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Case in point.
He just polled today at 17%, his average is 16%, we're clearly not dealing with the same fact pattern
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden_vs_kennedy_vs_west-8289.html
That's less than Perot who got zero electoral votes and was also irrelevant to the 1992 presidential election.
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His popularity is interesting, but we've all been on this ride (of third party Presidential candidacies) before, and it doesn't end well. The system isn't structured for it. At best, all they accomplish is to take votes away from the main party candidate that's closest to their views, thus ensuring that the one further from their views wins. See Ross Perot. If you want to seriously argue for it, you need a reason why this time might be different.
The interesting thing about RFK i guess is that both other candidates seem about equally far from his views; kind of different axes but not really.
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And what tends to happen to third party candidates when the vote actually happens? They collapse. The next president will, unless either of them die, be Trump or Biden. Discussing the spoiler effect might be interesting, but that’s not a ‘three horse race’, it’s a two horse race with some not-uncommon (see Perot/Bush) dynamics.
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