naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
The Israel-Palestine conflict is by far the most complicated Geo-Political conflict of modern times, and there's really no good answer to how this will end.
The conflict isn't actually complicated at all. Both sides value something they don't consider fungible, and have for half a century been unwilling to share. Precise details about who did what and to whom all fade into muddy morass of irreconcilable ideals.
There are few good ideas for how anything will end, that's a perk of living just before the Singularity, unless we hit the brakes harder and even less plausibly than the participants of this inter-Abrahamic squabble. Whether everything will end poorly or in utopia is unknown to me, but I'm confident enough in excluding the middle, which is business as usual forecasting past maybe 5 years.
Does anyone else notice that the majority of online discourse about these foreign wars are often made as if they are being played out in some RTS video game? I see many takes that suggest that due to Israels military superiority, Hamas complete and utter destruction is simply inevitable, and will come swiftly once Israel deploys their infantry into Gaza
If you think the hot takes from gamers are bad, then wait till you see the opinions of the man or woman on the street who calls everything remotely resembling an AK an AK-47, or refers to any scary gun as an assault weapon.
Playing lots of RTS games might not make you competent at geopolitics and military campaigning, but it can't make you worse than a baseline. I've seen enough actual combat footage and documentaries, while also experiencing digitally the sheer pain and suffering that is either trying to survive as an insurgent when your enemies have Apaches and drones, or being a soldier in a conventional military trying to take a urban population center with civilians with an ROE that isn't glassing the place. Even if you do blow everything up, as the Russians have tried their best do in Ukraine, it really doesn't deter a determined defender dug in harder than an Alabama tick. We've known that since Stalingrad at the latest.
Both sides will suffer, but Hamas is going to cry first.
Why?
Does this not completely stand in the way of all prior evidence and attempts by far greater military powers to dismantle extremist terrorism in their territories? America controlled Afghanistan for twenty years and was still unable to dismantle the Taliban, and once they left they quickly took power in the region again
China seems to be doing quite well in pacifying Xinjiang, because they lack the same hangups that powers like the US or the rest of NATO have when it comes to stomping the boot on your enemy's face till they lack the teeth to bite or the brains to contemplate armed resistance. The Russians pacified Chechnya too, even if it cost them dearly.
A lump sum of violence delivered effectively and as brutally as necessary seems to clearly outweigh the total amount paid in blood when you seek small installments and easy copays.
And Hamas has just given Israel a casus belli that lets them take off the kid gloves, for a good while, and even if the usual suspects cry, they're impotent to stop them, likely within a timeframe where Israel can knock the fight out of them.
We'll see soon enough, this conflict can't literally drag on forever, not even till Heath Death.
And I want to echo this. Israel is not subject to international opinion in its treatment of Gaza right now. The consequences of turning it into a rubble heap, putting it under a starvation siege for a year, and then deporting the survivors(unless they’re military aged males, those go to a prison camp forever) will be a UN resolution, some strongly worded notes, and that’s about it.
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Notes -
The conflict isn't actually complicated at all. Both sides value something they don't consider fungible, and have for half a century been unwilling to share. Precise details about who did what and to whom all fade into muddy morass of irreconcilable ideals.
There are few good ideas for how anything will end, that's a perk of living just before the Singularity, unless we hit the brakes harder and even less plausibly than the participants of this inter-Abrahamic squabble. Whether everything will end poorly or in utopia is unknown to me, but I'm confident enough in excluding the middle, which is business as usual forecasting past maybe 5 years.
If you think the hot takes from gamers are bad, then wait till you see the opinions of the man or woman on the street who calls everything remotely resembling an AK an AK-47, or refers to any scary gun as an assault weapon.
Playing lots of RTS games might not make you competent at geopolitics and military campaigning, but it can't make you worse than a baseline. I've seen enough actual combat footage and documentaries, while also experiencing digitally the sheer pain and suffering that is either trying to survive as an insurgent when your enemies have Apaches and drones, or being a soldier in a conventional military trying to take a urban population center with civilians with an ROE that isn't glassing the place. Even if you do blow everything up, as the Russians have tried their best do in Ukraine, it really doesn't deter a determined defender dug in harder than an Alabama tick. We've known that since Stalingrad at the latest.
Both sides will suffer, but Hamas is going to cry first.
Why?
China seems to be doing quite well in pacifying Xinjiang, because they lack the same hangups that powers like the US or the rest of NATO have when it comes to stomping the boot on your enemy's face till they lack the teeth to bite or the brains to contemplate armed resistance. The Russians pacified Chechnya too, even if it cost them dearly.
A lump sum of violence delivered effectively and as brutally as necessary seems to clearly outweigh the total amount paid in blood when you seek small installments and easy copays.
And Hamas has just given Israel a casus belli that lets them take off the kid gloves, for a good while, and even if the usual suspects cry, they're impotent to stop them, likely within a timeframe where Israel can knock the fight out of them.
We'll see soon enough, this conflict can't literally drag on forever, not even till Heath Death.
And I want to echo this. Israel is not subject to international opinion in its treatment of Gaza right now. The consequences of turning it into a rubble heap, putting it under a starvation siege for a year, and then deporting the survivors(unless they’re military aged males, those go to a prison camp forever) will be a UN resolution, some strongly worded notes, and that’s about it.
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