naraburns nihil supernum
11mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
none of these movements have been eliminated once and for all
Looking outside Muslim communities, Tamil terror in Sri Lanka was successfully eradicated through incredible violence. Unfortunately, this article might be right. Because the Sinhalese killed all the next-of-kin of the LTTE leadership. Left no room for revenge.
alternatives that have legitimacy within the societies from which these young men emerge.
This is why the rapid liberalization of Saudi society is so important. Iran can try as much as it likes, but Sunnis will always bear resentment towards them as Shias. If Mecca/Medina becomes westernized, then these men will finally have internal leaders with legitimacy who can steer these young men away.
humiliated young men
El salvador has managed to lock up 100k men almost overnight. So it can be done. It seems like the most achievable peaceful resolution to this war. Kill the terrorists and imprison all young and likely suspects. Let the absolute gravy-train of aid flow into restoring society for women and young children. Employ all older men with families in hard labor towards rebuilding Gaza on the south side of the strip. Ideally on a patch of land in west bank, but that's unlikely to work.
You can release the once angry youth back into society once peace has been restored over 20 years or so. Once stable society exists and the majority has known an improving life for the last couple of decades, the residents lose the appetite for violence. Most non-murderous Tamil, Sikh and Naga insurgents in India were happy to integrate into India when it became clear that they can still wield local power in a democracy without violence. But maybe Islam draws out a different kind of anger.
An ugly solution, but somehow still sounds better than all the other alternatives.
Kill the terrorists and imprison all young and likely suspects. … Employ all older men with families in hard labor towards rebuilding Gaza on the south side of the strip.
You understand that this “peaceful resolution” is just isomorphic to war, right?
If you want to put all the young men in prison, then someone has to go round them up. By force.
Obviously, Hamas wouldn’t agree to this voluntarily.
A peaceful resolution is more so the "least violent" resolution than one that has no deaths. Mine is a fairly violent suggestion .... but still less violent than all the other options on the table. A temporary ceasefire might delay the violence, but it can't be called a resolution.
El salvador has managed to lock up 100k men almost overnight. So it can be done.
El Salvador was still (somehow) a democracy dealing with an internal problem of gangsters that honestly seem to have just gotten too big for their britches. They still had enough of a military advantage to handle it, feckless leadership apparently just had to learn to stop trying to pay them off because they were emboldened to keep escalating. Once they took action they actually had some legitimacy with the rest of the populace to enforce their rule.
I'm unsure if Mexico could honestly do the same now, with its more powerful cartels.
Let alone Israel which is not facing gangsters who were slowly transitioning into terrorism encouraged by governments paying the Danegeld but an active and prepared pseudo-sovereign terrorist group (who're opposed to identifying tattoos on principle, unlike LatAm sociopaths) holding sway over an entire region with in-built religious and historical reasons to hate Israelis. Hard to see where the legitimacy will come from here.
I don't think the limiting factor is the strength of Mexico's Military (watch cartel vs Army footage, the cartels get massacred every time, that one time CJNG took down a helicopter has been mythologized). In Mexico's case the real problem is just how bloody corrupt the government is on aggregate. If Mexico had someone unshakeable with a one-track mind like Bukeles, I'm sure they could probably achieve the same outcome.
The first time I became aware someone was corrupt was watching a general in the Mexican army being interviewed by Nightline or Newshour or some show. I was maybe 13 and I recall him telling the interviewer about how he had this many men and they were covering that many kilometers searching for the other cartel smugglers...
"Sir," the reporter interrupted, "How many have you caught?"
Ten seconds of dead silence, and the look on the general's face that made it clear catching people was not part of his plans--and that's the day I realized how the world worked.
I heard the same rant from every American General in command of the Afghanistan invasion and occupation for decades, though usually before a congress tame enough not to ask any awkward questions.
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Notes -
Looking outside Muslim communities, Tamil terror in Sri Lanka was successfully eradicated through incredible violence. Unfortunately, this article might be right. Because the Sinhalese killed all the next-of-kin of the LTTE leadership. Left no room for revenge.
This is why the rapid liberalization of Saudi society is so important. Iran can try as much as it likes, but Sunnis will always bear resentment towards them as Shias. If Mecca/Medina becomes westernized, then these men will finally have internal leaders with legitimacy who can steer these young men away.
El salvador has managed to lock up 100k men almost overnight. So it can be done. It seems like the most achievable peaceful resolution to this war. Kill the terrorists and imprison all young and likely suspects. Let the absolute gravy-train of aid flow into restoring society for women and young children. Employ all older men with families in hard labor towards rebuilding Gaza on the south side of the strip. Ideally on a patch of land in west bank, but that's unlikely to work.
You can release the once angry youth back into society once peace has been restored over 20 years or so. Once stable society exists and the majority has known an improving life for the last couple of decades, the residents lose the appetite for violence. Most non-murderous Tamil, Sikh and Naga insurgents in India were happy to integrate into India when it became clear that they can still wield local power in a democracy without violence. But maybe Islam draws out a different kind of anger.
An ugly solution, but somehow still sounds better than all the other alternatives.
Also, how the British managed to stamp out the Mau Mau in Kenya.
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You understand that this “peaceful resolution” is just isomorphic to war, right?
If you want to put all the young men in prison, then someone has to go round them up. By force.
Obviously, Hamas wouldn’t agree to this voluntarily.
Yep, fully agree.
A peaceful resolution is more so the "least violent" resolution than one that has no deaths. Mine is a fairly violent suggestion .... but still less violent than all the other options on the table. A temporary ceasefire might delay the violence, but it can't be called a resolution.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
El Salvador was still (somehow) a democracy dealing with an internal problem of gangsters that honestly seem to have just gotten too big for their britches. They still had enough of a military advantage to handle it, feckless leadership apparently just had to learn to stop trying to pay them off because they were emboldened to keep escalating. Once they took action they actually had some legitimacy with the rest of the populace to enforce their rule.
I'm unsure if Mexico could honestly do the same now, with its more powerful cartels.
Let alone Israel which is not facing gangsters who were slowly transitioning into terrorism encouraged by governments paying the Danegeld but an active and prepared pseudo-sovereign terrorist group (who're opposed to identifying tattoos on principle, unlike LatAm sociopaths) holding sway over an entire region with in-built religious and historical reasons to hate Israelis. Hard to see where the legitimacy will come from here.
I don't think the limiting factor is the strength of Mexico's Military (watch cartel vs Army footage, the cartels get massacred every time, that one time CJNG took down a helicopter has been mythologized). In Mexico's case the real problem is just how bloody corrupt the government is on aggregate. If Mexico had someone unshakeable with a one-track mind like Bukeles, I'm sure they could probably achieve the same outcome.
The first time I became aware someone was corrupt was watching a general in the Mexican army being interviewed by Nightline or Newshour or some show. I was maybe 13 and I recall him telling the interviewer about how he had this many men and they were covering that many kilometers searching for the other cartel smugglers...
"Sir," the reporter interrupted, "How many have you caught?"
Ten seconds of dead silence, and the look on the general's face that made it clear catching people was not part of his plans--and that's the day I realized how the world worked.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
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Context Copy link
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Context Copy link