?

Yeah, I absolutely agree with that. We could've also done challenge trials on masks, different types of masks, different ways of instructing people how to use masks, ultraviolet sterilization, etc. And probably at least half of covid deaths could've been prevented with the level competence that's present in the best SV companies.

Rather more than half, given that 1st-world Asian countries did in fact prevent 80-90% of the deaths relative to a US baseline, and "the best SV companies" are presumably claiming to be more competent than Taiwanese bureaucrats (are they? Good question, and I don't know the answer). In terms of the combined cost of COVID mortality and morbidity and of unnecessary and ineffective preventative measures, the US was shockingly bad (and the UK was almost as bad - the only thing we got right was the vaccine rollout).

Preventing 1/2 the US deaths isn't the level of competence of the best SV companies, it's the level of competence of a slightly-above-average first world government bureaucracy.

Fair. Sometimes I make claims much weaker than my actual beliefs if they're enough to prove my point. I'm pretty sure a 'competent country' could have prevented 90%+ of covid deaths with no behavioral changes whatsoever other than minor things like masks, better ventilation, uv sterilization, and vaccines. But those asian countries still had significant behavioral changes that I'm arguing are unnecessary, even if less than here." And the standard for competence is somewhat high

There is a mountain of evidence masks did nothing.

Also Sweden looks great as well.

Maybe the solution to doing well with covid is “don’t have a bunch of fat old people”

There is a mountain of evidence masks did nothing.

Yes, I'm implying the competent country would design masks that worked.

Maybe the solution to doing well with covid is “don’t have a bunch of fat old people”

I did a whole thing about this a year or so ago, obesity is much much less of a risk factor than age. Old and thin people still died a lot, 20 year old fat people didn't.

Yes, I'm implying the competent country would design masks that worked.

They are already designed, and look like a full-face respirator with positive air pressure supplied through a filter -- common industrial supply, but I think you need a country that was a bit more than 'competent' to get people to wear them.

... and wasn't a full-face powered respirator, yes

The reason masks don't work is that you can't really breathe that great when wearing something that is both well sealed and a fine enough filter to catch viruses, so some form of PAP is the only real option. (normal half-face cartridge respirators would probably have at least some benefit, but you won't get people to wear those all the time either -- and the reason they aren't approved for high-stakes use around immediately toxic substances is that you can't really tell how well they are sealing minute-by-minute, so you are liable to get a dose before you realize that it's shifted on your face or whatever)

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Noticed I didn’t say fat or old people but fat old people.

I think a similar number of thin old people would've died. Especially since being thin makes them live longer, so they're older, they have to die eventually.

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