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Secular Jews have 70% intermarriage rates, Orthodox are more conservative politically. Realignment is already happening, but it will take a while for it to show up in polling data. The main thing that affects how Jewish populations vote is religious conservatism, not really secular politics (even zionism). British Jews are more Orthodox than American Jews and the majority vote Tory, in recent years this was construed as a backlash against Corbyn's pro-Palestinian sentiment, but this was incorrect. In 2015, before Corbyn and when the Labour party literally had a Jewish candidate for PM, polling suggested only 22% of British Jews would vote Labour, 69% planned to vote Tory. 65% of British Jews are at least nominally Orthodox, perhaps 15-20% (if that) of American Jews are.
As the American Jewish population becomes more Orthodox political alignment will slowly switch.
“become more orthodox” -> does this mean Jewish population goes up or down? I assume Orthodox Jews have more kids, but I assume way less than the super Orthodox ones in Brooklyn?
You need to define the term "Jewish population" for this question to make sense because the parent relies on an intermarriage rate.
People with Jewish ancestry? Probably up. People with Jewish ancestry >50%? Probably down. People who identify as Jews? Also probably down, unless it becomes trendy. That's the short term anyways, long term, the numbers could increase with the birth rates that the orthodox have.
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Estimates of the US Jewish population vary significantly because of the high rates of intermarriage and large non-observant population. In the long term I’d guess the population would rise. Modern Orthodox have fewer children than Chareidim (Ultra-Orthodox), but often still well above replacement.
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