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Notes -
At least for Texas the vast majority of the population lives in definitely urban environments in a few major metros(DFW and Houston combined have just over half the state's population, add in San Antonio, Austin, and El Paso there's a supermajority), so I think the data is directionally correct.
How many of those residents would self-identify as "suburban" instead of "urban"?
Because there's a pretty big difference between the political behavior of suburbanites and urbanites.
From what I remember, there was an article from a while back about the majority of Texas identified as suburban. Let me see if I can dig it up.
Edit: Found it. I was thinking of an old 538 article from 2015. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-suburban-are-big-american-cities/ it's ~8 years old at this point, so the percentages could have swung a couple points, but I think the general point still stands.
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