naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
I think Israel will do just fine with «if you kill your enemies, you win» logic.
As Netanyahu (easily an intellectual and moral peer to those founders) has said five years ago:
PM Netanyahu: Shimon aspired toward peace but he knew that true peace can be achieved only if our hands strongly grasp defensive weaponry. In the Middle East, and in many parts of the world, there is a simple truth: There is no place for the weak.
The weak crumble, are slaughtered and are erased from history while the strong, for good or for ill, survive. The strong are respected, and alliances are made with the strong, and in the end peace is made with the strong.
There's only one problem with this: Israel is fairly dependent on the outside community for support. They can't afford to turn into a pariah state by ethnically cleansing Palestinians from Gaza.
Here's the solution (if the problem ever presents itself): Diaspora members commit to obstruct hiring for "supporters of Hamas" and nobody makes Israel a pariah state. Indians are already aware of this technique.
Diaspora Jews are neither monolithic enough nor centrally coordinated enough to make this feasible. Palestinians have a nontrivial amount of support in the West which is why Israel hasn't been able to solve the problem despite decades of conflict, and this is showing no likelihood of change anytime soon.
At this point I don't know if you're joking or not.
I am not. Seeing AGP transsexual, BLM-fists, colored-hair, tear-down-patriarchy, immigrants-welcome, religion-sucks, Israel-is-a-colonial-power, Bibi-is-a-fascist Jews in my network absolutely froth at the mouths and clamor for genocide (supported by kind Christian doctors), I do not believe that the Diaspora will need any more coordination on this topic than long-standing Zionist organizations and the collective shaming of dissenters by people who've just lost their relatives (and Jews tend to be acutely aware of their distant cousins and aunts, so there are very very many Jews in mourning now), and their friends, provide. Crucially, I do not believe there is very much capacity and coordination needed to overcome lobbying of Palestinians, or even broadly Muslims.
But we shall see – both how this goes, and what it costs Israel. For now I predict that there won't be genocide (@2rafa, probably referencing the idea of "decimation", tentatively defines it as "200,000 or more Gazan casualties" and I'm inclined to agree, so – there'll be less then that), and there won't be any lasting cost in the West.
I am not. Seeing AGP transsexual, BLM-fists, colored-hair, tear-down-patriarchy, immigrants-welcome, religion-sucks, Israel-is-a-colonial-power, Bibi-is-a-fascist Jews in my network absolutely froth at the mouths and clamor for genocide…
Have to say I really haven’t seen much of this. The biggest frothers are the already hardcore Zionists, often outright conservative aligned even if never Trump. The numerical bulk, at least in my social circles, slightly less extreme, are lawyer and gym owner and dance instructor and and finance types who obviously vote Democrat and maybe had a black square on Instagram in 2020 , but they’re not blue hair AGP ‘Israel is an apartheid state’ types at all. Those mostly posted both side messages, and are now back to the regularly scheduled Palestineposting about Gazan civilians and open air prison etc.
I am not saying they are representative of their group, just that it has reached even that group; and the moral sanction for ethnic cleansing won't be as hard to procure as their usual sympathies suggest.
Diaspora Jews are neither monolithic enough nor centrally coordinated enough to make this feasible.
Except it looks that they are, the storm of doxxing, deplatforming and cancelling everyone showing the slightest sympathy to Hamas is impressive, not even non-binary persons of color are spared this time.
Palestinians have a nontrivial amount of support in the West
Not any more. Peak Palestine moment was probably the Second Intifada, around the time of "Battle of Jenin", this objectively rather minor affair was at the time headline news worldwide and treated like new Stalingrad battle.
The Palestine moment is over, expect Palestinian symbols and sympathizers to be treated like Nazi ones (no, this does not mean being celebrated by Canadian parliament).
The Harvard doxxing truck isn't evidence of much since it was condemned by most people on campus, including the Harvard Hillel. People have been giving Israel a pass due to the warcrimes of Hamas like the decapitated babies, but that'll end in a few news cycles when there's been nothing but story after story of Israel pounding Gaza.
For every story of the West being pro-Israel, there's another one saying they shouldn't go too far or that they've lost sympathy altogether. Unless we have solid data (not mere anecdotes) showing decisive long-term shifts one way or the other, we should default to assuming events will roughly follow the status quo.
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Notes -
I think Israel will do just fine with «if you kill your enemies, you win» logic.
As Netanyahu (easily an intellectual and moral peer to those founders) has said five years ago:
There's only one problem with this: Israel is fairly dependent on the outside community for support. They can't afford to turn into a pariah state by ethnically cleansing Palestinians from Gaza.
Here's the solution (if the problem ever presents itself): Diaspora members commit to obstruct hiring for "supporters of Hamas" and nobody makes Israel a pariah state. Indians are already aware of this technique.
Diaspora Jews are neither monolithic enough nor centrally coordinated enough to make this feasible. Palestinians have a nontrivial amount of support in the West which is why Israel hasn't been able to solve the problem despite decades of conflict, and this is showing no likelihood of change anytime soon.
At this point I don't know if you're joking or not.
I am not. Seeing AGP transsexual, BLM-fists, colored-hair, tear-down-patriarchy, immigrants-welcome, religion-sucks, Israel-is-a-colonial-power, Bibi-is-a-fascist Jews in my network absolutely froth at the mouths and clamor for genocide (supported by kind Christian doctors), I do not believe that the Diaspora will need any more coordination on this topic than long-standing Zionist organizations and the collective shaming of dissenters by people who've just lost their relatives (and Jews tend to be acutely aware of their distant cousins and aunts, so there are very very many Jews in mourning now), and their friends, provide. Crucially, I do not believe there is very much capacity and coordination needed to overcome lobbying of Palestinians, or even broadly Muslims.
But we shall see – both how this goes, and what it costs Israel. For now I predict that there won't be genocide (@2rafa, probably referencing the idea of "decimation", tentatively defines it as "200,000 or more Gazan casualties" and I'm inclined to agree, so – there'll be less then that), and there won't be any lasting cost in the West.
Saudis sure are embarrassed already, though.
Have to say I really haven’t seen much of this. The biggest frothers are the already hardcore Zionists, often outright conservative aligned even if never Trump. The numerical bulk, at least in my social circles, slightly less extreme, are lawyer and gym owner and dance instructor and and finance types who obviously vote Democrat and maybe had a black square on Instagram in 2020 , but they’re not blue hair AGP ‘Israel is an apartheid state’ types at all. Those mostly posted both side messages, and are now back to the regularly scheduled Palestineposting about Gazan civilians and open air prison etc.
I am not saying they are representative of their group, just that it has reached even that group; and the moral sanction for ethnic cleansing won't be as hard to procure as their usual sympathies suggest.
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Except it looks that they are, the storm of doxxing, deplatforming and cancelling everyone showing the slightest sympathy to Hamas is impressive, not even non-binary persons of color are spared this time.
Not any more. Peak Palestine moment was probably the Second Intifada, around the time of "Battle of Jenin", this objectively rather minor affair was at the time headline news worldwide and treated like new Stalingrad battle.
Since then, Palestine cause was downgraded and now the gloves are coming off. France bans pro-Palestinian protests and Germany promises crackdown on burning Israeli flag.
The Palestine moment is over, expect Palestinian symbols and sympathizers to be treated like Nazi ones (no, this does not mean being celebrated by Canadian parliament).
edit: links
The Harvard doxxing truck isn't evidence of much since it was condemned by most people on campus, including the Harvard Hillel. People have been giving Israel a pass due to the warcrimes of Hamas like the decapitated babies, but that'll end in a few news cycles when there's been nothing but story after story of Israel pounding Gaza.
For every story of the West being pro-Israel, there's another one saying they shouldn't go too far or that they've lost sympathy altogether. Unless we have solid data (not mere anecdotes) showing decisive long-term shifts one way or the other, we should default to assuming events will roughly follow the status quo.
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