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Scott Alexander’s review of a 2015 biography of Elon Musk. Elon Musk, to me, is one of the world’s most confusing people. He’s simultaneously both one of the smartest people in the world, creating billions of dollars of value in companies like Tesla and SpaceX, and one of the dumbest, in burning billions on Twitter. Scott’s review I think is a good explanation of what’s up with Musk.
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Notes -
I think Elon Musk is smart-but-not-amazingly-smart, and evidence that intelligence is somewhat overrated.
He doesn't have a particularly high success rate on any individual act or decision - he frequently makes mistakes that have to be corrected, or makes himself look stupid by smashing a car window to prove how "indestructible" it is, or bringing a submarine to rescue kids from a cave so tight that a person can barely squeeze through it.
But he does a lot of stuff, and on average it works, and usually he's willing to learn from mistakes.
Sitting around being smart doesn't achieve anything. Going out there and actually doing shit does - even if you screw things up half the time.
His biggest asset is that he's absolutely shameless. Too many people get frozen into inaction because they worry about what other people will think.
It is incredibly rare to be at the center of so many successful companies (paypal, tesla, space x, starlink...). Regardless of his other traits, he's most certainly good at picking winners.
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The optimal failure rate is not 0. This is why Bezos emphasizes the distinction between reversible and irreversible decisions. You can make the first type of decision quickly and then just undo it if doesn't work out. This might look like bad decision making to an outsider but is more optimal than spending 2 weeks and 5 meetings on a decision instead.
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he's amazing at execution. if anyone can get something done, it is him.
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