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Culture War Roundup for the week of September 18, 2023

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Phonics is a program designed to help poor performing students no? No wonder it did more for black kids. But it is a mirage, like pre-k, the gains evaporate over time and sometimes there is even regression past the mean.

Is it?

The linked discussion was about a reading program instituted in the usual crappy inner-city schools, which showed massive improvements on reading ability by all the school's metrics, with exactly the students who never, ever show massive improvement. And faced with this improvement, the teachers refused to continue the program, because they didn't like teaching it.

Not that it stopped working. Not that the gains weren't sustainable. Not that it only worked with a specially-selected sub-population of students. The kids who couldn't learn to read were learning to read, and the teachers refused to continue the program because doing their fucking jobs was too much of a downer. And we know that this is how it was, not because their private emails leaked, or someone dragged it out of them through FOIA, but because they said so publicly in interviews with the press, apparently oblivious to how fucking monstrous this sounds to anyone with a brain.

Of course, this is only an isolated incident, so it would be irresponsible to imagine that if a whole school system can fuck up this badly and have no one call them on it, maybe others could be suffering similar fuckups, or maybe even that they might be fucking other things up as well. Like when they did a push nation-wide to cap the amount of discipline black students receive, resulting in a total breakdown of school discipline, or when they make it official policy to retain disruptive students despite solid evidence that such students impede the learning of the rest of the class... just minor details like that, you know?

The standard HBD argument is that we've tried all the environmental interventions, they didn't work, so HBD is the only explanation remaining. Only, we haven't tried all the environmental interventions. We tried the environmental interventions popular with the exact set of people who gave us the replication crisis, and no others.

Maybe you're right, it's down to genetics, and there's nothing to be done. I'm willing to accept that after we've burned down the institutions that have been operating with a degree of incompetence indistinguishable from pure malice, forced the people who built and staffed those institutions to accept full personal responsibility for their failure, and then at least tried the things that we have solid reasons to believe would actually work.

And sure, that's not easy to do. And sure, there's no reason to humor the bullshit accusations of racism for even a single second more. But before I'm willing to accept that it's all down to genetics and there's nothing to be done, I want to see a rigorous test of the thesis that actually, this mess is the fucking Progressives' fault.

Not that it stopped working. Not that the gains weren't sustainable. Not that it only worked with a specially-selected sub-population of students. The kids who couldn't learn to read were learning to read, and the teachers refused to continue the program because doing their fucking jobs was too much of a downer.

I totally believe this about teachers. It still flies in the face of everything everywhere that what they were doing was sustainable, and those kids' improvements would persist into their 20s. No educational intervention ever has done that at scale.

Of course, this is only an isolated incident, so it would be irresponsible to imagine that if a whole school system can fuck up this badly and have no one call them on it,

No, actually, that is the most believable part, that the school system would be evil to placate teachers. That is par for the course.

he standard HBD argument is that we've tried all the environmental interventions, they didn't work, so HBD is the only explanation remaining. Only, we haven't tried all the environmental interventions. We tried the environmental interventions popular with the exact set of people who gave us the replication crisis, and no others.

Sure, but if caning black students worked to make them on par with uncaned Asian students, that is still HBD. They would be thriving in completely different environments, and unless the caning persisted into the workplace, there's no reason to expect the caning gap to not reopen.

And sure, there's no reason to humor the bullshit accusations of racism for even a single second more.

But you have to choose which to attack harder. And you've chosen to attack HBD harder, in this post at least, which makes your post, overall, odd. Sure HBD is sorta the topic of this thread. But in the subthread it is HBD within the context of the education complex, which is a complex dominated by progressive spaghetti monsters, so any anti-HBD point would, appropriately be a tiny appendix at the end of a bunch of discussion about how BS the idea of systemic racism was. Like 30 lines about that bs, then a meek comment like, "and the HBDers are like 23% more confident than I am comfortable with."

I agree losing phonics is bad, but throughout the phonics discussion a consistent theme is 'for better-off kids, they don't need phonics, they'll learn to read anyway. for worse-off kids, they need phonics'. It's imagined the worse-off kids are so because their parents aren't teaching them to read at home. I think 'innate capacity for intelligence' is as big of a factor here.

The standard HBD argument is that we've tried all the environmental interventions, they didn't work, so HBD is the only explanation remaining. Only, we haven't tried all the environmental interventions

All of the remaining interventions we have are ones that apply equally to both white and black kids. And we can tell because the IQ gap remains at higher deciles, with both rich and poor black parents. There are a lot of black millionaires, yet no black nobel prize winners.

(also, genes-cause-individual-differences is more important here. Many black kids learn to read fine without phonics. Many, more as a percent than black, white kids learn to read without phonics. If we divide the population up into '<90iq' and '>90iq', the differences in outcomes between the two are so much starker than the differences between white and blacks.)

What is the value of discussing the educational cap of students, when we have solid reasons to believe that we have not hit the educational cap?

We know that Black families completely collapsed. We are pretty sure that this was due to an environmental intervention, because it happened very dramatically, and very suddenly. We are even pretty sure we know what that intervention was: the introduction of no-fault divorce, which did exactly what its critics said it would do, and worse besides. You can claim that blacks are more predisposed to dysfunction than whites; maybe this is true. But the current system is not a physical law, nor even a particularly good idea, and we know for a fact that better results are possible under different systems, because we saw better results before we implemented this system.

Ditto for education and crime and every other damn thing.

And sure, Blacks had relatively worse outcomes previously, all the way back to slavery, but it is my understanding that the gaps do in fact widen and narrow over time, rather than being fixed. Black crime is ~30% worse than it was three years ago. That is not a small increase! It is definately environmental!

It's not as though HBD is some option we are forced into by hard political realities. It is very nearly the least plausible political avenue in all of American politics. It is a dead-end, a kill-zone, the fucking Valley of Death. It offers no practical solutions, no path forward, no actual workable plan. As the above discussion shows, it does not even retain the virtue of honesty, because it is appealed to as a "last resort" by people who claim that no environmental intervention works, while fucking ignoring environmental interventions that absolutely work, specifically because they don't like them.

This behavior displeases me, and I think it deserves to be called out.

I agree that black crime is clearly not a genetic inevitability independent of culture, and is basically cultural. White people of similar incomes or similar IQs commit crime at lower rates. Black crime and crime culture would end quickly if the state/elites were willing to use sufficient force to end it and change the culture (and no democratic constituency successfully opposed it). You could draw a parallel to criminal gangs of other cultures in american history that have since assimilated and now have low crime rates.

I think there probably is an indirect genetic contribution to single motherhood, as lower IQ whites also have higher rates of that, but that is also mostly cultural, and could easily be another way, as it was in the past.

I do think most of the black-white IQ gap is genetic, though. As intuitive evidence - there's a wide variety in black experience of America. Quite a few rich black families, 20% of black households have 100k+ income. Why are there so few high-achieving black scientists (and so many jewish ones)? And white kids in single-parent homes - I haven't seen this, but I'd strongly suspect they score better than black kids in similar single-parent homes with similar incomes. I think poor schools impact white and black kids of similar incomes/IQs in about the same way, and the gap remains between them (and of course IQ impacts income somewhat).

It offers no practical solutions, no path forward, no actual workable plan.

We can do embryo selection right now and add '3-8 points' to the 2% of children already born via IVF (by choosing which embryo to implant based on genetic screens, instead of randomly). As technology improves over the next few decades, this kind of thing will just become better and more widely available. (but AI will improve faster, :|)

(Also, we could just have smarter parents donate sperm or sperm/eggs for surrogacy or adopt out babies. This is obviously unworkable as a general policy, because people want to raise their own children. I agree this has all sorts of bad second-order effects, but you can't just notice them and declare it bad, and I think it is probably net positive if you compare the benefits of 'more very smart people'. With gene editing, we'll be able to do 'intelligence genes of smart person, appearance genes of you' and that may be popular).