naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
(text post)
30318 thread views
Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
This same diatribe has been written every year for the last 70 years. We’ve been in a unipolar world for about 30 years (before that it was still America first for 40 years). We’ve had Israeli Wars before it’s not a new thing. We’ve had oil embargo’s at a time when the US was dependent on importing energy. We’ve had 2 afghan wars. We’ve had Vietnam. We’ve had the Cuban missile crisis. We’ve had third world countries playing a bit of both sides.
Only one thing has begun to change and that’s the rise of China.
The fall of dollar hegemony has been on Bloomberg once a month from some goldbug every month for decades.
I see big geopolitical risks in the next few decades. There is the arrangement the west makes with China on issues. And there is the risks of the west being eaten internally by immigration. A bigger issue for those in Europe who are going to have to deal with Africas population boom and a potential tsunami of immigrant invaders of which they face a real risks of being replaced.
I’ve got a neat little book on my shelf titled “The Future of Conflict in the 1980s”. It was written at the dawn of the Reagan administration. Yes, it basically has the same concerns as @forestboomer.
New areas of friction. New conflicts over energy resources and military basing. The South China Sea was of interest, albeit for different reasons than today. Lots of emphasis on asymmetrical fights, brush wars, the strategy for US interventionism in a changing world.
I’ll have to see about writing it up one of these days.
I would be curious if the Roman Empire had people talking about its imminent collapse constantly. They probably did.
I’ve probably read 50k of the end are near articles. Someday I will be wrong discounting them. It’s most likely not tomorrow. Someone else will look like a genius just like Nouriel Roubini did once. But the genius probably wasn’t a genius and it was just dumb luck.
This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a
court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to
optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.
The weekly Culture War threads host the most
controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are
appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy;
if in doubt, post!
Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts.
You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.
Why are you called The Motte?
A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently,
it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey",
originally identified by
philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial
but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens
this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for
the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired
propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."
On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.
New post guidelines
If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it.
A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts
such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a
submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).
Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or
significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
This same diatribe has been written every year for the last 70 years. We’ve been in a unipolar world for about 30 years (before that it was still America first for 40 years). We’ve had Israeli Wars before it’s not a new thing. We’ve had oil embargo’s at a time when the US was dependent on importing energy. We’ve had 2 afghan wars. We’ve had Vietnam. We’ve had the Cuban missile crisis. We’ve had third world countries playing a bit of both sides.
Only one thing has begun to change and that’s the rise of China.
The fall of dollar hegemony has been on Bloomberg once a month from some goldbug every month for decades.
I see big geopolitical risks in the next few decades. There is the arrangement the west makes with China on issues. And there is the risks of the west being eaten internally by immigration. A bigger issue for those in Europe who are going to have to deal with Africas population boom and a potential tsunami of immigrant invaders of which they face a real risks of being replaced.
I’ve got a neat little book on my shelf titled “The Future of Conflict in the 1980s”. It was written at the dawn of the Reagan administration. Yes, it basically has the same concerns as @forestboomer.
New areas of friction. New conflicts over energy resources and military basing. The South China Sea was of interest, albeit for different reasons than today. Lots of emphasis on asymmetrical fights, brush wars, the strategy for US interventionism in a changing world.
I’ll have to see about writing it up one of these days.
Yes agree.
I would be curious if the Roman Empire had people talking about its imminent collapse constantly. They probably did.
I’ve probably read 50k of the end are near articles. Someday I will be wrong discounting them. It’s most likely not tomorrow. Someone else will look like a genius just like Nouriel Roubini did once. But the genius probably wasn’t a genius and it was just dumb luck.
Early Christians were pretty insistent about the imminence of the end times.
Here's a fun wiki article, too.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link