Posting this a day early because I won’t be around tomorrow.
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Notes -
It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 5 days. Number one, Israel expects Hamas to violate the the ceasefire, per usual. Of course this suggests a false flag attack as well, where Israel stages a pretext for a retaliatory response. I expect that Hamas accepts the cease-fire posture at the top, but there may be provocations and skirmishes at low levels originating on both sides. I doubt we will get to the first 5 days without a major violation or conflict.
Prediction: 5 day ceasefire is honored by both sides, as judged by lack of hostilities or contention by the end of the period: 50%
This includes a successful hostage exchange. I expect there to be minor quibbles and contention. But we should know, broadly and deeply, whether each side is reasonably satisfied.
If the first 5 days go acceptably for both sides, the next 5 are likely to as well.
Prediction: 10 days of ceasefire and hostage exchanges are "successful" (not without hurdles and reversals): 10%
Again, are both sides reasonably satisfied?
Expecting a false flag attack by Israel seems to me unusually uncharitable to Israeli motives. Israel wants as many hostages released as possible. That is one of two overarching goals of the war, and the only reason for it to agree to a temporary ceasefire in the first place. Staging a false flag attack and retaliating based on it would end the hostage exchange.
If the other is "no more hostages taken in the future", successful exchanges go against it, I believe.
True, if Israel wanted to reduce hostage-taking to almost zero it would announce that there will be no more hostage deals ever under any circumstances and use only military means to rescue the hostages, even if that might endanger some of the current hostages. It's possible that that would reduce the number of hostages at risk in the long run, even if it would greatly endanger the current hostages. It's not possible politically though, since the plight of the current hostages is a huge political issue that the Israeli electorate cares very deeply about.
The other overarching goal is the elimination of Hamas and its ability to rule in the Gaza Strip.
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