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ZorbaTHut  2yr ago (text post)   35549 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 19, 2022

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Gonna register a prediction that nothing big will come of the gas price hikes this Winter in Europe. Maybe some sporadic protests that eventually fizzle out but little more. EU storage facilities are nearly full, and gas/electricity prices are actually coming down at the moment due to windfall taxes being imposed on the producers and changing the mechanism through which electricity prices are set with any monies raised being used to subsidise households. Plus, riots don't really happen in winter time especially in conditions like this: if it gets really really cold the general population will be too frozen to do anything.

Ukraine had revolution of dignity and Euromaidan in winters, both succeed, as you see. (2003/2004 and 2013/2014)

My expectation is that if there will be protests, they won't be about "gas is expensive" but about "we are now unemployed because our industries relied on cheap consistent natural gas input". This is already coming pretty clearly: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-producer-prices-post-record-jump-august-2022-09-20/

and gas/electricity prices are actually coming down at the moment due to windfall taxes being imposed on the producers and changing the mechanism through which electricity prices are set with any monies raised being used to subsidise households.

This seems to be a case of mistaking the map (price) for the territory (supply). Distorting prices downward via government edict is going to result in overconsumption and increase the risk of shortages.

Riots don't happen in winter...

Jan 6th protestors and Canadian truckers would like to like to know your location... (and the Canadian truckers did it in a real winter, -40 Siberian conditions on the parries at the coutes blockade... and -20 at the Ottawa protest they drove 4000km to get to)

Even ignoring that, I think the calculus for winter riots changes if everyone is cold at home.

Plus, riots don't really happen in winter time especially in conditions like this: if it gets really really cold the general population will be too frozen to do anything.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_convoy_protest

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Ottawa#Climate

Plus, riots don't really happen in winter time especially in conditions like this: if it gets really really cold the general population will be too frozen to do anything.

One notable (and relevant) exception to this being Euromaidan, which took place between November and February.

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