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Culture War Roundup for the week of October 2, 2023

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Agreed that part of the problem with taxing wages is that businesses can respond by shifting compensation, generally to benefits. That's one of the problems "option 3: Widen the tax base" is trying to account for. Worth noting though that payroll tax is already considered the hardest to dodge:

payroll taxes are very hard to evade. According to the IRS’ criminal enforcement data, investigations into payroll tax abuse make up less than 3 percent of all tax investigations, despite payroll taxes generating about a third of all federal tax revenue.

I'll also note that the (conservative, pro-low tax) Tax Foundation has similarly ambitious estimates for raising the whole cap:

removing the payroll tax cap entirely would lead to $1.8 trillion in additional federal revenue over ten years on a static basis, and primarily impact high-earners. Furthermore, this additional revenue could be used to lower marginal rates on corporate and personal income, growing both wages and GDP by 2.2%, while still raising revenue.

Alternatively you could take the option of raising taxes very slightly on normal people, or even just tax capital directly if we really want to be sure the rich to pay.

Hmm. That significantly changes my priors towards raising the cap significantly improving the health of social security. I do still think the ‘outlays are higher than anyone expected’ problem is going to get worse, however.