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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   27147 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 20, 2023

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I agree that Yud leans heavily on some unrealistic premises, but overall I think he gets big points for being one of the few people really excited / worried about the eventual power of AI at the time, and laying out explicit cases or scenarios rather than just handwaving.

I agree that bay area rationalists can be a little messianic and culty, though I think it's about par for the course for young people away from home. At least you can talk about it with them.

I also think that most x-risks come simply from being outcompeted. A big thing that Yud got right is that it doesn't matter if the AI is universalist or selfish or whatever, it will still eventually try to gather power, since power-gathering agents are one of the only stable equilibria. You might be right that we won't have to worry about deontological AI, but people will be incentivized to build AIs that can effectively power-seek (ostensibly) on their behalf.

I agree that Yud leans heavily on some unrealistic premises, but overall I think he gets big points for being one of the few people really excited / worried about the eventual power of AI at the time, and laying out explicit cases or scenarios rather than just handwaving.

Can't say I followed Yud terribly closely, but my impression of him and the entire EA / X-risk sphere is the complete opposite. Their analysis of technological unemployment was extremely handwavy, and their doom scenarios unnecessarily fanciful, when we can just extrapolate from things that are already happening.

I agree, but I also still see most people steadfastly refuse to extrapolate from things that are already happening. For a while, fanciful doom scenarios were all we had as an alternative to "end of history, everything will be fine" from even otherwise serious people.

It is a massive jump between «power-seeking is an emergent property of intelligence» and «arranging stuff so that your goals are reachable cheaper is rewarded in competitive conditions». Though some see it as the same thing.

I agree it's kind of a matter of degree. But I also think we already have so much power-seeking around that any non-power-seeking AI will quickly be turned to that end.

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