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I think I mostly agree. The chance of absolute doom is high but not over 50%, the chance of ‘moderate doom’ is almost zero, the chance of utopia is at least 40%, in the medium term for the West but also for almost everyone else, because post-scarcity scales costs down so fast it’ll be simple charity.
And I won’t deny there’s a spiritual element to it. Man makes God, again and again and again, until he does it for real. Our history as a species is a yearning for this moment, the creation of something greater than ourselves by our own hands. The same natural beauty in the stars, in staring into fire, in a teeming coral reef, the majesty of creation, that out of the sludge and rock and nothing something unfathomably complex came to exist. And I hopefully get to see it.
I have countless ancestors who were born, lived, reproduced and died in less time than we’ve been alive, people likely as intelligent as me, who looked at themselves and the world around them and spent their lives wondering about things that are taught in second grade science. I can take 40% odds at heaven on earth in my lifetime. At worst, it’s better to see the end of the story than be left wondering.
I’m a bit more doomed simply because the parts of society where AI is going to be first used are the ones where empathy of any sort are not valued. CEOs will use it to increase profits, or the military will use it to win wars. And they will do so with little regard to the effect that their decisions have on humanity.
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If I had been born in any period of time before, say, 1950, I would have to resign myself to growing old and dying in the decrepit state that implies. Maybe I'd have been one of the futurists around then who fervently hoped it would have happened sooner, but gestures outside the window, few can deny it's all accelerating.
Given that I think we have a solid shot of cracking aging even in the absence of AGI, I'd still elect to be born roughly when I did, and at least AGI deals with at least one of "becoming old" and "dying of old age", heh.
Hmm.. I think I would prefer to either be a decade older or younger. In the former case, I'd have experienced more of what can be described as core milestones like raising a family and becoming established in my profession (which could still happen! I intend to have kids even if they could potentially die very young, I would value even a short period of existence over not being born myself, and besides, if they do die, I expect it to be quick and painless, and if not, I trust in my ability to make it so..), or for the latter, I could resign myself to being entirely helpless, as opposed to having just enough agency to worry my butthole off.
The world has never been more interesting, there are so many things to do and see, the ultimate slap in the face of the pessimists is the world not giving a fuck and getting better, though we'll see who has the last laugh.
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