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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   30377 thread views

Israel-Gaza Megathread #2

This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.

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So they fire 6-10,000 missiles and kill only 3-4000 Gazans in surgical strikes, many of whom may well be actual Hamas fighters.

Considering the counterfactual...

Over 12,000 Hamas rockets have been fired in the past 15 years, killing a total of 33 Israelis. What are the chances that a single "malfunctioning" Hamas rocket killed 800+ people? It happened to fall on a weapons cache? What are the chances of that?

It seems more likely this is the case of a weapon working extremely effectively as it was engineered. That means the two most likely possibilities are a Hamas false flag or Israeli strike... Betting markets seem to buy into the Israeli story, I can't wrap my mind around the unlikelihood of a rocket with such a poor mortality track record malfunctioning and then hitting what was possibly the most vulnerable space in Northern Gaza...

Presumably a rocket just fired is still full of fuel. The aftermath pictures don't show much blast damage, instead it burned out.

What are the chances that a single "malfunctioning" Hamas rocket killed 800+ people?

what are the chances that Hamas is lying that 800+ people were killed by this strike?

Yeah, the blast zone doesn't look large enough for hundreds of casualties.

The only reason Israeli casualties are so low is the Iron Dome, which obviously doesn’t defend Gaza, though.

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