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It's a fair question, but I still think the framing is off. I'm not adding irrational actors; they're already part of the scenario as written.
Sure, I just don't think there are as many of them as there are pathological altruists, who will choose blue even when blue odds are very low.
Agreed. I like to think I would still choose blue if it came down to it, though, because (valuing my own life equal to others) I simply think it has higher EV.
Maybe? I am kind of working off the assumption that everyone who is capable of participating in the choice is able to at least understand that one choice is "100% chance of survival" even if they can't make complex moral calculations.
I grant that we can't be certain what number of people are irrational, though, which complicates the issue further.
My assumption was that everyone who responded to the poll participates, and this likely includes a few babies and imbeciles.
I mean that seems weird in that how'd they stumble across the poll in the first place?
Unless someone was spreading the poll intentionally to get them involved, which seems risky and possibly evil.
I dunno. It doesn't change my ultimate answer. If I can't know who is and how many are participating in the poll in advance, I'm REALLY not going to try to go for some galaxy-brained play that might backfire.
Well I just mean the actual real-life poll. And yeah that's fair.
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