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Notes -
There is literally no possible way to know that a priori once you're faced with the choice.
There's at worst a probability distribution of people picking blue, which includes zero as an option, there might very well be zero who are compelled to pick it.
Further, if you're including people lacking agency, you're including the chance that there are people who PICK RED without it being a choice.
And suddenly this creates the risk of missing the threshold because those red-pickers made the 'wrong' choice.
So there's some real special pleading going on here to assume that we must save people who are helpess to make any decision other than pick blue, when I can just as easily point out that there are a number of people who are helpless to make any other decision than pick RED, and these folks might very well thwart our attempts to coordinate to save those other blue pickers.
There's no reason to assume that people who aren't making rational choices are only picking blue.
So the real meta-question becomes: How many NPCs are there in your population?
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