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Reaper Drones over Houston: A War in Mexico Would Mean War in America

open.substack.com

Take I wrote on increasing calls in Republican and bi-partisan spaces for a Military intervention into Mexico against the Cartels, and why this would inevitably lead to armed conflict within America itself, along with a possible death spiral of instability in the wider North American region.

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Well I think his post is ridiculous; but, at the very least, armed intervention without Mexico's approval would spark an international crisis. I think the US armed forces with support from the Mexican government could route the cartels in the same way that the Northern Alliance routed the Taliban with only a handful of US special forces and air support. Some cartel members could hide and try to strike back, but these groups don't have any real ideology other than money and power, unlike the Taliban. Once the money runs dry and with no where to run(unlike the Taliban who retreated into backwater mountain valleys and Pakistan), the cartels would just dissolve. The Central American countries just as corrupt and gang infested as Mexico managed it by themselves.

No one would ever say that a policy that lowered crime by say 20% was pointless, because the crime was still committed in any other context. Who cares if they can find a way around it, the optimal amount of drug trafficking isn't zero. Corner solutions are rarely optimal.